THREE NEIGHBOURHOOD QUESTIONS

Relevance

  • GS 2 – International Relations
  • GS 3 – Internal Security

Focus

  • This article explores the consequences of the recent geopolitical changes in Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and the Maldives for India’s foreign policy and security at home.
  • It investigates the reasons behind India’s surprise at these developments and looks critically at how its neighbourhood diplomacy has to be managed more pro-actively and comprehensively.

THREE NEIGHBOURHOOD QUESTIONS - UPSC

Context

India’s strategic interests have suffered serious blows in three important bordering countries that is Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and the Maldives in less than three years. These swift alterations, characterized by changes in the administration and diplomatic difficulties, have revealed weaknesses in India’s foreign policy approach and sparked doubts about its capacity to affect results in its near region.

Key Issues

Historical Context and Strategic Revisions

  • New Ideas in External Intelligence Agencies: In 1968, India established an external intelligence service to understand and influence its neighbours. The recent defeats suggest that these agencies’ mandates and capacities should be revisited and maybe expanded in order to properly meet contemporary concerns. Raghavan, a veteran diplomat, has advocated for a more dynamic and responsive external intelligence service capable of anticipating and countering such developments.
  • Diplomatic and Intelligence Cooperation: It is critical for managing India’s neighbourhood strategy. India’s diplomatic strategy has frequently depended on traditional influence, but recent developments show the importance of more adaptable and forward-thinking tactics.

Regime Changes and Strategic Setbacks

  • Afghanistan:
    • India suffered a huge strategic setback on August 15, 2021, when President Ashraf Ghani abruptly left Afghanistan, giving the Taliban complete control over the country despite India’s heavy investment in Afghanistan’s security and development.
    • India has made about $3 billion in investments in Afghanistan, including significant undertakings like the building of the Salma Dam and the Afghan Parliament.
    • India’s connectivity endeavours, including the Chabahar Port project, which is essential for access to Central Asia, are also in jeopardy due to the country’s declining influence in Afghanistan. 
  • Maldives:
    • Mohamed Muizzu was elected President in the November 2023 presidential election. His win is perceived as a diplomatic test for India, given the anti-Indian views of his predecessor Ibrahim Solih and his pro-China position.
    • The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) initiatives of China have acquired significant traction in the Maldives, potentially affecting India’s strategic interests in the Indian Ocean region.
  • Bangladesh:
    • India’s interests suffered another setback when Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina abruptly resigned on August 5, 2024, amid political turmoil, considering her contribution to fortifying India-Bangladesh ties.
    • The trade relationship between India and Bangladesh reached a value of around $10 billion in 2023 during her leadership.
    • Her departure raises questions about the future of current partnerships, such as the Bangladesh-India Friendship Power Company Limited (BIFPCL).

Intelligence and Strategic Gaps

  • The rapid advances in these countries have called into doubt the effectiveness of India’s intelligence apparatus, as well as its ability to forecast and influence regional dynamics.
  • The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and intelligence services, especially the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), face criticism for failing to anticipate these changes. Former RAW Chief A.S. Dulat had previously underlined the importance of increased ground-level intelligence gathering, particularly in India’s neighbourhood.
  • The failure to provide timely and reliable intelligence has had serious consequences, jeopardizing India’s investments and diplomatic efforts in these countries.

Institutional Challenges

  • The paper draws attention to the fundamental flaws in India’s foreign policy framework, most notably the absence of a coherent plan that combines military, diplomatic, and intelligence operations.
  • The National Security Council and its advisory organizations, particularly the Strategic Policy Group, must take a more active role in developing and implementing India’s neighbouring policy.
  • Scholars have argued that India’s policy must change to reflect new geopolitical realities, such as China’s growing power in South Asia.

Global and Regional Implications

  • India and Regional Dominance Question:
    • The events in Afghanistan, the Maldives, and Bangladesh have an impact on India’s regional dominance as well as its relations with global powers such as China and the United States.
    • India’s ability to properly manage its neighbours is critical to sustaining strategic autonomy and projecting strength on a global scale.
  • Ashley Tellis, a senior scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes that India’s neighbourhood policy is critical to its overall geopolitical strategy, particularly in the Indo-Pacific area.
Case Studies

Afghanistan:

  • The Taliban’s return to power has imperilled India’s development assistance in Afghanistan, which includes infrastructural projects such as the Delaram-Zaranj Highway and capacity-building programs.
  • The loss of influence in Afghanistan has an impact on India’s strategic objectives in Central Asia, as well as connectivity initiatives such as the Chabahar Port.
  • India has invested more than $3 billion in different development projects in Afghanistan, including the Afghan Parliament, road infrastructure, and educational facilities.

Maldives:

  • The Maldives’ foreign policy move under Mohamed Muizzu may result in a return of Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean region, posing a challenge to India’s maritime security and strategic interests.
  • China’s investments in the Maldives include projects like the China-Maldives Friendship Bridge, which have important geopolitical ramifications for India.
  • India is one of Maldives’ greatest development partners, with ongoing projects totalling more than $2 billion in areas including as housing, water and sanitation, and tourism.

Bangladesh:

  • The political uncertainty in Bangladesh jeopardizes the progress gained in bilateral ties under Sheikh Hasina, notably in areas such as border security, trade, and counter-terrorism cooperation.
  • The India-Bangladesh Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) of 2015 was a watershed moment that could be jeopardized if the political situation deteriorates.
  • Trade With Bangladesh: Bilateral commerce between India and Bangladesh was valued at around $10 billion in 2023, with India being one of Bangladesh’s top trading partners.

Way Forward

  • Strengthening Intelligence:
    • Improved cooperation between the MEA and India’s intelligence services is required to guarantee accurate and timely evaluations of regional events.
    • Prioritizing proactive intelligence collection and strategic foresight can help you predict and react to global shifts.
  • Diplomatic Engagement:
    • India needs to step up its diplomatic efforts in the region, concentrating on establishing more solid institutional relationships and encouraging interpersonal relationships.
    • Encouraging high-level visits, cultural exchanges, and economic collaborations will be essential to bolster diplomatic ties and sustain influence in these adjacent nations.
  • Strategic Autonomy:
    • It will be essential for India to preserve its strategic independence in the face of outside pressure, especially from China and the US, in order to protect its interests in the area.
    • In order to safeguard its strategic interests, India needs to exercise caution when navigating its interactions with key international powers.
  • Regional Cooperation: 
    • To advance stability and economic integration in South Asia, India should take the initiative in reviving regional alliances like SAARC and BIMSTEC.
    • Regional forums offer a venue for discussing common issues and encouraging collaboration. India’s leadership in these alliances has the potential to ease tensions and advance stability in the region.

Conclusion

India’s diplomatic and intelligence activities have major shortcomings, which have been made apparent by the geopolitical upheavals in Bangladesh, Maldives, Afghanistan. The aforementioned events highlight the necessity for India to enhance its intelligence capabilities and implement a more flexible foreign policy strategy in order to foresee and adjust to changes in the area. India can enhance its ability to safeguard its interests and promote stability in the region by cultivating stronger diplomatic relations and upholding strategic independence. The current difficulties emphasize how crucial it is to recommit to constructive and ongoing regional participation.

Mains Question

Examine the latest geopolitical changes in Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Afghanistan, and talk about how they affect India’s foreign policy and security as a nation. What steps may India take to strengthen its strategic influence in the region?
(250 words)

Source: The Indian Express