INDIA MUST RETHINK ITS ARCTIC OUTLOOK

Relevance: GS 2 – Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests

Why in the News?

  • The Arctic, traditionally a zone of scientific collaboration and environmental preservation, is witnessing rising geopolitical tensions.
  • Military and strategic competition in the region is intensifying due to shifting global power dynamics.
  • Russia has become increasingly assertive in expanding its military and economic footprint in the Arctic.
  • China is stepping up its Arctic engagement through infrastructure investments and scientific missions, despite not being an Arctic nation.
  • The United States is showing renewed strategic interest in Greenland and Arctic governance.
  • As global conflict zones grow, the Arctic is emerging as a new theatre of international rivalry and strategic contestation.

INDIA MUST RETHINK ITS ARCTIC OUTLOOK

Arctic’s Strategic Shift: Key Drivers

  • The Arctic’s transition from a peripheral zone to a focal point of global power politics is driven by more than geopolitical rivalries.
  • Climate change has played a crucial role by melting ice and making the region more accessible.
  • New maritime routes and resource frontiers have emerged, prompting a race for access and control.
  • The Northern Sea Route (NSR), previously navigable only during brief summer periods, is now nearly a year-round passage.
  • Rising traffic along the NSR could reshape global trade routes, enhancing the Arctic’s strategic and economic significance.

Concerns

A Growing Militarisation in the Arctic

  • The Arctic is witnessing increasing militarisation, with states reopening military bases, deploying submarines, and making assertive territorial claims.
  • This militarisation accompanies the region’s growing commercial and strategic value.
  • The trend of using Arctic presence for broader geopolitical leverage is not new but is gaining momentum.
  • In 2019, S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to buy Greenland—though ridiculed—reflected a strategic recognition of the Arctic’s centrality to global power dynamics.

Implications for Non-Arctic Powers and India

●      For non-Arctic states like India, the militarisation of the Arctic presents serious strategic implications.

●      However, India remains largely detached from the region’s shifting security dynamics, focusing instead on challenges closer to home.

●      New Delhi’s response has been largely passive, despite the growing importance of the Arctic in global geopolitics.

India’s Arctic Policy 2022: Strengths and Gaps

  • India’s 2022 Arctic Policy emphasizes climate science, environmental protection, and sustainable development.
  • It draws conceptual strength from similarities between the Arctic and the Himalayan “Third Pole” linking polar changes to South Asia’s water and monsoon systems.
  • However, the policy understates the strategic and security shifts occurring in the region.

The Risk of Marginalisation

  • As Arctic powers pivot from cooperative science to geopolitical contestation, India’s neutral, science-focused approach risks marginalisation.
  • The earlier approach of staying apolitical now seems outdated given the changing geopolitical landscape.
  • India is absent from major strategic dialogues on Arctic access and governance.
  • India remains detached from the emerging politics of influence in the Far North.

India’s Presence: Limited and Outdated Tools

  • India maintains a research station in Svalbard, participates in polar expeditions, and holds observer status in the Arctic Council.
  • These tools were designed for a more cooperative Arctic order — one built on consensus and mutual trust, that is now rapidly eroding.
  • With the rise of military and political contestation, scientific diplomacy alone may no longer be adequate for protecting India’s interests.

Diplomatic Challenges and Recalibration Needs

  • Nordic countries are increasingly uneasy about India’s close ties with Russia, particularly in the wake of the Ukraine conflict.
  • India has yet to clearly communicate how its stance of strategic autonomy can align with Arctic partners’ expectations and serve mutual interests.
  • A more balanced and proactive Arctic engagement is essential if India wishes to play a credible and constructive role in the evolving polar order.

A Constructive Role for India: Strategic Imperatives

  • India’s interests in the Arctic are tangible, not theoretical — the rise of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could redirect global trade away from Indian Ocean sea lanes, threatening India’s strategic and economic relevance.
  • If Russia and China consolidate control over Arctic routes, India’s vision of becoming a connectivity hub in the Indo-Pacific—via SAGAR and IPOI—may be undermined.

Blurring Boundaries: Arctic-Indo-Pacific Linkages

  • The strategic divide between the Arctic and the Indo-Pacific is narrowing.
  • Russia-China cooperation in the Arctic, combined with China’s naval expansion in the Indian Ocean, is forcing India to rethink its focus on the southern maritime domain.

A More Purposeful Arctic Engagement: Strategic Recommendations

Recalibration Needed: India must evolve its Arctic approach to retain its climate-conscious ethos while adopting a sharper strategic focus in light of shifting geopolitical dynamics.

Three-Part Strategy for Enhanced Engagement

Institutionalise Arctic Engagement

  • Establish dedicated Arctic desks in the Foreign and Defence Ministries.
  • Facilitate regular inter-agency coordination on Arctic affairs.
  • Engage strategic think tanks for policy research and scenario planning.

Collaborate on Dual-Use Initiatives

  • Partner with like-minded Arctic states on areas like Polar logistics, Maritime domain awareness, Satellite monitoring.
  • These initiatives enhance strategic presence without triggering alarm.

Claim a Voice in Emerging Governance Forums

  • Proactively seek participation in new platforms dealing with Infrastructure development, Shipping regulations, Digital standards, Blue economy frameworks.
  • Approach Arctic politics with cultural sensitivity and community engagement, avoiding an extractive or aggressive posture.

Reality Check and Future Outlook

  • India’s current Arctic approach, grounded in scientific diplomacy, has merit but is increasingly outdated.
  • Relying on climate cooperation alone is insufficient as power dynamics begin to shape the Arctic order.
  • Failure to adapt could leave India marginalised in one of the most strategically vital frontiers of the 21st century.

Source:https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/india-must-rethink-its-arctic-outlook/article69538328.ece

Mains question

Discuss the strategic significance of the Arctic region in contemporary geopolitics and evaluate India’s Arctic Policy in the context of emerging security and governance challenges. (250 words)