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ANALYZING THE PROGRESSION OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

Why in the News ?

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has reached its six-month mark, characterized by dynamic developments and strategic shifts.

Source: The Hindu

Challenges in Ukraine’s Counteroffensive:

• Struggling Counteroffensive: Despite initiating a much-anticipated counteroffensive with Western backing, Ukraine encounters obstacles in achieving significant breakthroughs on the battlefield.

• Quest for Military Assistance: President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent diplomatic endeavours in Washington and European capitals underscore Ukraine’s urgent need for sustained military aid.
• Setbacks and Obstacles:
• Challenges surfaced as Ukrainian forces faced formidable Russian defences, minefields, and electronic warfare.
• Attempts to reach the Sea of Azov were thwarted, and breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defences proved challenging.

Current Status of Russia:

• Russian Advancements:
• Russia, initially forced to retreat, has gained a strategic advantage.
• President Putin’s announcement of partial mobilization and reinforcement of defence lines signals a shift in favour of Russia.

• Military Strengthening and Production Surge:
• Russia’s military industrial base has been reinvigorated, doubling tank production.
• Acquiring drones from Iran and ammunition from North Korea enhances Russia’s war capabilities.
• Impact of Sanctions:
  • Western sanctions impact Russia’s economy but fall short of severely hindering its war machine.
  • Diversification of energy trade routes and markets buffers against sanctions.

Challenges to Western Support:

• Diminishing Western Support:
  • As Ukraine’s counteroffensive faces challenges, support from the U.S. and the EU diminishes.
  • Reports suggest encouragement for Ukraine to engage in talks with Russia.
• S. Aid Concerns:
  • Republicans blocking a spending bill raises concerns about sustained U.S. aid.
  • Declining U.S. public support and nuanced commitments from President Biden indicate wavering backing.

Future Scenarios and Uncertainties:

• Putin’s Conditions for Peace: President Putin emphasizes that peace with Ukraine hinges on achieving objectives, suggesting a reluctance for immediate talks.
• Ukraine’s Winter Strategy: With winter approaching and a stagnant frontline, Ukraine may devise a new strategy in the coming year to break the gridlock.
• Impact of Presidential Elections: Growing uncertainty in the U.S. as elections approach, with potential implications for Ukraine’s outlook.

 As the conflict persists with no clear resolution, Ukraine’s dependence on continuous Western aid becomes pivotal for its sustained efforts against Russia.