SHIFTING DYNAMICS IN MYANMAR’S CIVIL WAR
Why in the News?
The Tatmadaw faces unprecedented challenges since the February 2021 coup, with recent events indicating a potential shift in the civil war dynamics.
Source: CRSREPORT
The Current Scenario:
- Since staging a coup on February 1, 2021, the Myanmar military has carried out a brutal nationwide crackdown on millions of people opposed to its rule.
- The junta security forces have carried out mass killings, arbitrary arrests, torture, sexual violence, and other abuses that amount to crimes against humanity.
Three Brotherhood Alliance’s Coordinated Attacks:
- Coordinated attacks by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (TBA) since late October have led to significant losses for the ruling junta.
- Scores of bases have been lost, and the Tatmadaw finds itself stretched thin as it battles opposition militias, particularly in rural areas.
Peoples’ Defense Forces and Ethnic Armed Forces:
- In response to the junta’s crackdowns, the National Unity Government (NUG) and its allies formed the Peoples’ Defense Forces, challenging the Tatmadaw.
- Ethnic armed forces, including Karen, Kachin, Chin, and Karenni, engage in hostilities, contributing to the junta’s weakening hold.
Ceasefire Groups Joining the Civil War:
- Ceasefire groups like the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and the Arakan Army shift from ceasefire status to active involvement in the civil war.
- The junta faces challenges in the northern Shan State and heightened hostilities in Rakhine State.
International Response and India’s Dilemma:
- While most international actors condemn the coup, only the European Parliament recognizes the NUG as Myanmar’s legitimate government.
- India, cautious about countering China’s influence, maintains ties with the junta but faces dilemmas amid the Tatmadaw’s tyrannical actions and growing resistance.
Reviewing Ties with the Junta:
- As the NUG gains legitimacy and envisions a federal, democratic Myanmar, India is urged to reassess its ties with the junta.
The Tatmadaw’s violent approaches against civilians and the rising resistance call for a reconsideration of India’s stance in the evolving Myanmar scenario.