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India- Pakistan Relationship

Context: India-Pakistan relations have entered an age of minimalism, counter-intuitive as there is very little bilateral contact today, even fewer expectations of a bilateral breakthrough, and hardly any warmth in the relationship. Yet, there is a certain ‘cold peace’ between the traditional rivals — on the Line of Control, inside Kashmir and in the verbal exchanges between the two side.

Present State of relationship

• India-Pakistan relations are characterized by intense engagement, high value terror attacks, Indian responses, a breakdown of talks, and eventual resumption of talks; rinse and repeat — may well be a thing of the past.
• The age of minimalism in India-Pakistan relations is characterized by several noticeable features.
• For one, the interlocutors on either side (more so on the Indian side) appear to have adopted a clinical approach to dealing with the other side: discuss and deal with only those issues that need urgent attention.
• The second feature is the unmissable focus on conflict management, with little focus on conflict resolution.
• The third important aspect of this minimalist approach is that it has so far served as a useful platform for clarifying red lines, expectation management, and achieving limited but clear outcomes. The 2021 February ceasefire agreement is one such outcome.
• Today, there is no political will for any grand relationship, grand gestures or grand outreach.
• The bilateral contact is tactical, business-like and unemotional.

Reason for such Situation

• The relationship is the history of missed opportunities, failed attempts at conflict resolution, political inability to resolve conflicts due to the dual power centre in Pakistan. These disappointments have led to a recognition in New Delhi, that making comprehensive peace with Pakistan is a fool’s errand.

• Second, there is a recognition on both sides that there is no easy way to resolve their complicated conflicts and that, going forward, bilateral conflict resolution may get harder due to rising populism fuelled by online hate.

• Third, New Delhi also realizes that the traditional logic in India that it should first settle its conflicts with Pakistan and then move on to addressing the bigger challenges may take New Delhi nowhere for, after all, none of the key bilateral conflicts between them has been resolved since the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960.

• Four, there is also a certain confidence in New Delhi today that it does not need to talk to Pakistan to ensure peace inside Kashmi This growing confidence will further moderate India’s desire to have elaborate conflict resolution exercises with Pakistan.

• Finally, both sides today are preoccupied with other geopolitical challenges — Pakistan with the Taliban-led Afghanistan, and India with an aggressive China on its borders — thereby keeping them busy elsewhere than with each other.

Way Forward

The most important aspect of this minimalist approach is the current arrangement, wherein there is little contact between New Delhi and Islamabad but between Rawalpindi and New Delhi, has not only corrected the structural problem in India-Pakistan relations, it also appears that the Pakistan Army takes this direct approach more seriously.

To that extent, this is a win-win strategy. And yet, given that the current strategy of minimalist engagement with the Pakistani deep state is unlikely to be able to tackle the larger substantive political questions, the process may run into challenges over time or its tactical utility might eventually be exhausted. The single most handicap of this process is that it is ill-suited to deal with larger political questions.