• UGI USER
  • Jul 26, 2024
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THE GEO-CALCULUS OF THE MOSCOW VISIT

Syllabus:

GS 2:

  • India and its Neighborhood- Relations.
  • Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and Agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Why in the News?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Russia, his first bilateral trip in his third term, drew significant international attention due to the timing amidst ongoing global tensions, particularly the conflict in Ukraine, and its implications for India’s foreign policy and strategic alliances.

Source: UGI

Context:

  • Prime Minister’s Visit: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Russia, marking his first bilateral trip in his third tenure, stirred significant reactions in the U.S. and Europe, with critical responses from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and several U.S. officials.
  • Global Reactions: The evident camaraderie between Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin drew disappointment from the U.S. State Department, National Security Adviser, and U.S. Ambassador to India, reflecting concerns over the visit’s implications.
  • India’s Stance: Despite global reactions, New Delhi emphasized its “freedom of choice,” assuring that India’s worldview remains unchanged, though the visit itself conveyed significant geopolitical messages.
  • Diplomatic Dynamics: The timing and context of the visit, amidst ongoing global tensions, highlight the nuanced diplomatic balancing act India is performing on the world stage.
  • Strategic Implications: The visit suggests potential shifts in India’s foreign policy approach, underscoring the importance of understanding both the explicit outcomes and the broader strategic context.
Evolution of Indo-Russia Relations

Historical Background:

  • Cold War Era Alliance: India and the Soviet Union maintained a robust strategic, military, economic, and diplomatic relationship during the Cold War.
  • Post-Soviet Continuity: Russia inherited and continued the strong ties with India after the Soviet Union’s dissolution, fostering a Special Strategic Relationship.

Political Relations:

  • Annual Commissions: Two inter-governmental commissions, IRIGC-TEC and IRIGC-MTC, meet annually to discuss trade, economic, scientific, technological, cultural, and military-technical cooperation.

Bilateral Trade:

  • Trade Figures: India’s bilateral trade with Russia was around USD 13 billion in 2021-22, up from USD 8.14 billion in 2020-21.
  • Trading Partner Rank: Russia has become India’s seventh-largest trading partner, rising from the 25th position in 2021, with the US, China, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Indonesia leading.

Defence and Security Relations:

  • Joint Military Exercises: India and Russia regularly conduct the Tri-Services exercise ‘INDRA’ and collaborate on various military programs like the BrahMos missile, 5th generation fighter jets, and the Sukhoi Su-30MKI.
  • Military Hardware: India has purchased or leased significant military hardware from Russia, including the S-400 Triumf, Kamov Ka-226 helicopters, T-90S Bhishma tanks, and the INS Vikramaditya aircraft carrier.

Science and Technology:

  • Historical Collaboration: The Soviet Union’s assistance was pivotal in establishing key Indian institutions like the Bhilai Steel Plant, IIT Bombay, and the early Indian space program.
  • Current Projects: India and Russia now collaborate on basic sciences, materials science, mathematics, and advanced fields like the Gaganyaan manned spaceflight program, nanotechnologies, and quantum computing.

Assessment of the Conflict in Ukraine

  • Timing of the Visit: The decision to visit Russia two years after the war in Ukraine began, and not earlier, is noteworthy, reflecting India’s evolving assessment of the conflict’s progression.
  • Initial Response: Initially, Modi refrained from attending the annual India-Russia summit in 2022 and 2023, focusing public messaging on his statement at the SCO summit in Uzbekistan, emphasizing that “this era is not of war.”
  • Conflict Evolution: The visit must be viewed in light of the changing nature of the Ukraine conflict, with Russia now appearing more capable of maintaining control over eastern Ukraine despite earlier military setbacks.
  • Frozen Conflict: With Western nations pushing for a peace process, New Delhi seems to have concluded that a frozen conflict is the most likely outcome, with significant implications for its foreign policy.
  • U.S. Political Dynamics: Anticipating changes in U.S. political leadership, with former President Donald Trump indicating a potential reduced commitment to Ukraine, Modi’s visit signals a pragmatic adjustment in India’s diplomatic strategy.
  • Joint Statement Nuances: The joint statement’s language, referring to the conflict “around Ukraine” and showing “appreciation” for peace proposals aligned with international law, subtly acknowledges Russian claims and reflects a strategic diplomatic balance.

Keeping Russia from China

  • Geopolitical Signaling: Modi’s visit to Moscow, following the cancellation of his visit to Astana for the SCO Summit, underscores his willingness to prioritize engagement with Putin over a joint appearance with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
  • China-Russia Dynamics: This contrasts with Western messaging that urges China to reduce its support for Russia, highlighting India’s strategic intent to maintain close ties with Russia amidst ongoing tensions with China at the Line of Actual Control.
  • Indo-Pacific Concerns: India’s partnerships with Western countries in the Indo-Pacific are balanced against its need to keep Russia on-side, reflecting a complex strategic calculus.
  • U.S. Actions: Recent U.S. initiatives, such as forming AUKUS and engaging “Quad Plus” countries, have given India reasons to reassess its own strategic positioning within these evolving alliances.
  • Quad’s Utility: The effectiveness of the Quad (India, Japan, Australia, U.S.) as a strategic concept remains in question, with India seeking to infuse new energy into this partnership amidst shifting global dynamics.
  • Strategic Autonomy: The Russia visit underscores India’s assertion of strategic autonomy, reminding global partners that India retains diverse diplomatic options and is not solely reliant on any single alliance.

Geo-Economic Thrust

  • Economic Context: Modi’s visit must be considered in its geo-economic context, beyond geopolitical implications, with a focus on sustaining and enhancing India-Russia trade relations amidst ongoing Western sanctions against Russia.
  • Trade Growth: India-Russia trade has surged significantly, driven by discounted Russian oil imports, necessitating the development of effective payment mechanisms to sustain this growth.
  • Joint Vision Statement: The Modi-Putin summit outlined action items in a Joint Vision statement on trade by 2030, prioritizing measures to circumvent Western sanctions and enhance bilateral economic cooperation.
  • Far East Cooperation: The joint statement on cooperation in Russia’s Far East aims to increase energy supplies and commodity exports, leveraging the yet-to-be-operationalized Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor.
  • Investment Strategies: Both nations seek mutual investments, exemplified by significant investments like Rosneft’s acquisition of a controlling stake in India’s Vadinar refinery and Indian stakes in Russian oil fields.
  • Sanction Dynamics: Despite financial implications, U.S. and European sanctions have avoided targeting these transactions, allowing India to continue leveraging these economic ties while anticipating more such deals in the future.

What India Needs to Do?

  1. Strengthen Diplomatic Channels: Enhance diplomatic engagements with both Russia and Western countries to maintain a balanced foreign policy. This involves continuous dialogue and reassurance of India’s strategic autonomy.
  2. Promote Strategic Autonomy: Assert India’s independence in foreign policy decisions, ensuring that relationships with major powers like Russia and the U.S. are based on national interests rather than external pressures.
  3. Expand Economic Cooperation: Develop and implement mechanisms to sustain and grow trade relations with Russia, particularly in energy and commodities, while navigating Western sanctions.
  4. Diversify Energy Sources: Secure long-term agreements for energy supplies from Russia, including oil and LNG, and explore new energy corridors such as the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime route.
  5. Invest in Joint Ventures: Encourage Indian public and private sectors to invest in Russian industries and vice versa, focusing on mutual benefits in sectors like oil, gas, and infrastructure.
  6. Leverage Multilateral Forums: Utilize platforms like BRICS, SCO, and the G20 to foster dialogue and cooperation with Russia and other key global players, addressing common challenges such as climate change and economic stability.
  7. Enhance Defence Collaboration: Continue defence cooperation with Russia, focusing on technology transfer, joint exercises, and diversification of military hardware to strengthen India’s defence capabilities.
  8. Support Peace Initiatives: Actively participate in global efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict, promoting peace proposals that align with international law and the UN Charter, while balancing relations with both Russia and Ukraine.

Conclusion

Modi’s visit to Russia highlights India’s strategic autonomy and long-term commitment to bilateral ties with Russia. Despite global reactions and uncertainties, the visit underscores India’s nuanced diplomatic approach in navigating complex global dynamics, focusing on enhancing strategic and economic relations while maintaining diverse diplomatic options.

Source:The Hindu

Mains Practice Question:

Discuss the implications of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Russia on India’s foreign policy, especially in the context of the ongoing Ukraine conflict and India’s relations with major global powers. How does this visit reflect India’s strategic autonomy and geo-economic interests?

Associated Article:

https://universalinstitutions.com/russian-president-vladimir-putin-not-to-attend-new-delhi-g20-summit/