HOW CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTS INDIA’S WHEAT PRODUCTION

Why in the News?

  • India recorded its warmest February in 124 years this year.
  • IMD warning for March: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has raised an alarm, predicting above-normal temperatures and an increased number of heatwave days in March.
  • Early flowering and faster ripening: High temperatures lead to premature flowering and accelerated ripening, impacting the quality and quantity of wheat crop yield.
  • Wheat harvest season at risk: The extreme heat coincides with the start of India’s wheat harvest season, posing a serious threat to the country’s second-most consumed crop after rice.

HOW CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTS INDIA’S WHEAT PRODUCTION

Wheat in India

Growing Regions and Season:

  • Wheat is primarily grown in the northwestern Indo-Gangetic plains.
  • Major wheat-producing states: Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh.
  • Growing season: Sown between October and December and harvested between February and April during the rabi crop season.

Production and Procurement:

  • For the 2025-2026 rabi marketing season, the Indian government set a wheat procurement target of 30 million tonnes, according to a PTI report in January.
  • The target is lower despite the agriculture ministry aiming for a record wheat production of 115 million tonnes in the 2024-2025 crop year (July–June).
  • In 2024-2025, government wheat procurement stood at 6 million tonnes, surpassing the 26.2 million tonnes procured in 2023-2024, but falling short of the 34.15 million tonne target for the year.

Export Ban:

  • In May 2022, India prohibited wheat exports.
  • The ban followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a major wheat producer, which disrupted global wheat availability and triggered a global price hike.

Heat and Wheat

Impact of Heat on Wheat:

  • Climate variability: Although not new, it becomes concerning when the crop growth season coincides with heatwave conditions, according to Sandeep Mahato of the S. Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF), Chennai.
  • A 2022 study in the International Journal of Molecular Sciences highlighted that global warming is causing heat stress, which significantly alters the biological and developmental processes of wheat, reducing grain production and quality.

Effects of Heat Stress on Wheat:

  • Disrupts physio-bio-chemical processes, including:
  • Photosynthesis and respiration.
  • Oxidative damage and activity of stress-induced hormones, proteins, and antioxidative enzymes.
  • Water and nutrient relations.
  • Affects yield-forming attributes such as: Biomass production, Tiller count, Grain number and size.
  • These changes occur when wheat is exposed to temperatures above the optimum range, reducing overall yield.

Stages of Wheat Growth (According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation)

  • Germination to Emergence:
  • Involves the growth of the seed until the seedling breaks through the soil surface.
  • The first leaf emerges during this stage.
  • Growth Stage 1:
  • Covers the period from emergence to double ridge.
  • Shoots appear, and the plant’s growth shifts from producing primordial leaves to developing flowering structures called spikelets.
  • Growth Stage 2:
  • Lasts from double ridge to anthesis.
  • The plant transitions from the vegetative to the reproductive stage.
  • This stage makes the plant more susceptible to heat stress.
  • Growth Stage 3:
  • Includes the grain-filling period, from anthesis to maturity.
  • The grains develop and mature during this phase.

Impact of Indian Ocean Warming on Wheat and Agriculture

Oceans and Climate Impact:

  • Indian Ocean warming: The Indian Ocean is warming at an accelerated rate.
  • A 2024 study by scientists at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, predicts that the Indian Ocean will be in a “near-permanent heat wave state” by the end of the century due to global warming.
  • The frequency of marine heat waves is expected to increase tenfold, from the current 20 days per year to 220–250 days per year.

Impact on India’s Monsoon and Crop Cycle:

  • A warming Indian Ocean will alter India’s monsoon patterns, which most of the country’s agriculture depends on.
  • The kharif (summer) crop season is starting and ending late, delaying the beginning of the rabi season.
  • Since wheat is a rabi crop, late sowing will cause the later stages of wheat growth to coincide with early heat waves.
  • February 2025 was warmer than usual, with similar trends predicted for March, which is the peak wheat harvest season.
  • The ideal temperature during the later growth stages of wheat should not exceed 30ºC.

Heat Stress on Wheat:

  • Early flowering and faster ripening: High temperatures shorten the grain-filling period, resulting in lighter grains with lower starch accumulation, reducing overall wheat output.

Grain quality issues:

  • Extreme heat increases protein content but reduces starch, making the grains harder and affecting milling quality.
  • Farmers may face lower market prices due to reduced grain weight and quality issues.

Resource overuse:

  • Lower crop yields may lead farmers to overuse fertilisers, fungicides, and other inputs, as stated by Nikhil Goveas, lead climate advisor at the Environmental Defense Fund.
  • This results in higher but inefficient use of resources, creating a cascading effect of heat-stress challenges on crops.

Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies for Wheat Crop Heat Stress

Food Security as the Central Focus:

  • Food security is central to adaptation and mitigation strategies aimed at lowering heat stress on wheat crops.
  • According to Nikhil Goveas, wheat is vital for farmers as it can be consumed immediately, with part of the produce saved for household consumption.

Challenges with Wheat Varieties:

  • Farmers often rely on older wheat varieties due to accessibility issues caused by supply chain problems, costs, etc.
  • While climate-resilient wheat varieties are important, they are not a silver bullet solution to the broader climate challenge.
  • Goveas emphasized the need for a holistic approach, considering all crops and addressing:
    • Accurate crop timing.
    • Updated weather and information systems.
    • Mitigation efforts across the agricultural sector.

Policy and Management Solutions:

  • Immediate policy support: Compensation for farmers affected by heat stress.

Long-term strategies:

  • Early sowing of wheat in areas prone to early heat waves.
  • Introducing improved yield varieties with shorter growth durations to reduce vulnerability.
  • Efficient management of resources like fertilisers and pest control to bridge yield gaps.
  • According to Sandeep Mahato of MSSRF Chennai, improving production should be the central goal of adaptation strategies.

Multi-pronged Approach:

Prakash Jha of Mississippi State University stressed the need for a multi-pronged strategy combining:

  • Scientific research.
  • Financial support and crop insurance.
  • Technological solutions such as weather monitoring and advisories.
  • Farmer education on heat-resistant wheat varieties and best practices.
  • Promoting heat-resistant wheat varieties and adjusting sowing dates are key measures to reduce heat stress impact.

Source:https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/agriculture/climate-change-impact-on-wheat-production-in-india/article69306516.ece 

Mains Question:

Discuss the impact of rising temperatures and Indian Ocean warming on wheat production in India. Suggest adaptation and mitigation strategies to ensure food security and sustainable agricultural practices. (250 words)