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Nuclear signalling, the need for new guard rails.

Relevance:

GS – 01 (Mineral & Energy Resources),

GS – 03 (Nuclear Technology).GS –02 International relations

Context:

The conflict in Ukraine and the recourse to nuclear rhetoric have revived concerns about nuclear escalation management between the major nuclear powers.

About Nuclear Deterrence:

● The principle of nuclear deterrence was born out of the symbiosis of the principle of military deterrence and the emergence of nuclear weapons.

● It is a military doctrine according to which the possibility that a country will use the nuclear weapons it possesses in retaliation will deter an enemy from attacking.

● The idea came to the forefront of US military policy. It helps avoid a nuclear war as each side tries to secure their interests by avoiding a nuclear confrontation.

● Hypothetically, if Country A launches a nuclear war against Country B, Country B will be able to inflict enough damage on Country A that it would lead to what theorist call “Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).”

● The underlying logic is that Nobody will survive to claim oneself a winner.

Advantages offered by Nuclear Deterrence:

● Averting escalation of a world war: The threat of MAD is enough to prevent the world’s nuclear powers from escalating a conflict to the point that a military confrontation becomes inevitable.

● Promote stability: Analysts claim that nuclear weapons do not just protect countries against use of nuclear weapons by others, but even prevent war and promote stability.

● Increases stake and credibility of a nation: Security apparatus of a nation earns its global credibility. Having nuke inherently gives a geo-strategic advantage to countries.

● Prohibiting coercion: The role of the weapon is narrowly framed for safeguarding against nuclear blackmail and coercion.

Limitations of Nuclear Deterrence:

● Increase in proxy wars: Nukes have not been shown to prevent proxy wars and acts of terrorism by various non-state actors.

● Unequal advantage: With the unequal distribution of nuclear capabilities in today’s world, certain nations are at an immediate advantage over other countries.

● Alternative warfare: There is no assurance of peace even both conflicting countries may possess nuclear weapons. Biological wars have replaced nukes that are silent killers in disguise. Ex. Wuhan virus pandemic.

● Rise in cold and economic warfare: The world has entered into the phase of a new Cold War.

● Non–state actors acquiring nukes: In worst nightmares, there is a likelihood that of inadvertent escalation due to acquisition of the nukes by Talibans or any other terror outfits.

● Emergence of rogue states: Rogue nation or state regarded as breaking international law and posing a threat to the security of other nations. Ex. North Korea.

● Cyberattacks on nuclear command and control: China has been highly successful in manipulating power grids in Pakistan. This can also happen anywhere in the world triggering uncontrolled reactions in nuclear grids.

Nuclear Deterrence: Indian perspective

● Nuclear deterrence can serve as a pillar of international security only in conjunction with negotiations and agreements on the limitation, reduction, and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.

● Without them, deterrence fuels an endless arms race, while any serious crisis between the great powers will bring them to the brink of nuclear war.

● India believes that nuclear weapons are political weapons, not weapons of war fighting.

● Their sole purpose is to deter the use and threat of use of nuclear weapons.

Nuclear doctrine?

A nuclear doctrine determines the nuclear posture, provides guidance for deployment and targeting, chain of command and control, communication and signaling to adversary and, in the ultimate, the use of nuclear weapons.

What is India’s Nuclear Doctrine?

● India’s Nuclear Doctrine summarizes the following key principles.

● building and maintaining a credible minimum deterrent.

● posture of ‘No First Use’, nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere.

● nuclear retaliation to a first strike will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage.

● non-use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states; however, in the event of a major attack against India, or Indian forces anywhere, by biological or chemical weapons, India will retain the option of retaliating with nuclear weapons.

● The two key elements — a “credible minimum deterrent” and “no first use” — were first articulated by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

● He also stated that India did not see nuclear weapons as weapons of war; that their role was to ensure that India is not subjected to nuclear threats or coercion; that India will not engage in an arms race; and that India believes in a “no first use” policy and remains ready to discuss this with other countries, bilaterally or in a collective forum.

● Prime Minister Narendra Modi categorically stated that there was no change in policy and “no first use” remained India’s nuclear doctrine.

● India’s doctrine does not mention any country, but it is no secret that the Indian nuclear arsenal is to counter threats from China and Pakistan.

What are our neighbor’s policies?

● China has maintained a ‘no first use’ policy since 1964 when it went nuclear, and the Chinese leadership has always considered nuclear weapons as political weapons.

● Pakistan has adopted a first-use policy to ensure full-spectrum deterrence; in other words, it envisages a tactical, operational and strategic role for its nuclear weapons.

● Since it maintains that its nuclear arsenal is exclusively against India, it seeks to counter India’s conventional superiority at all levels.

● Another difference is that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is totally under the military’s control, and by and large, the military approach to any weapon system is to find a use for it; it is difficult for the military to possess a weapon system and then conceive of a doctrine that aims at deterring its use.

How significant is the deterrence?

● Deterrence is a product of ‘technical capability’ and ‘political will’. In dealing with Pakistan, India has to define who is to be deterred and find ways of demonstrating the requisite political will even as we build up our technical capabilities. e.g Israel is a state possessing advanced technical capabilities and also having demonstrated political will. Yet, this has failed to deter rocket strikes and terror attacks on Israeli territory.

● This is not to suggest that India’s nuclear doctrine cannot be changed. It should be periodically reviewed and updated, possibly every decade or so, taking into account technological developments and changes in the security environment.

● Ultimately, deterrence is a mental construct which requires clarity in its planning. Even ambiguity needs to be a calculated ambiguity. Only then will the doctrine serve to reassure the Indian people even as it deters the adversary in order to safeguard India’s security.

Way forward:

● Nuclear deterrence is not just a Cold War term but is extremely valid in a post-Cold War scenario.

● It is used by countries as a bargaining chip to deter nuclear retaliation by other countries.

● However, it should be noted that nuclear deterrence is not the only answer to security problems and its application can be enhanced by using other strategies such as peace talks and confidence-building measures.

Source: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/nuclear-signalling-the-need-for-new-guard-rails/article67155107.ece