India’s Total Fertility Rate Stable at 2.0

India’s Total Fertility Rate Stable at 2.0

Why in the News ?

The Sample Registration System (SRS) 2021 report released by the Registrar-General of India shows that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) remains steady at 2.0, with Bihar recording the highest and West Bengal and Delhi the lowest rates.

India’s Total Fertility Rate Stable at 2.0

Key Fertility and Demographic Trends:

  • India’s TFR remains at 0 in 2021, unchanged from 2020.
  • Bihar recorded the highest TFR at 0, while Delhi and West Bengal reported the lowest at 1.4.
  • The replacement level TFR of 1 has been achieved nationally.
  • States with TFR below 2.1 include Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab, among others.
  • SRS survey was conducted in 8,842 units covering 84 lakh population across all states.

Shifting Age Demographics

  • The population aged 0-14 years declined from 2% (1971) to 24.8% (2021).
  • The 15-59 years age group rose from 4% to 66.2%, indicating a larger working-age population.
  • Elderly population (60+) increased from 6% to 9%; 65+ population rose from 3% to 5.9%.
  • Kerala has the highest share of elderly (60+) at 4%, followed by Tamil Nadu (12.9%) and Himachal Pradesh (12.3%).

Policy Implications and Marriage Trends

  • The mean age of female marriage rose from 3 years (1990) to 22.5 years (2021).
  • The 2024 Interim Budget proposed a high-power committee to address demographic changes and population growth—yet to be formed.
  • A comprehensive picture awaits the decadal Census, pending since 2021.
  • SRS continues as the largest demographic survey offering annual estimates on fertility and mortality.

About Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Its Declining Trend in India :

●     Total Fertility Rate (TFR): Average number of children a woman (aged 15–49) is expected to have during her lifetime.

●     Replacement Level Fertility: Defined as 2.1 children per woman, ensuring population stability across generations.

●     Below Replacement TFR: When TFR is below 2.1, the population begins to decline over time, absent migration.

●     India’s Current TFR: Stands at 2.0 as per the SRS 2021 report, below the replacement level.

●     Trend: Majority of Indian states now report TFR below 2.1, indicating a nationwide fertility decline.

●     Implication: Reflects a shift towards smaller families, delayed marriages, and improved women’s education and health.