THE IMPACT OF SHEIKH HASINA’S EXIT ON INDIA-BANGLADESH RELATIONS

Syllabus:

  • GS-2– Bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh , Security issues in Border, Stability in South Asia

Focus :

  • This article examines the potential consequences of Sheikh Hasina’s exit from power in Bangladesh on India-Bangladesh relations. It explores the transformation in bilateral ties under her leadership, the areas of cooperation between the two nations, and the complexities of engaging with a new regime in Dhaka. The article also considers how shifts in Bangladesh’s domestic politics might influence its relations with India and other global powers.
THE IMPACT OF SHEIKH HASINA’S EXIT ON INDIA-BANGLADESH RELATIONS - UPSCSource-TH

Introduction

The Recent Political Upheaval –

  • Sheikh Hasina, the former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, fled to India following protests and political unrest.
  • Her departure has raised concerns about the future of India-Bangladesh relations, given the close ties forged during her tenure.

India’s Dilemma:

  • The Narendra Modi government provided shelter to Ms. Hasina while simultaneously engaging with the new regime in Dhaka.
  • India is now assessing the potential impact of this political transition on its strategic and economic interests in Bangladesh.

Sheikh Hasina’s Tenure

A New Era of Cooperation:

  • Since Sheikh Hasina’s return to power in 2009, she prioritized strengthening ties with India, focusing on multiple areas including security, trade, and connectivity.
  • Her government cracked down on terror camps, religious radicalization, and extradited over 20 individuals wanted by India for terrorism and criminal activities.

Resolution of Border Disputes:

  • The Hasina government worked towards resolving border tensions, notably following the 2001 BDR-BSF clashes.
  • The signing of the historic 2015 Land Boundary Agreement marked a significant milestone in India-Bangladesh relations.

Economic and Strategic Cooperation:

  • India extended trade concessions and low-interest Lines of Credit to Bangladesh, helping the country achieve significant economic growth.
  • Connectivity projects, including rail, road, and river links, were enhanced, and new defense cooperation agreements were established in 2024.

Political Support and Regional Alliances:

  • Despite growing authoritarianism in Bangladesh under Ms. Hasina, India maintained its support, valuing her alignment with India on regional issues like boycotting SAARC over terrorism concerns.
  • Bangladesh’s role in India’s regional connectivity plans to Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific became increasingly important.

Challenges Ahead:

  • The potential review of agreements, such as the recent power deal with the Adani group, poses challenges for India’s strategic interests in the region.

A Comparison with Begum Khaleda Zia’s Tenure-Strained Relations During BNP Rule:

  • Begum Khaleda Zia’s tenure (2001-2006) as Prime Minister of Bangladesh was marked by strained relations with India.
  • During this period, Bangladesh became a safe haven for anti-India separatist groups, and ties with China and Pakistan deepened.

Security Concerns:

  • The rise of violent anti-India elements in Bangladesh under the BNP government created significant security challenges for India.
  • The period also saw increased border tensions and a lack of cooperation on issues of mutual
  • With the BNP possibly returning to power, there is concern that history might repeat itself, leading to a resurgence of anti-India activities and closer ties between Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan.

India’s Response to the New Regime

Engagement with the Government:

  • India has begun engaging with the new interim government in Bangladesh, led by Muhammad Yunus, signaling a pragmatic approach to maintaining bilateral ties.
  • The Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka attended the swearing-in ceremony, indicating India’s willingness to work with the new administration.

Complexities in Diplomatic Relations:

  • Hasina’s presence in India is viewed with suspicion by the new regime in Dhaka, complicating diplomatic relations.
  • The possibility of the new government demanding her extradition adds another layer of complexity to India’s foreign policy strategy.

Navigating Potential Political Changes:

  • India must carefully navigate the political changes in Bangladesh, especially if the BNP gains power in upcoming elections.
  • Ensuring the safety of Hindus and other minorities in Bangladesh, as highlighted by Mr. Modi’s appeal, will be a sensitive issue that could impact bilateral ties.

Impact on Bangladesh’s Relations with Other Countries

Changing Dynamics with the United States:

  • The U.S. has had a contentious relationship with the Hasina government, particularly after the implementation of a visa policy aimed at promoting democracy in Bangladesh.
  • With Ms. Hasina’s exit, U.S.-Bangladesh relations might improve, given the previous tensions between the Awami League government and Washington.

Evolving Ties with Pakistan:

  • During Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, Bangladesh’s relations with Pakistan were tense, primarily due to her stance on issues like war crimes tribunals.
  • A new government might seek to normalize ties with Pakistan, altering the geopolitical landscape in South Asia.

China’s Influence in Bangladesh:

  • China maintained close ties with Bangladesh under Ms. Hasina, with significant investments under the Belt and Road Initiative.
  • The new regime is likely to continue fostering strong relations with Beijing, which could influence Bangladesh’s foreign policy and its relations with India.

The Strategic Implications for India

Maintaining Strategic Interests:

  • India must work to preserve its strategic interests in Bangladesh, particularly in the areas of security, connectivity, and trade.
  • The potential review of key agreements, such as energy deals, could have significant implications for India’s economic ties with Bangladesh.

Balancing Regional Dynamics:

  • As Bangladesh’s political landscape evolves, India must balance its engagement with Dhaka while countering the influence of other regional powers like China and Pakistan.
  • Strengthening diplomatic ties with the new regime, while ensuring the safety of Indian citizens and minorities in Bangladesh, will be a critical challenge.

The Path Forward:

  • India’s approach to the new political reality in Bangladesh will require a delicate balance of pragmatism and strategic foresight.
  • Engaging with the new government while safeguarding the gains made during Ms. Hasina’s tenure will be essential for maintaining stability in the region.

The Uncertain Future of India-Bangladesh Relations:

  • Sheikh Hasina’s exit marks a significant shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape, with far-reaching implications for India.
  • The future of India-Bangladesh relations will depend on how effectively India navigates the complexities of engaging with a new regime.

Conclusion

Strategic Considerations for India:

  • As Bangladesh undergoes political change, India must remain vigilant in protecting its strategic interests, particularly in the areas of security and connectivity.
  • Maintaining a balanced approach to diplomacy, while addressing the concerns of minorities in Bangladesh, will be crucial for preserving regional stability.

Associated Article

https://universalinstitutions.com/indias-support-for-bangladesh-amid-political-crisis-and-transition/

Mains UPSC Question

GS 2

Discuss the potential impact of Sheikh Hasina’s exit from power in Bangladesh on India-Bangladesh relations. How might this political change affect bilateral cooperation in areas such as security, trade, and connectivity? What strategies should India adopt to navigate the evolving political landscape in Bangladesh? (250 words)