• UGI USER
  • Mar 29, 2024
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YOUNG AND THE OLD

Relevance: GS 2 – Issues relating to development and management of Social Sector/Services relating to Health, Education, Human Resources.

Why in the News?

  • A recent Lancet study highlighted concerns over India’s declining total fertility rate (TFR).
  • India’s TFR has decreased significantly over the last century:
    • 1950: 6.18 children per woman
    • 2021: 1.91 children per woman
    • Projected for 2050: 1.29 children per woman
  • India has already dropped below the replacement level of fertility, which is 2.1 children per woman, necessary for a population to replace one generation with another.

Lancet’s Projection on India’s Ageing Population

  • According to a Lancet report, India is expected to become an ageing society within the next 30 years.
  • The projected Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for India in 2050 is 1.29 children per woman.
  • By 2050, one in five individuals in India will be aged 60 or above.

Lancet’s Warning on India’s Demographic Dividend

  • The Lancet report indicates that India’s demographic dividend is not indefinite.
  • Global experiences, like China’s, offer lessons for Indian policymakers on managing demographic transitions.
  • China’s Experience and Economic Growth
    • In China, the working-age population crossed 50% in 1987 and reached its peak around the mid-2000s.
    • This period coincided with China’s remarkable economic growth.
    • However, by last year, China’s TFR had plummeted to a record low.
    • China’s working-age population shrank by over 40 million, despite the government’s efforts to boost population growth.
  • Challenges Faced by Developed Nations
    • Historical data from developed nations over the last 60 years shows that once fertility rates drop below the replacement level, reversing the decline becomes extremely challenging.

India’s Current Situation

  • India’s current TFR stands at 1.9, slightly below the replacement rate.
  • According to UNPF estimates, India’s working-age population will peak in the late 2030s to early 2040s.
    • The UN Population Fund’s (UNPF) India Ageing Report from last year indicates a significant increase in the elderly population.
    • The number of elderly people in India is expected to more than double from 149 million in 2022 to 347 million by the middle of the century.

Implications for the economy

  • Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of the Population Foundation of India, highlights potential challenges stemming from declining fertility rates, including an ageing population, labor force shortages, and gender imbalances.
    • While these challenges may not fully manifest for several decades, proactive measures are necessary to address them effectively.
  • The report predicts a further decline in India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to 04 children per woman by 2100.
    • In countries like India, having more children is economically impractical for many families.
  • Scandinavian countries such as Sweden and Denmark tackle similar issues by providing support for families, including affordable childcare, healthcare investments, and male engagement initiatives on a large scale.

Decline in line with global trends

  • The decline in India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) aligns with global trends, as indicated by the study.
    • Factors contributing to the global decline in fertility rates include improved female education and increased use of modern contraception methods.
  • The study predicts that by 2050, 155 out of 204 countries will have fertility rates below the replacement level.
    • This trend is expected to intensify, with 198 countries projected to have below replacement level fertility by 2100.
  • The report anticipates that by 2100, over 95% of the world’s countries and territories will have fertility rates below replacement level, although disparities in rates will persist.

Recommendations for Policymakers

  • Policymakers should capitalize on this demographic window to maximize India’s demographic dividend, similar to China’s approach from the late 1980s to the early 2000s.
    • The challenges associated with a rapidly growing ageing population might still be decades away. India, being a young nation, should proactively prepare for these impending demographic shifts.
  • Immediate actions are needed to address skill deficits and enhance the knowledge economy.
  • There is a need to create employment opportunities outside of agriculture, focusing on avoiding the low-paid informal sector.
  • Addressing Social Security and Healthcare Needs
    • Policymakers need to establish sufficient social security and healthcare provisions to support the expanding elderly population.
    • There is a need to create opportunities that effectively utilize the skills of the elderly population.
  • Regional Variations in TFR Across India: Signs indicate that regions in south India and west India are ageing at a faster rate compared to the northern parts of the country.
  • Economic policies aimed at stimulating growth and job creation are crucial to address and mitigate the impacts of declining fertility rates, according to Muttreja.
    • Social security and pension reforms are essential components of the solution to combat falling fertility rates.
  • Increased male engagement in household activities is beneficial.
    • For women to balance careers with motherhood, men must take on greater responsibility for household and caregiving tasks.

Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/editorials/express-view-on-indias-falling-fertility-rate-a-wake-up-call-9238994/

Mains question

Discuss the implications of declining fertility rates in India in the context of global trends. Examine the economic and social policies needed to address and mitigate the impacts of this demographic shift. (250 words)