What's New

Not the New NAM.

Relevance

• GS 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and Agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.
• Tags: #NAM #BRICS #BRICSExpansion #IndianExpressEditorialAnalysis.

Why in the News?

The two nations, who are still at odds over a disputed boundary, are scheduled to hold bilateral discussions next week in Johannesburg in conjunction with a conference of the BRICS emerging market powers.

BRICS Summit and Geopolitical Intentions

• The recent headlines suggest Delhi’s focus on a potential meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Johannesburg, overshadowing the agenda of the BRICS forum.
• Bilateral meetings often take precedence over multilateral summits due to their immediate significance.

Ladakh Standoff vs. BRICS Summit Rhetoric

• The resolution of India’s military standoff with China in Ladakh holds more importance than the rhetoric on global issues at the BRICS summit.
• Progress in Ladakh’s military disengagement surpasses discussions on dethroning the US dollar.

Expansion of BRICS Membership: Relevance and Challenges

• The interest in joining BRICS highlights its perceived relevance, but mere numbers don’t enhance an organization’s effectiveness.
• More members means more bilateral differences – The more countries that are part of a regional cooperation bloc, the more likely it is that there will be bilateral differences between them. These differences can range from minor disagreements to major conflicts.
• Bilateral differences can limit the effectiveness of regional cooperation – When countries are involved in a conflict with each other, it can be difficult for them to cooperate on other issues. This can limit the effectiveness of regional cooperation blocs.

Examples of regional cooperation blocs that have been limited by bilateral differences

• The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has been limited by the tensions between India and Pakistan.
• The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has struggled to manage India-Pakistan and India-China differences.
• The BRICS bloc has been affected by the conflict between India and China.

BRICS expansion and China’s political intentions

China champions BRICS expansion for political reasons

• China sees BRICS as a political platform to mobilize the non-Western world in its rivalry with the US.
• Balancing the US was also the original motivation for Moscow in promoting the BRICS.

BRICS was originally a marketing gimmick

• Goldman Sachs coined the term “BRIC” in 2001 to refer to Brazil, Russia, India, and China.
• The acronym was later expanded to BRICS to include South Africa.

 The expansion of BRICS is likely to be challenging

• The new members may not share the same interests and goals as the existing members.
• There may be disagreements on how to manage the organization.

BRICS and the Global South

China and Russia are seeking to counter the influence of the US

• They are doing this by forming alliances and strengthening their military capabilities.
• They are also working to undermine the US-led international order.

Some people believe that the BRICS countries represent the interests of the Global South

• They argue that the BRICS countries are working to promote economic development and cooperation among developing countries.

Others argue that the BRICS countries are not a reliable force for the Global South.

• They point out that the BRICS countries are also competing for power and influence.
• Some people believe that the BRICS countries are the leaders of the Global South and that the BRICS summit is a new Bandung Conference.
• However, the BRICS countries are not a monolithic bloc and they do not always agree on the same issues.
• The BRICS countries also have different interests and goals, and they are not necessarily opposed to the US.

Bandung Conference and the Non-Aligned Movement

• The Bandung Conference was a meeting of Afro-Asian leaders in 1955.
• The goal of the conference was to promote cooperation and solidarity among developing countries.
• The Bandung Conference was not a political alliance and did not have the same goals as the BRICS.

Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) was formed in the wake of the Bandung Conference

• The NAM is a forum for developing countries to coordinate their positions on international issues.
• The NAM has been a force for peace and stability in the world.
• The NAM has also been a voice for the developing countries in the global economy.

BRICS and the Non-Aligned Movement

• BRICS countries are not members of the Non-Aligned Movement.
• However, some BRICS countries have expressed support for the NAM.
• BRICS countries have different interests and goals.

It is not clear whether the BRICS countries will be able to work together effectively to promote the interests of the Global South.

BRICS’ Distorted Direction: From Multipolar Vision to Bipolar Confrontation

Beijing and Moscow’s Agenda

• The original intent of BRICS was to counter the unipolar dominance and establish a multipolar global order.
• However, China and Russia are steering BRICS towards a confrontational stance against the West, undermining its initial purpose.

Contrasting Origins: NAM vs. Global South

NAM’s Unifying Goal

• The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) aimed to prevent East-West rivalries and foster cooperation among nations.
• In contrast, the Global South addresses disparities between developed and developing nations.

China’s Transformation and Global South Connection

China’s Economic Status

• China’s ascent to the world’s second-largest economy is altering its role.
• Its capital is extensively penetrating the Global South, reshaping its influence in international affairs.

Debunking altruistic capital

• The belief that Chinese capital is more benevolent than western capital is questionable.
• There is no evidence to support this claim. Both Chinese and Western capital can be used to exploit developing countries.

The Yuan-dominated world economy

• The claim that a Yuan-dominated world economy would be more benign than one dominated by the US dollar is also questionable.
• There is no guarantee that a Yuan-dominated world economy would be any more fair or equitable than the current system.

China’s neocolonialism vs. Western imperialism

Neocolonialism

• Neocolonialism is a term used to describe the economic and political influence that a more powerful country exerts over a weaker country, even after the formal end of colonialism.
• China has been accused of neocolonialism in its dealings with countries in the Global South.
• Critics argue that China’s economic investments in these countries are often used to exploit their resources and labor, and that China’s political influence is used to stifle dissent and promote its own interests.

Western imperialism

• Western imperialism is a term used to describe the political, economic, and cultural domination of non-Western countries by European powers.
• Western imperialism has a long history, and it has been responsible for the exploitation and oppression of millions of people.
• Some argue that China’s neocolonialism is no worse than Western imperialism, and that it is simply a reflection of the changing balance of power in the world.
• Others argue that China’s neocolonialism is more troubling than Western imperialism because it is more aggressive and less transparent.

BRICS Attraction: Geopolitical Maneuvering and Bargaining

Motivations for BRICS Membership

• Countering Western dominance: Many countries are motivated to join BRICS because they see it as a way to counter the dominance of the West in the global economy and politics.
• Securing economic benefits: BRICS countries offer a number of economic benefits to their members, such as access to new markets, investment opportunities, and technology.
• Promoting South-South cooperation: BRICS countries are also interested in promoting cooperation among developing countries.

Leveraging BRICS for Negotiation

• China and Russia: China and Russia are the two most powerful members of BRICS, and they use the forum to enhance their negotiation power with the West.
• Focus on interests: China and Russia are not focused on ideological alignment with other BRICS members. They are more interested in securing favorable terms and agreements that serve their own interests.

Bargaining Power with the US

• The key incentive for countries to align with BRICS is to bolster their bargaining position vis-à-vis the US.
• The collective weight of the BRICS forum empowers member states to assert their interests during negotiations.

Domestic Political Appeal

• The posture of opposition to the West resonates well with the political elites of member countries.
• Demonstrating a tough stance against powerful Western nations enhances their popularity domestically.

Departure from Ideological Focus

• In contrast to the past, where ideological motivations were central, present-day post-colonial elites prioritize strategic power plays over ideological alignments.

Focus on Assertive Strategies

• Modern post-colonial elites are less driven by ideological agendas and more inclined to adopt assertive strategies when dealing with major global powers.

BRICS’ Credibility: A Crucial Geopolitical Question

• China and Russia’s Ambition: The ultimate concern revolves around whether China and Russia can successfully transform BRICS into a respected platform against Western influence.
• Uncertain Prospects for Success: The assessment of their success is complex, with both favorable and challenging aspects influencing the outcome.
• Visible Successes in Johannesburg: China’s achievements in this endeavor will become apparent during the Johannesburg summit, showcasing its progress in this direction.
• South Africa’s Alignment with China: Notably, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa’s gesture of hosting Xi Jinping for a state visit and co-chairing a China-Africa dialogue at the BRICS summit signals the growing proximity between Pretoria and Beijing.
• Russia’s Geopolitical Gains in Africa: Russia, too, has made strides in increasing its geopolitical influence in Africa, potentially at the expense of Western powers.
• Comparing African Gains and Western Losses: While Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have made advancements in the African geopolitical sphere, these gains pale in significance when compared to their losses in their more direct confrontations with Western powers.

China-Russia Alliance and Shifting Dynamics

Early Optimism in 2022: In February 2022, China and Russia announced an “alliance without limits,” raising expectations of a formidable force challenging Western dominance.

Changing Fortunes for Russia

Unforeseen War and Isolation

• Russia’s situation shifted drastically. It became embroiled in a prolonged, unwinnable conflict with Ukraine.
• Additionally, it faced isolation from its natural Western European partners and endured heavy international sanctions.

China’s Economic Evolution and Challenges

• Anticipation of Growth: Initially, global anticipation was high for China to transition from a zero-Covid policy and lead renewed economic growth on a global scale.
• Disappointing Economic Performance: However, China’s economy faced challenges, leading to underwhelming growth and disappointing international expectations.

Structural Challenges for China

• Debt, Demographic, and Decoupling Concerns: China’s policymakers grapple with significant structural issues including mounting debt, demographic decline, and the need to navigate decoupling from Western economies.

US Reversal of Perception

• Resurgence of the US: Despite predictions of terminal decline, the US has surprised observers by experiencing a revival on both economic and geopolitical fronts.

China’s Economic Supremacy Uncertainty

• China’s Overtaking in Doubt: The notion of China surpassing the US economy has been pushed to a distant and uncertain future, if it even materializes.

US Pressure and Measures

• Persistent Economic and Technological Pressure: Washington has consistently applied economic and technological measures to counter China’s influence and growth.

Formation of Strategic Coalitions

• New Geopolitical Alignments: The US has strategically formed coalitions around China’s periphery, including the Quad with Australia, India, and Japan, AUKUS with Australia and the UK, and a trilateral coalition with Japan and South Korea.

Empowerment of Allies

Support Empowering Allies

• The US’s strengthened support has emboldened its allies.
• Manila, subjected to Beijing’s coercion, is now standing up with enhanced support from Washington.

Xi-Putin Geopolitical Ambitions

• March Visit to Moscow: During his visit to Moscow in March, Xi Jinping discussed significant global changes he and Vladimir Putin aimed to bring about through their partnership.

Noticeable Shift in Six Months

• Diminished Ambitions: However, in just six months, a significant shift has become evident. Xi and Putin’s ambitious pursuits and excessive actions have led to a diminishing of their international standing.

Questioning Leadership Role

• Leadership Doubts: Their actions, characterized by excessive ambition and overreach, raise doubts about their suitability to lead global initiatives, especially in uniting countries of the Global South against the perceived Western dominance.

Reinventing US Influence

• Unintended Reinvention: Ironically, Xi and Putin’s actions have unintentionally contributed to the US’s resurgence and redefined its influence in the Eurasian region.

Challenging Vision for the Future

• Unlikely Deliverance: Given their actions’ repercussions and the evolving geopolitical landscape, it’s doubtful that Xi and Putin can successfully guide the Global South to the anticipated liberation from perceived Western influence.

The initial perception of Xi and Putin as agents of global change has altered due to their aggressive strategies and unintended consequences. The likelihood of them leading a movement against Western influence is questionable in light of their recent actions.

Source: Indian Express

Mains Question

Examine the challenges faced by BRICS in maintaining its cohesion and effectiveness as a multilateral organization. How have differences in member countries’ interests impacted its decision-making processes?