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  • Nov 01, 2023
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What a Normal Monsoon Hides

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  • GS Paper 1 Salient features of World’s Physical Geography.
  • Tags: #UPSC #GS2 #PhysicalGeography #ClimatePattern #Monsoon #MonsoonInIndia #MonsoonVariability

The Indian monsoon season is a critical and often unpredictable weather phenomenon, holding immense importance for agriculture, ecosystems, and livelihoods.

In recent years, it has appeared that monsoon rainfall in India has remained within the normal range. However, beneath this seemingly consistent pattern lies a complex web of variations, influenced by factors such as climate change, regional disparities, and evolving weather patterns.

The monsoon pattern in India

The monsoon pattern in India is a complex meteorological phenomenon that significantly influences the country’s climate, agriculture, and water resources.

  • It typically occurs in two phases: the Southwest Monsoon and the Northeast Monsoon.

Southwest Monsoon (June to September)

The Southwest Monsoon is the primary rainy season, bringing abundant moisture-laden winds from the Indian Ocean. It hits the Kerala coast in early June and gradually progresses northward. This season accounts for about 70% of India’s annual rainfall and is crucial for agriculture.

Northeast Monsoon (October to December)

The Northeast Monsoon affects the southeastern coast of India. It brings rains to states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Karnataka. Although it contributes less to the total rainfall, it is essential for these regions.

The monsoon pattern is highly variable, with some regions experiencing heavy downpours and others facing drought. Timely and well-distributed monsoon rains are vital for India’s agriculture and overall economic stability.

The Myth of Monsoon Normalcy

Consistent Variability

Contrary to the perception of stable monsoons, there is significant variability in rainfall patterns at both regional and daily levels. Some areas receive heavy rainfall, while others face prolonged dry spells.

District-Level Analysis

A recent study by Climate Trends reveals that districts receiving normal daily rainfall are exceedingly rare. Out of approximately 85,000 district-rain days, only 6% qualify as “normal.”

Extreme Rainfall Events

The frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events, compensating for dry periods. These erratic patterns challenge the notion of stable monsoons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Disparities

Wide Regional Variations

Regional disparities are evident in monsoon rainfall. While parts of the northwest and central India receive abundant rainfall (over 100% of normal), eastern and northeastern regions experience significant deficits (barely 80%).

East and North-East India

The eastern and northeastern regions have faced below-normal rainfall for the past decade. In some years, the deficiency has exceeded 10%. States like Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal have recorded over 20% deficits.

Kerala’s Declining Rainfall

Kerala, known for its high rainfall, witnessed a 34% rainfall deficit this year. This decline in monsoon rainfall is an alarming trend, primarily unexplained.

Factors Behind Monsoon Variability

Climate Change

While climate change plays a significant role in altering monsoon patterns, other factors also contribute to the variability.

El Niño, for instance, can affect rainfall, but its impact can be offset by other weather events.

El-Nino

  • El Nino is a climatic phenomenon characterized by the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • It occurs irregularly and has significant global impacts.
  • El Nino can disrupt normal weather patterns, leading to severe weather events, such as floods, droughts, and storms, in various regions worldwide.
  • Its counterpart, La Nina, involves cooler sea surface temperatures and has contrasting effects, influencing climate and weather conditions on a global scale.

2019 Monsoon Example

The 2019 monsoon season was influenced by El Niño, a climate phenomenon known for causing rainfall deficits. However, extended cyclones and heavy rain events in different months counteracted El Niño’s suppressing effects.

Unpredictability and Climate Change

Climate change introduces greater uncertainty into weather patterns. Even with measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the unpredictability of monsoons is likely to persist.

Preparing for an Unpredictable Future

Coping with Uncertainty

As monsoon variability increases, preparedness becomes crucial. Emphasis on disaster preparedness, the mitigation of infrastructure-related bottlenecks, and climate resilience in development projects are vital components of tackling unpredictable weather events.

Understanding Regional Impact

Recognizing the disparate effects of monsoon variability in different regions of India is essential. Tailored strategies for drought-prone areas, flood mitigation in urban centres, and climate-resilient infrastructure can help manage the regional impact of variable monsoons.

Impact of Monsoon Variability in India 

Monsoon variability in India has profound regional impacts that affect the country’s diverse landscapes and populations. These impacts are characterized by variations in rainfall patterns, both spatially and temporally.

Here’s an overview of the regional impacts of monsoon variability in India:

  1. North and Northwest India: Some regions in North and Northwest India, such as Punjab and Haryana, rely heavily on monsoon rains for agriculture. Variability can lead to droughts or excess rainfall, affecting crop yields.
  2. Northeast India: The northeastern states receive heavy rainfall during the monsoon season. Excessive rainfall can lead to flooding, landslides, and infrastructure damage.
  3. Western Ghats: The Western Ghats, particularly the southwestern coast, receives significant rainfall. Monsoon variations impact water resources, hydropower generation, and agricultural activities in this region.
  4. Southern Peninsula: Variability can lead to water scarcity, affecting agriculture and drinking water supplies.
  5. Gangetic Plains: The Gangetic plains are crucial for India’s agriculture. Monsoon variability influences crop planting, growth, and yields, affecting food production.
  6. Western India: This region experiences arid conditions, and any shortfall in monsoon rains can lead to water scarcity and impact industries like agriculture and textiles.
  7. Eastern India: The states in the eastern part of the country can experience excessive rainfall, which, if not well managed, can lead to flooding, crop damage, and diseases.
  8. Himalayan Region: Variability in monsoon patterns affects glacial meltwater and river flow, which is vital for the region’s water resources.

Overall, the regional impacts of monsoon variability in India highlight the critical role of this seasonal phenomenon in the country’s agriculture, water resources, and overall socio-economic well-being.

India’s monsoon remains a critical yet unpredictable natural phenomenon, with significant regional disparities in rainfall patterns. While climate change plays a role in this variability, other factors contribute to the complex monsoon dynamics. Adapting to these changes through better preparedness,   is the key to managing the impact of the “normal” monsoon’s hidden variations.

Source: Livemint

Mains Question

The Indian monsoon season, despite appearing normal at first glance, conceals a web of regional disparities and daily variations. Analyze the complexities of the monsoon pattern and its regional consequences.