• UGI USER
  • May 20, 2023
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Warming warning: On the World Meteorological Organization projections for temperature trends

Introduction

  • The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued its annual update on its projections that the annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is likely to be 1.1°-1.8°C higher than the average from 1850-1900.

Major Highlights of the Report

  • Increase in Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions: Global GHGs emissions continued to increase in 2022. Carbon dioxide is at 149% of pre-industrial levels, Methane is at 262% of pre-industrial levels, Nitrous oxide is at 124% of pre-industrial levels.
  • High Global Mean Temperature: In 2022, the planet was 1.15 ± 0.13 °C warmer than the pre-industrial (1850-1900) average, making the last 8 years the warmest on record. Despite cooling La Niña conditions , 2022 was the 5th or 6th warmest year.
  • Above Normal Precipitation: In 2022, large areas with above normal precipitation included large parts of Asia and the south-west Pacific, areas of northern South America and the Caribbean, the eastern Sahel region, parts of southern Africa, Sudan, and eastern Europe.
  • Ocean Heat Content: As GHGs accumulate in the atmosphere, temperatures warm on land and in the ocean. It is expected that the ocean will continue to warm well into the future – a change which is irreversible on centennial to millennial time scales.
  • Rise in Sea Level: In 2022, global mean sea level continued to rise. The sea has risen approximately 3.4 ± 0.3 mm per year over the past 30 years .
  • Ocean Acidification: Global mean ocean pH has been steadily declining at rates not seen for at least the past 26,000 years.
  • Sea Ice Extent: Arctic sea-ice extent was below the long-term average for most of the year. Antarctic sea-ice extent dropped to the lowest level and almost 1 million km 2 below the long-term (1991-2020) mean.
  • Glacier Mass Balance: The glaciers have been losing mass nearly every year.
  • Exceptional Melt in Swiss Alps: In Switzerland 6% of the glacier ice volume was lost between 2021 and 2022.
  • Extreme Events: Rising global temperatures have contributed to more frequent and severe extreme weather events around the world, including cold and heat waves, floods, droughts, wildfires and storms.

Suggestions as per the Report

Adaptation:

  • Early Warning Systems allow people to know hazardous weather is on its way, and informs how governments, communities and individuals can act to minimize the impending impacts.
  • However, even if adaptation is improved, the climate will continue to change unless the underlying drivers are addressed.
  • Without immediate and deep greenhouse gases emissions reductions across all sectors and regions, it will be impossible to keep warming below 1.5° C.

Mitigation:

  • It is urgent to mitigate, or reduce, greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels wherever possible.
  • Transitioning to renewable energy sources is a critically important part of reducing emissions.

Conclusion

  • The WMO update does not have specific inputs for India. However, the overall trend in indicators suggests that India, dependent as it is on rain-fed agriculture and with its long coastline, will be severely tested due to changes in the global climate. India’s abilities at forecasting cyclones and weather anomalies have improved but developing resilience is far more challenging. Greater investments in bolstering disaster-related infrastructure are the need of the hour.