Navigating India-US Relations Beyond the Pakistan Trap

Navigating India-US Relations Beyond the Pakistan Trap

Syllabus:

GS-2:

Bilateral Groupings & Agreements, Effect of Policies & Politics of Countries on India’s Interests, Indian Diaspora, Groupings & Agreements Involving India and/or Affecting India’s Interests

Focus:

Recent remarks by former U.S. President Donald Trump, which appeared sympathetic towards Pakistan, have sparked dismay in India and rekindled the debate on America’s inconsistent stance on the India-Pakistan conflict. These developments underscore the need for India to approach its US-India relations with strategic realism and avoid falling into the India-Pakistan hyphenation trap. The complex interplay of India-Pakistan relations, Pakistan-US relations, and the broader strategic nexus in South Asia demands a nuanced understanding of the balance of power in the region, especially considering China’s role in South Asia and the growing focus on China containment strategies.

India’s Disappointment with the U.S. Approach:

Persistent U.S. Equivalence of India and Pakistan

• Trump’s past and recent comments have shown praise for Pakistan and its counterterrorism efforts, drawing criticism in India and highlighting the delicate nature of US-Pakistan relations, including ongoing US-Pakistan military cooperation.
• The U.S. consistently contextualizes India-Pakistan tensions, including cross-border terrorism, within the framework of the Kashmir dispute, reflecting the complexities of US foreign policy in South Asia and its attempts to balance regional relationships.
• This equates the aggressor (Pakistan) and the victim (India), portraying both as equal contributors to South Asian instability, which complicates the strategic nexus of the region and ignores the nuances of Pakistan’s foreign policy.

Misplaced Expectations from Strategic Rhetoric

• India’s frustration stems from the gap between American rhetoric (e.g., “defining partnership of the 21st century”) and actual policy moves, particularly in the context of India-US defense cooperation and shared economic interests.
• Despite high-profile bilateral summits and Quad engagements, U.S. responses to issues like Pahalgam or Balakot strike a dissonant note, reflecting the complex balance of power in South Asia and the ongoing geopolitical shift in the region.
• The Indian public, influenced by media and think tank narratives, often overlooks America’s transactional behavior in maintaining its strategic nexus with both India and Pakistan, including its considerations of nuclear concerns in the region and potential China containment strategies.

Historical Patterns in U.S. Conduct and India’s Strategic Response:

Recurring Strains and Realignments

• Incidents such as the 2001 Parliament attack and the 2002 Kaluchak massacre led to U.S. diplomacy favoring conflict prevention, not justice for terrorism victims, highlighting the challenges in India-Pakistan diplomatic ties and the complexities of balancing regional relationships.
• India has repeatedly navigated through such strains by re-focusing on areas of mutual interest, moving past the hyphenated lens and working towards South Asian regional stability, while also addressing its own economic interests.

Pivoting to Broader Strategic Engagement

• India’s strategic pivot came post-2000, especially after Bill Clinton’s acknowledgment of Pakistan’s role in J&K violence, marking a shift in the strategic nexus of the region and India’s approach to regional dynamics.
• Post-2005 saw a shift toward:

○ Technology cooperation, including discussions on US technology transfer to India

○ Defence agreements, strengthening India-US defense cooperation

○ The civil nuclear deal

○ Export control regimes

○ Focus on the Indo-Pacific and emerging technologies, addressing Indo-Pacific security challenges and the broader geopolitical shift in the region, including efforts towards China containment

Contemporary Dynamics and the Indo-Pacific Theatre:

Avoiding the “India-Pakistan Trap”

• The U.S. institutional view still sees South Asia through an India-Pakistan prism, despite growing India-U.S. convergence on larger geopolitical matters, reflecting the persistent influence of Pakistan’s strategic importance in US foreign policy and the ongoing balance of power considerations.
• However, successive administrations (Obama, Trump, Biden) have increasingly sought to insulate US-India relations from Pakistan-linked disruptions, recognizing the need to balance various strategic interests in the region, including the aftermath of the Afghanistan withdrawal and the growing emphasis on containing China’s influence.

Emerging Strategic Initiatives

• Newer avenues like the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) reflect a strategic decoupling from the traditional South Asia narrative, focusing on critical minerals and technological cooperation to address shared economic interests and potential China containment efforts.
• Yet, any major terror incident has the potential to drag the relationship back into the India-Pakistan vortex, causing policy hesitation from the U.S. and potentially disrupting the strategic nexus of the region, especially given ongoing nuclear concerns.

Realism in Strategic Expectations:

US is Not a Strategic Shield

• India must acknowledge that the U.S. or Quad will not intervene militarily on its behalf, including against China, understanding the limits of the US-India partnership in the face of geopolitical shifts and China’s growing role in South Asia.
• Similarly, India cannot be expected to support U.S. military campaigns globally or endorse all U.S. policies, reflecting the strategic constraints inherent in the relationship and the need to balance its own economic interests.

Persistent U.S. Interest in Pakistan

• Despite strategic ties with India, Washington values its relations with Islamabad, especially for Afghanistan stability and as part of its ‘friend-on-friend’ diplomacy, highlighting the ongoing importance of US-Pakistan relations and US-Pakistan military cooperation.
• The U.S. seeks to maintain balance rather than clear support for India in bilateral tensions, reflecting the complex balance of power dynamics in South Asia and the influence of Pakistan’s foreign policy on regional stability.

The Road Ahead: Redefining India’s Diplomatic Strategy

Adaptation in a Changing Global Order

• The global order post-Cold War, which framed US-India relations, has significantly changed, necessitating a reevaluation of the strategic nexus in South Asia in light of ongoing geopolitical shifts and the increasing focus on China containment.
• Trump’s transactional approach only accelerated this flux, and future U.S. presidents may continue this interest-based orientation, such as a “U.S.-plus-One” model, potentially impacting Pakistan’s economic development and regional dynamics, including considerations of the Afghanistan withdrawal.

Broader Strategic Outreach and Internal Reforms

• India must:

○ Expand ties beyond the U.S., from its neighbourhood to global partnerships, to diversify its strategic nexus and address the changing balance of power in the region.

○ Ensure domestic reforms in economy, innovation, education, and skills to maximize the benefits of external engagement and address potential economic stagnation, while also strengthening its position in light of China’s role in South Asia.

Leveraging the U.S. for India’s Development Goals

• The U.S. remains vital for:

○ Markets, finance, high-tech collaboration

○ Energy transition, education, and mobility of talent

○ Limited but valuable defense cooperation, including potential mineral investments to address shared economic interests

Mutual Responsibility for Strategic Maturity

• India must develop the capacity to balance competing global interests within the complex strategic nexus of South Asia, considering the ongoing geopolitical shift and China’s growing influence in the region.
• The U.S., if serious about a long-term partnership, must address recurring shadows like its ambiguity on Pakistan and terrorism, considering the broader implications for the balance of power in the region and the complexities of Pakistan’s foreign policy.

Conclusion:

US-India relations must evolve beyond emotional reactions and unrealistic expectations. Strategic autonomy and realism should guide India’s approach as it navigates a shifting world order and the complex balance of power in South Asia. While the U.S. remains a vital partner for India’s development and global positioning, New Delhi must invest in diversified, balanced, and principle-driven diplomacy, not clouded by the past or by recurring triggers involving Pakistan.

The India-US-Pakistan triangle continues to shape South Asian geopolitics, with China’s role adding further complexity to the strategic nexus. As India pursues its Indo-Pacific strategy and strengthens its strategic partnership with the U.S., it must also remain cognizant of the delicate balance of power in the region. The emerging technologies initiative and focus on critical minerals present new avenues for cooperation, but challenges such as energy security, supply chain security, and regional stability persist, especially in light of ongoing nuclear concerns and the aftermath of the Afghanistan withdrawal.

To navigate these complex dynamics, India needs to leverage its growing economic interests and trade relations with the U.S. while maintaining strategic relevance in the region. This requires a nuanced approach that acknowledges the US interest in Pakistan while advancing India’s own strategic interests. By focusing on areas such as counterterrorism cooperation, Indo-Pacific engagement, and addressing shared concerns about China containment, India can strengthen its position in the strategic nexus of South Asian politics.

Ultimately, the success of US-India relations will depend on both nations’ ability to align their strategic interests, navigate potential conflicts, and build a partnership that contributes to regional security and global stability. As the geopolitical landscape continues to shift, India’s diplomatic outreach and policy options must evolve to meet new challenges while capitalizing on opportunities for growth and cooperation, all within the context of the ever-evolving strategic nexus of South Asia and the broader geopolitical shifts occurring on the global stage.

Source: Hindustan Times

Mains Practice Question:

Discuss the significance of strategic realism in US-India relations in light of recurring disruptions caused by U.S. responses to India-Pakistan tensions. How can India balance its developmental needs with strategic autonomy in a changing global order? (Answer in 250 words)