Four years on, Myanmar and its continuing nightmare

Syllabus:

GS 2: India and its neighbourhood couuntries

Why in the News?

Recently, Myanmar’s prolonged turmoil highlights the inability of global and regional actors to mediate effectively, leaving internal dialogue as the only viable solution to end its persistent crisis.

Four years on, Myanmar and its continuing nightmare

Introduction

  • Myanmar’s ongoing crisis, triggered by the 2021 military coup, has plunged the nation into violence, economic collapse, and political instability.
  • With widespread internal displacement, human rights violations, and ineffective international interventions, the situation remains grim.
  • Divided governance, persistent armed conflicts, and regional geopolitical complexities underscore the urgent need for dialogue to address the suffering of Myanmar’s people.

Myanmar’s ongoing crisis: a four -year battle

  • Myanmar has struggled since the military coup February 1, 2021.
  • The economy is in ruins, with limited opportunities for recovery.
  • Poverty and unemployment have surged, leaving millions in distress.
  • Despite ongoing chaos, the global community, except ASEAN and neighbors like China and India, has largely ignored Myanmar’s crisis.

4 Years of Unrest and Suffering

  • Over the past four years, Myanmar has faced relentless armed battles across cities, villages, and even the heartland inhabited by the Bamar majority.
  • Government troops have clashed with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and people’s defense forces (PDFs) throughout the north, south, east, and west.
  • These groups are broadly coordinated by the unrecognized National Unity Government (NUG), symbolizing the people’s resistance against military rule.

Humanitarian Crisis

  • The ongoing conflict has caused immense suffering.
  • According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), by January 29, 2025, the military had arrested 28,405 individuals, of whom 21,683 remain detained.
  • Over 6,224 people have been killed, while 2,900 deaths await verification.
  • Furthermore, more than 3.3 million people are now internally displaced, with communities devastated by violence.

Human Rights Violations

  • Independent reports describe the junta’s actions as “indiscriminate attacks” and “unlawful killings,” marked by extreme brutality.
  • Continuous fighting has also weakened military personnel, leading to casualties, injuries, desertions, and declining morale.
  • Experts, such as Professor Zachary M. Abuza from the National War College, note that the military’s grip on power is slipping as Myanmar enters its fifth year under military rule.

Division of Territory

  • Myanmar is now divided into three zones.
  • The central region remains under military control, while resistance groups dominate the peripheral areas.
  • Civilian regions in both zones suffer from ongoing armed battles and aerial bombardments.

Struggle for Stability

  • The prolonged conflict has plunged Myanmar into a war of attrition, with neither side emerging as a clear victor.
  • As instability persists, the people of Myanmar are haunted by the inner demons of violence, displacement, and despair.

Myanmar’s Crisis: Elections and Mediation Efforts

Roots of the Crisis

  • The crisis in Myanmar began in early 2021 when the military rejected the results of the November 2020 elections, which saw Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy emerge victorious.
  • The 10-year experiment with limited democracy was abruptly terminated when the military staged a coup, rolling tanks into the streets and seizing power.

Military’s Election Strategy

  • To resolve the ongoing deadlock, the military has ironically proposed holding new elections. They attempted this last year but failed.
  • With half the country under the control of resistance forces, even if elections are held, they are unlikely to represent the true will of the people.
  • Furthermore, conducting elections amidst violence and suppression raises questions about their legitimacy.
  • Any resulting government is likely to be aligned with the military, further deepening doubts about the process.

United Nations’ Viewpoint

  • United Nations experts, led by Tom Andrews, the Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Myanmar, have strongly criticized the military’s election plans.
  • They argue that elections cannot be credible under the current conditions of violence, arrests, torture, and executions of opposition leaders.
  • Experts have described the idea of elections resolving the political crisis as “delusional.”

ASEAN’s Role in Mediation

  • The UN has delegated the responsibility of mediation to ASEAN.
  • Despite ASEAN’s efforts, its Five-Point Consensus (5PC), which called for the cessation of violence and the start of dialogue, remains ineffective as both parties refuse to compromise.

Recent Developments

  • ASEAN Foreign Ministers recently urged the military to prioritize dialogue over elections.
  • However, the military has dismissed these calls, further complicating efforts to resolve the crisis.

Neighbours and the Myanmar Crisis: Challenges and Realities

  • With the United Nations and ASEAN unable to resolve Myanmar’s crisis, experts suggest that neighbouring countries such as China, India, Thailand, Bangladesh, and Laos should take meaningful actions.
  • The ongoing conflict directly threatens their regional stability and interests.

Key Challenges for Neighbours

  • Border Control Issues: Myanmar’s borders with India and Bangladesh are controlled by Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) rather than the government.
  • Trust Deficits: Relations between India and China remain strained, preventing effective collaboration.
  • India-Bangladesh Tensions: Political and other disputes between India and Bangladesh further hinder regional consensus.
  • Thailand’s Limited Role: As a major neighbour and ASEAN member, Thailand is positioned to mediate but lacks the capacity to overcome its limitations.

China’s Dominance

  • Since the coup, China has increased its influence in Myanmar.
  • It remains the only external power with the resources and intent to shape internal dynamics.
  • As Western nations show diminishing interest, China continues to solidify its role as a dominant player in Myanmar’s affairs.

Ugly Reality for Myanmar’s People

  • Given the inability of regional and global powers to bring about peace, Myanmar’s people must rely on their leaders.
  • Without meaningful dialogue between the government and opposition, the conflict will persist, leaving the citizens to bear the tragic consequences.
  • External help remains elusive, highlighting the urgent need for internal reconciliation.

Conclusion

Myanmar’s path for peace depends on internal dialogue and harmony. External intervention are limited, and unless the leaders prioritize negotiations over violence, people will continue to face political and humanitarian crisis in the country.

Source: The Hindu

Mains Practice Question:

Myanmar’s ongoing political crisis has led to internal fragmentation and external indifference.” Discuss the role of ASEAN and neighboring countries in resolving the conflict.