India and China: Need Each Other. But Will the Detente Last?

Why in the News?

  • Economic, military, and political factors serve as key drivers of India-China détente.
  • These drivers are expected to gain greater significance with Donald Trump assuming leadership in Washington.
  • India and China are engaging in dialogue again rather than speaking past each other.
  • A key question arises: Is this a return to the pre-Galwan “normal” or a temporary thaw likely to revert to conflict?

Historical Framework (1988 Onwards):

Rajiv Gandhi’s 1988 trip to Beijing marked a turning point, establishing four pillars of stability:

  1. Summitry: Regular meetings between the top leadership, bilaterally and multilaterally.
  2. Border Negotiations: Over 30 years of uninterrupted talks aimed at a territorial settlement.
  3. Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs): Agreements to minimize the risk of military escalation, with Galwan being an exception rather than the norm.
  4. People-to-People (P2P) Ties: Enhanced societal-level connections through tourism, cultural exchanges, academic links, and trade.

Outcomes of P2P Engagement:

  • Thousands of Indian students in China benefit from affordable, high-quality education.
  • These exchanges foster deeper understanding of China beyond media narratives.

FACTORS DRIVING INDIA-CHINA NORMAL DIPLOMACY

Economic Drivers:

  • Interdependence: India and China need each other to sustain economic growth.
  • India’s Perspective:
  • The Indian economy remains on a 30-year growth trajectory of 7% per annum.
  • Indian businesses depend heavily on Chinese products, including pharmaceuticals, electronics, and infrastructure.
  • China’s Perspective:
  • China’s economy is slowing to 5% per annum, with further deceleration possible.
  • Chinese businesses aim to diversify amid growing Western protectionism.
  • India offers a vast and untapped market for Chinese goods.

Military Drivers:

  • Stalemate on the Border:
  • Post-Galwan, both nations are maintaining massive deployments in harsh environments to defend their territories.
  • Such deployments strain resources, including manpower, equipment, and finances.
  • No Decisive Victory Possible:
  • Given the terrain and climate, neither side can secure an outright military victory.
  • Other Priorities: Both countries face additional military challenges that demand attention and resources.

Political Drivers:

  • The leadership of Donald Trump in the U.S. has heightened the need for India and China to recalibrate their bilateral relations amidst shifting global dynamics.

ADDITIONAL FACTORS SHAPING INDIA-CHINA DIPLOMACY

Military Considerations:

  • India’s Concerns:
  • Persistent threat of conflict with Pakistan over cross-border terrorism.
  • Possibility of a two-front war involving China and Pakistan.
  • China’s Concerns:
  • Military tensions in East Asia, including potential conflicts over – Taiwan, Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands with Japan, South China Sea with the Philippines.
  • Risk of U.S. involvement in these disputes, which could escalate tensions.
  • Impact of Trump’s Presidency: Heightened apprehensions for China over the U.S.’ active military and strategic role in the region. 

Political Challenges:

  • India’s Perspective:
  • Despite improving ties with the U.S., significant differences remain – Immigration policies, Trade disputes, U.S. relations with Pakistan and Bangladesh, Criticism of India’s democratic record, Accusations from both sides over alleged extremist activities.
  • Trump’s presidency may ease some concerns but worsen others like trade and immigration.
  • China’s Perspective:
  • Continued concerns over U.S. weaponization of trade and technology.
  • Ongoing U.S. criticism of China’s policies in Tibet and Xinjiang.
  • Common Strategic Challenge:
  • Both India and China face the need to enhance their leverage with the U.S.
  • A shared approach could involve signaling alternative strategic partnerships to counter excessive pressure from Washington.

WILL THE INDIA-CHINA DÉTENTE LAST?

  • Historical Confrontations: India and China have faced recurring clashes since 2010:
    • 2013: Depsang.
    • 2014: Chumar.
    • 2015: Burtse.
    • 2017: Doklam.
    • 2020: Galwan (casualties).
    • 2022: Yangtse (casualties).
    • These incidents highlight the fragility of peace and the potential for future conflicts.

Challenges to Lasting Peace:

  • Territorial Disputes: Hard to manage and even harder to resolve, given the connection to sovereignty.
  • Sovereignty and National Identity: Both nations are highly sensitive to challenges due to historical memories of colonialism and imperialism.
  • Enduring sense of victimhood, as noted by Manjari Chatterjee Miller, adds to the difficulty of resolution.
  • Leadership Dynamics: A grand bargain between Modi and Xi is possible but unlikely in the near term due to lack of urgency on both sides.

DRIVERS OF DÉTENTE:

  • Structural Factors: Economic interdependence, Military stalemate and resource strain,  Political concerns over the U.S.’ role and influence.
  • These long-term drivers suggest that the thaw in relations will likely continue, even if a comprehensive border and strategic agreement remains elusive.
  • Outlook: While a return to full normalisation is possible, periodic clashes cannot be ruled out due to unresolved territorial disputes and deep-seated mistrust.

Source:https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-and-china-need-each-other-but-will-the-detente-last-9806566/

Mains question

Discuss the key drivers of India-China détente and the challenges to long-term normalization of relations. (250 words)