INDIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC JOURNEY OF HITS AND MISSES

Relevance: GS 1 – Population and Associated Issues

Why in the News?

  • World Population Day is observed on July 11, established by the United Nations in 1989.
  • The concept was proposed by K.C. Zachariah, a renowned demographer.
  • As of now, the global population is estimated to be around 8.1 billion, with India being the most populous nation at approximately 1.44 billion, slightly surpassing China’s population.
  • India’s demographic journey includes:
    • Pulling back from the brink of a demographic disaster.
    • Striving to reach the target year of 2030 for the Sustainable Development Goals.

Population Trends in the 1970s and beyond

  • Global population growth rate was at 2% per year.
  • Predicted doom for India with widespread poverty, hunger, and deaths anticipated.
  • Contrary to predictions, subsequent decades revealed different outcomes.
  • Improvements in Global and Indian Demographics
    • Rapid decline in global fertility rates.
    • Increased life expectancy due to better living conditions and medical infrastructure.
    • India’s fertility rates began to fall since the 1970s, currently below the replacement level.
      • Significant progress in health parameters in India: Reductions in maternal mortality, Reductions in child mortality.
UPSC Topic : Relevance: GS 1 - Population and Associated Issues

UPSC Topic : INDIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC JOURNEY OF HITS AND MISSES

India’s Population Dynamics

Key Components

Fertility

  • Annual population growth rate has sharply declined from nearly 2% to below 1%.
  • Total Fertility Rate (TFR) decreased from 3.4 to 2 between 1992 and 2021 (NFHS-5).
  • Current TFR is below the replacement level of 2.1.

Mortality

  • Significant drop in mortality rates.
  • Increase in average life expectancy.
  • Shift towards an ageing population:
  • 8.6% of the population aged 60+ in 2011.
  • Projected to rise to 19.5% by 2050.

Migration: Rapid rural-to-urban migration posing challenges to urban infrastructure.

 Implications of Changing Dynamics

    • Fertility Reduction:
      • Transition towards smaller family norms.
      • Potential for a demographic dividend with a larger working-age population than dependent population.
      • Need to create employment for the young workforce.
    • Mortality Decline and Increased Life Expectancy
      • Average life expectancy has increased from 61 years to 70 years in the year 1997 to 2024.
      • Reflect robust healthcare system and improved living standards.
      • Long-term plans needed for population ageing, focusing on geriatric care and social security benefits.
    • Economic Growth:
      • Per capita GDP has increased sixfold, from $400 to $2,400.
      • This indicates substantial economic growth and development over the years.
    • Regional Disparities:
      • Poverty is not evenly distributed across the country.
      • Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Jharkhand account for 83% of the national total of people below the poverty line, despite comprising only 34% of India’s total population.
      • Addressing these disparities is a priority for both central and state governments.

Impact on Climate change

The impact of climate change presents a significant challenge for India, affecting its population disproportionately compared to developed nations. Here are some key points to consider:

Per Capita Consumption Disparity:

  • OECD countries, with a per capita income of $40,000 and a population of 1.39 billion, consume $55.6 trillion worth of natural resources and goods.
    • In contrast, India, with a per capita GDP of $2,400 and a population of 1.44 billion, consumes only $3.5 trillion worth.
  • This disparity in consumption patterns is a major contributor to global warming and adverse climate effects.

Impact on Developing Nations:

  • Climate change exacerbates unpredictable weather patterns, disproportionately affecting poorer populations in developing countries.
  • These populations often lack adequate housing and infrastructure to withstand extreme weather events, leading to more severe impacts.

Economic Priorities vs. Climate Change Mitigation:

  • With 11% of its population still below the poverty line, India prioritizes economic growth to alleviate poverty.
  • Mitigating climate change, while crucial, competes with immediate economic development needs for resources and attention.

Global Responsibility and Negotiations:

  • India advocates at global forums for its right to pursue economic growth to uplift its population from poverty.
  • The responsibility to mitigate climate change is increasingly seen as shared among OECD countries and emerging economies like China.

India’s SDG Journey – No Poverty, Zero Hunger, and Good Health

Addressing economic inequality, malnutrition, and the dual disease burden are critical for achieving the SDGs by 2030.

  • No Poverty
    • Poverty rate reduced from 48% in 1990 to 10% in 2019.
    • Despite the significant reduction, 10% of 144 crore still represents a large number of 16 crore people living in poverty.
    • Key initiatives:
      • Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) in 2006.
      • Janani Suraksha Yojana of 2005 for cash benefits to pregnant women.
    • Zero Hunger
      • Self-sufficiency in crop production achieved through the Green Revolution.
      • Hunger rate reduced from 18.3% in 2001 to 16.6% in 2021.
      • Challenges:
        • India contributes a third of the global malnutrition burden.
        • POSHAN Abhiyaan launched in 2018, but the Zero Hunger target by 2030 remains challenging.
      • Good Health
        • Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) decreased from 384.4 in 2000 to 102.7 in 2020.
        • Under-five mortality rate and infant mortality rate have also seen significant declines.
          • Progress attributed to improved healthcare quality and coverage.
        • Road to 2030
          • Population dynamics intersect with development goals.
          • Addressing gender equality and socio-cultural divides essential for sustainable development.
          • Comprehensive understanding of population issues crucial for achieving true sustainable development by 2030.

Sustainable development requires a holistic approach that ensures equitable distribution of development benefits and addresses socio-economic disparities.

Challenges to Population Dynamics

While India has made notable progress in poverty reduction, self-sufficiency in food production, and healthcare improvements, significant challenges remain.

  • Urbanisation
    • Need for sustainable urban infrastructure to accommodate rapid migration.
  • Gender Inequality
    • Importance of women’s labor force participation.
    • Addressing women’s political representation and societal challenges.
    • Gender equality critical for achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
  • Economic Inequality
    • Top 10% of the population holds 77% of the national wealth.
    • Top 1% holds 40% of the total wealth.
    • Equitable distribution of development benefits is crucial for sustainable development.
  • Hunger and Nutrition
    • India ranked 111 out of 125 countries in the Global Hunger Index (2023).
    • High rates of stunting, wasting, and underweight among children below five years.
    • High prevalence of anemia among women.
  • Health Sector Challenges
    • Double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCDs).
    • Early onset of NCDs and rising health needs of the elderly.

Key Areas for India to Focus On to Achieve the SDGs

  • Acknowledge Changing Population Dynamics in Policy Formation: Integrate population changes into policy development.
  • Address Income Inequality
    • Implement measures to reduce the wealth gap.
    • Ensure equitable distribution of development benefits.
  • Harness the Demographic Dividend
    • Create job opportunities for the youth.
    • Invest in education and skill development programs.
  • Address Changing Health Needs
    • Tackle the rise of non-communicable diseases (NCDs).
    • Provide a stronger safety net to protect families from high out-of-pocket medical expenses.
    • Strengthen healthcare infrastructure and services.
  • Improve Nutrition Programs
    • Enhance and expand existing nutrition initiatives.
    • Increase budgetary allocation for health and nutrition sectors.
  • Promote Gender Equality
    • Empower vulnerable women and ensure gender equality in all sectors.
    • Implement gender-sensitive policies and programs.
  • Ensure Multi-sectoral Collaboration and Political Will
    • Foster collaboration between different sectors and stakeholders.
    • Demonstrate strong political commitment to achieving the SDGs.

Associate articles

https://universalinstitutions.com/elderly-population-in-india/

https://universalinstitutions.com/charting-a-path-for-the-population-committee/

https://universalinstitutions.com/preparation-for-an-aging-population/U

Source: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/indias-demographic-journey-of-hits-and-misses/article68389915.ece

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/world-population-day-a-case-of-people-versus-population/article68389839.ece

Mains question

“Discuss the evolving dynamics of population in India, focusing on demographic shifts, socio-economic implications, and policy measures needed to address challenges and harness opportunities. (250 words)”