“NAVIGATING STATE BUDGETS: INSIGHTS AND PROJECTIONS FOR FISCAL YEAR 2024-25”
Syllabus:
- GS-3 – Indian Economy , Fiscal federalism and related issues
Focus :
- Overview of the availability of state budget data and sources of information.
- Analysis of state bond auctions in the current fiscal year and projections for gross borrowing.
Source- IE
Introduction:
- The significance of understanding state budgets in the context of India’s fiscal health.
- Overview of the availability of state budget data and sources of information.
Revenue Outlook:
- Analysis of revenue projections for fiscal year 2024-25 based on available state budgets.
- Expectation of a 9.2% growth in combined revenue receipts.
- Discussion on the importance of accurate base revenues and own tax revenues (OTR) growth.
- Concerns regarding lower-than-expected growth in key components of own taxes.
Transfers from the Centre:
- Examination of taxes devolved by the Centre and projected growth for the fiscal year.
- Historical trends in tax devolution and its impact on state revenues.
- Variability in actual grants received from the Centre compared to budget estimates.
- Factors influencing the decline in combined grants during April-February 2023-24.
Expenditure Patterns:
- Forecast of revenue and capital expenditure growth rates for fiscal year 2024-25.
- Analysis of the surge in capital expenditure during April-February 2023-24.
- Expectation of a slower start to capital spending due to ongoing parliamentary elections.
- Prediction of back-ended capital spending influencing state borrowings.
About Budget :
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State Borrowing Dynamics:
- Review of state borrowing trends in the previous fiscal year.
- Examination of actual debt issuance in March 2024 compared to initial indications.
- Impact of factors such as the model code of conduct and borrowing limits on state borrowings.
- Analysis of state bond auctions in the current fiscal year and projections for gross borrowing.
Conclusion:
- Projections for state gross borrowing for fiscal year 2024-25.
- Anticipation of easing supply-demand dynamics in the government bond market.
- Expectation of lower borrowing costs due to anticipated rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Committee.
Source:Indian Express
Mains Practice Question :
GS-3
“Discuss the significance of analyzing state budgets for understanding India’s fiscal health. Suggest measures to address challenges and ensure fiscal sustainability at the state level.”.(250 words)