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The New START treaty on pause

Context: On February 23, on the eve of the first anniversary of his country’s “special military operation” in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow was unilaterally suspending the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty with the U.S., stating that the West was trying to destroy Russia.

What is the New START nuclear treaty?

• In 1985 leaders of the U.S. and the former Soviet Union, Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, declared in a historic statement. It stated “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”
• Both Moscow and Washington were aggressive in their one-upmanship of expanding nuclear arsenals in the initial decades of the Cold War; they have engaged in bilateral talks and signed multiple treaties to shrink and keep checks on each other’s nuclear arsenals.
• The first formal dialogue, the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT), started between the two countries under the former U.S. President Richard Nixon in 1969.
• The Anti-Ballistic Missile defence systems Treaty, which provided for the shooting down of incoming missiles, was signed in 1972, but the George W. Bush administration unilaterally pulled out of the pact in 2002.
• The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I), signed in 1991, expired in late 2009 and another treaty, the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT or Moscow Treaty),was signed in 2002.

• The New START treaty replaced the 2002 pactand was the last remaining nuclear weapons control agreement between the two powers who together hold 90% of the world’s nuclear arsenal.
• The New START treaty was signed in 2010 by former U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and came into force in February 2011.
• It was extended for five years when current U.S. President Joe Biden took office in 2021.
• Under the Treaty, America and Russia cannot deploy more than 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads and more than 700 long-range missiles and bombers.
• It also limits each country to 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers and delivery vehicles.
• Additionally, it allows each side to carry out up to 18 short-notice (32 hours) on-site inspections of strategic nuclear weapons sites annuallyto ensure that the other country had not crossed the limits of the treaty.
• Under the agreement, Russia and the U.S. exchange data twice a year on ballistic missiles under the treaty’s purview and on bombers, test sites, nuclear bases etc.
• The treaty also mandates the two parties to send notifications within five days if they change or update something in their stockpile, like moving missiles to a new base or deploying a new warhead to the system.
• Inspections under the treaty have stalled in the past three years. They were first put on hold in March 2020 owing to the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Moscow and Washington were due to discuss the restarting of inspections in November 2022, but this was postponed by Mr. Putin. There has been no development in this regard since.

Why did the Russian President suspend New START?

• Recently President Putin stated that North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the U.S. wanted to ‘inflict ‘strategic defeat’ on Russia and “try to get to our nuclear facilities at the same time.”
• Putin argued that while the U.S. had pushed for the resumption of inspections of Russian nuclear facilities under the treaty, NATO allies were helping Ukraine mount drone attacks on Russian air bases hosting nuclear-capable strategic bombers.

Will it trigger an arms race?

• Since Mr. Putin has not withdrawn from the treaty and just ‘suspended’ it, which is a term not defined in the official pact,analysts are saying the move would not immediately trigger an arms race between the two powers, and could be a part of Russia’s political messaging amid the West’s massive assistance to Ukraine amid the year-long conflict.
• Also, the Russian administration also announced that it does not plan to breach the limits on warheads prescribed in New START.
• The Russian Foreign Ministry said that it would continue notifying Washington of planned test launches of inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).