• UGI USER
  • Aug 07, 2024
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THE RAWALPINDI FACTOR: INDIA-PAKISTAN DYNAMICS POST-2019

Syllabus:

GS 2:

  • India and its Neighbourhood- Relations.
  • Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries on India’s interests.

Why in the News?

The continuing debate over the Political status of Kashmir and India’s treatment to Pakistan has remained fresh due to the cross-border terrorism acts, revival of international interest, internal political situations in the Indian and Pakistan in the subcontinent.

 Source: ensani

Introduction and Context:

  • Kashmir Constitutional Change: India’s change in constitution in Kashmir in 2019 has impacted its approach towards Pakistan as there was no longer ambiguity regarding the status of Jammu and Kashmir and it has also lessened the international attempts to raise the matter.
  • Cross-Border Terrorism: Thus, the marginalisation of the Kashmir question in terms of the global politics is accompanied by the growing cross-border terrorism after Indian PM’s third term, which proves Pakistan’s ability to interfere.
  • Internal Challenges: Though there has been a political achievement of BJP by coming into power in Delhi, the separatist movement in Kashmir still continues and thus, it calls for constant monitoring and internal intervention to bring about a stable change in the concerned area.
  • Global Influence: Due to proper diplomacy and foreign relations, now India has counterbalanced Pakistan diplomacy especially from the United States, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia that hinder the Internationalization of Kashmir issue.
  • Economic Strength: India’s substantially higher gross domestic product than that of Pakistan has changed the overall economic asymmetry in the area and decreased the impact of Rawalpindi but has not eradicated the menace altogether.

Kashmir’s Political Landscape Post-2019

  • Reduced International Salience: The constitutional change has taken the heat off Kashmir, as compared to the past it has become less of an issue between India and Pakistan.
  • Domestic Gains: That is why the parliamentary elections indicated political wins of Delhi in Kashmir but the separatist sentiments never ceased to exist.
  • Pakistan’s Dual Strategy: In the past Pakistan has sponsored terrorism in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir and sought international attention , a strategy less effective post- 2019 but still present .
  • Strategic Partnerships: India has secured its position on the Kashmir issue through strategic partnership with the West as well as the Islamic nations that has weakened Pakistan’s counter attacks.
  • Economic Power Shift: The difference in economic power has stretched further in India’s favour, but issues in politics and the military continue in Pakistan.

Historical Context and Evolving Strategies

  • Cold War Legacy: ‘India in the post-Cold War era’ pointed out that still two pronged policy of ‘sponsored  insurgency’ and a ‘policy of seeking global intervention’ helped Pakistan complicate India’s Kashmir policy when cold war ended.
  • Simla Agreement: The 1972 agreement did not eliminate third-party roles in Kashmir, with the Pakistan Army often seizing opportunities to internationalize the issue.
  • Economic Reforms: India’s economic growth and improved US relations in the 2000s helped mitigate international pressures on its Kashmir policy.
  • Bilateral Efforts: Attempts at bilateral solutions, such as the Manmohan Singh-Pervez Musharraf framework, failed due to changes in Pakistan’s leadership and renewed terrorism.
  • NDA’s Strategy: The NDA government aimed to change engagement terms with Pakistan, focusing on military deterrence, ending militant engagement, and constitutional changes in Kashmir.

Challenges and Opportunities Post-2019

  • Diplomatic Standoff: Pakistan’s refusal to engage with India until the reversal of constitutional changes in Kashmir has created a diplomatic impasse.
  • Leadership Dynamics: While some Pakistani leaders like Nawaz Sharif and Qamar Bajwa showed interest in engagement, opposition from figures like Imran Khan complicates formal talks.
  • International Attention: Renewed political trouble in Kashmir could draw international scrutiny, necessitating India’s proactive internal reconciliation efforts.
  • Counterterrorism Efforts: Ongoing cross-border terrorism requires robust countermeasures and engagement with diverse elements of Pakistan’s polity.
  • National Security Priorities: Accelerating internal reconciliation in Kashmir and addressing cross-border terrorism remain crucial for India’s national security strategy.

Strategic Imperatives for India

  • Engagement with Rawalpindi: Despite the relative ease post-2019, India cannot ignore the Pakistan Army’s potential to disrupt regional stability.
  • Proactive Reconciliation: Internal reconciliation efforts in Kashmir are essential to mitigate separatist sentiments and prevent internationalization of the issue.
  • Economic Leverage: Leveraging India’s economic strength and strategic alliances can help counter Pakistan’s diplomatic and military strategies.
  • Sustained Vigilance: Continuous monitoring and counterterrorism efforts are necessary to address the persistent threat of cross-border terrorism.
  • Holistic Approach: Combining internal stability, international diplomacy, and economic growth will strengthen India’s position in its complex relationship with Pakistan.

Way Forward

  1. Strengthen Internal Security: Enhance counterterrorism measures and intelligence capabilities to address cross-border terrorism and internal unrest in Kashmir.
  2. Political Reconciliation: Foster dialogue with local political leaders and separatist factions in Kashmir to build trust and address grievances.
  3. Economic Development: Invest in Kashmir’s economic development to improve living standards, create jobs, and reduce separatist sentiments.
  4. Diplomatic Engagement: Maintain and strengthen strategic alliances with key global powers to counter Pakistan’s diplomatic offensives.
  5. Military Preparedness: Enhance military capabilities along the border to deter and respond to potential threats from Pakistan.
  6. Public Diplomacy: Promote India’s stance on Kashmir internationally to counter misinformation and build global support.
  7. Bilateral Talks: Explore opportunities for pragmatic engagement with Pakistan‘s civilian leadership to reduce tensions and foster cooperation.

Conclusion

While India has managed to reduce the international salience of the Kashmir issue, ongoing vigilance and proactive measures are essential to address cross-border terrorism and foster internal reconciliation, ensuring long-term stability in the region.

Mains Practice Question

Discuss the impact of India’s constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir on its relationship with Pakistan. How has it affected bilateral and international dynamics, and what steps should India take to ensure long-term stability and peace in the region?

Source :Indian Express

Associated Article:

https://universalinstitutions.com/india-pakistan-relationship/