• UGI USER
  • May 13, 2024
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A WELL-INTENTIONED STUDY AND A DEMOGRAPHIC MYTH

Relevance: GS 2 – Issues relating to development and management of Social Sector/Services relating to Health, Education, Human Resources.

Why in the news?

  • The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PM-EAC) report “Share of religious minorities: A cross-country analysis” suggests all is well with religious minorities in India.
    • The report aims to demonstrate safety and lack of discrimination for minorities, particularly Muslims.
  • However, controversy arises due to timing, reliance on outdated data, and selective highlighting of statistics.

About the Report

  • Hindu population has tripled since 1950, contrasting with a drop in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Muslim women by05 compared to 1.36 for Hindu women.
  • The report fails to mention a significant increase in the share of Buddhists in the population.
    • It also neglects to acknowledge that for every one Muslim, five Hindus were born during the period analyzed.

  • The report leveraged to support the longstanding Hindutva narrative of Hindus being under threat of minority status in their own country.
    • This narrative is juxtaposed with historical contexts, such as Hindu retention of majority status during the period of so-called Muslim rule spanning 800 years.
  • Reference is made to a statement by a Member of Parliament from Unna in 2015, advocating for Hindus to have at least four children.
    • Despite Hindus constituting 80% of India’s population and Muslims at 14.23%, there is skepticism about the validity of fears regarding Hindu majority status.
    • Demographers assert that there is no imminent danger of Hindus losing their majority status.

Perception of ‘Population Jihad’

  • Some leaders exploit population growth to propagate the idea of ‘population jihad’ and the fear of India becoming an Islamic state.
  • The narrative finds echoes in historical literature like Upendra Nath Mukerji’s “A Dying Race,” published over a century ago, which suggested Hindu numbers were dwindling and might just disappear like the indigenous population of New Zealand.
    • Mukerji acknowledged there was no actual decrease in Hindu numbers but questioned whether higher fertility rates should be the sole determinant of a group’s status.

Factors Beyond Population Growth

  • Higher fertility rates can indicate factors like illiteracy and poor economic conditions rather than inherent well-being.
  • The educational, social, and economic conditions of a group are better indicators of its share in the national landscape.
  • Representation in the state’s power structure is crucial for assessing a group’s well-being.

Government Response and International Perspective

  • The Union Finance Minister, in a speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) in the U.S., referenced India’s growing Muslim population as evidence of their well-being.
    • She countered perceptions of Muslim difficulties by highlighting population growth since 1947.
  • India indeed has the second-largest Muslim population globally, according to the President of India in 2023, and is projected to have the largest Hindu and Muslim populations by 2050.
    • Indian Muslims enjoy greater rights compared to religious minorities in Muslim-majority countries, particularly in South Asia.
    • The Finance Minister emphasized that Muslims in India fare better than those in Pakistan.

Reevaluation of Population Growth as a Parameter

  • Population growth isn’t a comprehensive indicator of a group’s status within the country’s political framework.
  • High fertility rates often correlate with educational, social, and economic backwardness.
  • The steepest decline in fertility rates among Muslims has been observed alongside increasing literacy rates.
  • Data from Census and Observations: Census data from 2001 to 2011 shows a decline in decadal growth rates for both Muslim (from 36.02% to 24.04%) and Hindu populations (from 20.35% to 16.76%).
    • Muslim Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 2.36, nearing the replacement rate of 2.1, with a significant drop from 3.59 in 1998-99.
    • Hindu TFR stands at94, leading demographers to predict stabilization of the Muslim population at 18.8% and Hindus retaining a majority at 74.7% by the end of the century.

International Recognition and Regional Disparities

  • The United Nations Population Fund noted India’s population growth stabilization in 2022, with many states achieving fertility rates below replacement levels.
    • The Lancet Study predicts further decline in the replacement level to as low as 75 in the next three years.
  • Regional disparities exist:
    • Bihar, known for its poverty, exhibits the highest fertility rate in India.
    • The Hindu fertility rates of Bihar (2.88) and Uttar Pradesh (2.29) surpass the Muslim fertility rates in states like Kerala (2.25), Tamil Nadu (1.93), Andhra Pradesh (1.97), and Telangana (2.01).

Assessment of Demographic Changes and Policy Initiatives

  • Despite propaganda, there is no concrete evidence supporting an alarming increase in the Muslim population in Assam.
    • Between the Census of 2001 and 2011, Assam’s population increased by 17.07%, slightly lower than the national average of 17.7%.
    • Comparing the 1981 and 2011 Censuses, Assam’s population decreased from 23.36% to 17.07%, contradicting claims of a significant Muslim population surge.
    • Illegal Muslim infiltration from Bangladesh is often cited as a cause for demographic changes in Assam, but growth rates in other states surpass Assam’s, including Nagaland (10.13%), Punjab (3.79%), Haryana (3.22%), and Madhya Pradesh (3.00%).

 Legislative Initiatives and Demographer Opposition:

  • A private member’s Bill called The Population Regulation Bill, 2019, aimed at population control, was introduced in the Rajya Sabha but later withdrawn.
  • Subsequently, Rajendra Agrawal proposed The Population (Control) Bill, 2021, yet the Narendra Modi government refrained from endorsing coercive measures.
  • Despite a significant drop in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Uttar Pradesh, the Yogi Adityanath government proposed the Uttar Pradesh Population Policy 2021-2030, or Uttar Pradesh (Control, Stabilization, and Welfare) Bill, 2021.
    • Assam also introduced a similar population policy in 2021, but demographers oppose the idea of controlling population through legislation.

Emphasis on Socio-Cultural Factors in Population Policy

  • The National Population Policy, 2000, under the first National Democratic Alliance government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee, prioritized socio-cultural factors such as age at marriage, age at birth, girl education, maternal and child health, and voluntary and informed consent.
    • These policies favored voluntary and informed decisions over coercive methods, aligning with international norms and commitments.
  • International Commitments and Human Rights Standards: As a signatory to international covenants like the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), India is bound by international norms on population control.
    • The United Nations’ Human Rights Committee mandates that state parties to ICCPR cannot enforce compulsory, coercive, or discriminatory population policies.
  • Government Acknowledgement of Coercive Policies: The Modi government, in a December 2020 affidavit filed in the Supreme Court of India, admitted that coercion to control population leads to demographic distortions, based on international experiences.
  • Focus on Education and Empowerment: To address concerns about population growth, especially within the Muslim community, emphasis should be placed on the education and economic empowerment of Muslim girls.
    • Policies should aim to remove educational backwardness among Muslims, as criticized policies termed as ‘appeasement,’ and failure to address educational disparities may contribute to higher Total Fertility Rates (TFR) without just grievances.

Way Forward to Population Policy

  • Education Empowerment: Implement comprehensive education initiatives, especially targeting girls and marginalized communities, to increase awareness about family planning, reproductive health, and gender equality.
  • Healthcare Access: Strengthen healthcare infrastructure, especially in rural and underserved areas, to ensure accessible and affordable maternal and child health services.
    • Provide family planning counseling and contraceptive services as part of routine healthcare, promoting informed decision-making regarding family size and spacing.
  • Community Engagement: Facilitate community-based interventions, including awareness campaigns, peer education programs, and involvement of local leaders and influencers, to promote positive attitudes towards family planning and reproductive health.
    • Encourage dialogue and open discussions on cultural norms, gender roles, and reproductive rights to address barriers to contraceptive use and family planning.
  • Policy Support: Align population policies with international standards and commitments, ensuring compliance with human rights principles and non-coercive approaches.

Associated Articles

https://universalinstitutions.com/demography-census/

Source: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-well-intentioned-study-and-a-demographic-myth/article68168538.ece

Mains question

Examine the socio-cultural factors influencing population policies in India, with a focus on the National Population Policy, 2000. Analyze the implications of coercive measures in population control. (250 words)