• UGI USER
  • May 28, 2024
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IMD PREDICTS ‘ABOVE NORMAL’ MONSOON; LA NIÑA, POSITIVE IOD EXPECTED

Why in the news?

India’s monsoon forecast by the IMD hinges on the transition from El Niño conditions to ‘neutral’ conditions, followed by the onset of La Niña conditions later in the season.

source:slideshare

About El Niño and La Niña Conditions:

  • El Niño refers to warmer-than-average temperatures in the Central Pacific, while La Niña signifies cooler-than-average temperatures in the same region.
  • El Niño and La Niña are Pacific Ocean climate patterns affecting global weather.
  • They result from shifting ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
  • Normal Pacific conditions involve westward trade winds and upwelling cold water.
  • El Niño disrupts this, bringing warmer temperatures, while La Niña intensifies normal conditions.
  • Collectively, they form the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
About Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD):

  • Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) characterized by sea surface temperature variance between Arabian Sea (west) and eastern Indian Ocean (east).
  • Influences the climate of Australia and surrounding nations, impacting regional rainfall patterns.
  • It depends on temperature discrepancies between the eastern (Bay of Bengal) and western (Arabian Sea) Indian Ocean.
  • IOD influences the Indian monsoon alongside El Niño and La Niña.

Characteristics include:

  • Temperature difference leading to pressure variance and wind flow between the eastern and western Indian Ocean.
  • Development from April to May, peaking in October.

Three phases: Neutral, Positive, and Negative IOD:

  • Neutral phase: Pacific water flows between Indonesia, maintaining warmth northwest of Australia.
  • Positive phase: Weakening westerly winds along the equator allow warm water movement to Africa, benefiting the monsoon.
  • Negative phase: Intensified westerly winds concentrate warmer waters near Australia, hindering monsoon progression over India.

Associated Article:

https://universalinstitutions.com/indian-climate/