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If Trump-Led US Break the Russia-China Alliance, Who Will Fall First?
Relevance: GS 2 – Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests
Why in the News?
- Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping prioritizing bilateral relations with the US over forming a unified front against Washington.
- Emergence of the “alliance without limits” between Moscow and Beijing announced in February 2022.
- Alliance highlights strategic cooperation across security, economic, and political domains, emphasizing unrestricted collaboration.
- Announcement made just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscoring its geopolitical significance.
Historical Oscillation of Russia-China Relations
- 1950s: Ideological allies against American imperialism.
- 1970s: Both sought separate deals with the US, accusing each other of betrayal.
- Late 1990s: Renewed partnership to counter Washington’s dominance.
Moscow-Beijing Strategic Ties and Global Power Dynamics
- Strengthened Strategic Ties: Moscow and Beijing’s strategic partnership has deepened since the early 2000s. The February 2022 declaration marked unprecedented anti-American solidarity.
- Shared Vision of Change: Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin see themselves driving historic global changes. Both leaders believe the US-dominated world order has been crumbling since the 2008 financial crisis.
- Factors Supporting the Belief in US Decline: Rise of “declinist” narratives in the US, especially during the Obama and Trump administrations. Growing global interest in BRICS and the perceived ascent of the Global South.
Contrary Trends Undermining US Decline Narrative:
- Resilient US economy outpacing growth in the European Union and China.
- Continued US leadership in technological innovation and investment attraction.
- Structural challenges in Europe, including declining population, unemployment, and slower growth.
- China’s economic deceleration due to demographic issues, debt, and trade tensions.
Global Dynamics to the Sino-Russian Alliance
Middle East Dynamics:
- Iran, a key Sino-Russian ally, is on the defensive amid mounting challenges.
- Iranian proxies in Gaza and Lebanon have faced setbacks.
- Bashar al-Assad has sought refuge in Moscow, reflecting the region’s instability.
- Israel has weakened Iran’s “axis of resistance,” shifting the narrative from regional dominance to the survival of the Islamic Republic.
Asian Realignment:
- US has revitalized alliances and formed new institutions like the Quad and AUKUS to counter China’s influence.
- Beijing faces mounting pressure from a slowing economy and intensified US economic strategies, potentially forcing it to reconsider its regional and global strategies.
Republican Policy Focus:
- Within Republican circles, emphasis is on countering China in Asia rather than expending resources in Ukraine.
- Suggestions include negotiating a deal with Putin on Ukraine to recalibrate focus toward China.
- Trump’s campaign emphasizes “un-uniting” Russia and China by exploiting inherent contradictions between the two nations.
US Resurgence and Strategic Realignment:
- America’s economic rebound strengthens its global influence.
- A potential Trump return could bolster US political resolve against Sino-Russian ambitions for a post-Western order.
- US priorities are being reassessed in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia due to Sino-Russian efforts.
- Economic Projections:
- US GDP for 2024 estimated at $29 trillion, outpacing China’s $19 trillion, the Eurozone’s $16 trillion, and Russia’s $2.5 trillion. China’s overtaking of the US in GDP terms appears unlikely in the near term.
Challenges to the Sino-Russian Alliance:
- Trump’s strategy envisions enticing both Moscow and Beijing into separate agreements with the US.
- While economic ties and shared anti-Western interests bind Moscow and Beijing, both leaders may prioritize bilateral relations with the US over a unified front.
- Sceptics doubt the feasibility of such a strategy, citing continued anti-American posturing by both nations.
- Despite efforts, the alliance has not achieved anticipated successes in countering US influence.
- Russia’s prolonged “special military operation” in Ukraine has inflicted heavy personnel and resource losses.
- Russia’s political and economic standing in Europe has significantly eroded.
- With diminishing prospects of a strong post-conflict position, Russia may seek a pragmatic settlement with the West, reflecting President Putin’s realist approach.
Trump’s Diplomatic Goals
Potential for Betrayal:
- The “alliance without limits” between Putin and Xi faces inherent risks of betrayal, as statecraft often prioritizes self-interest over alliances.
- Historical reference to the Panchatantra’s “Mitrabhedam” highlights the timeless complexities of friendship, trust, and betrayal among sovereigns.
- Trump aims to fracture the Russia-China alliance, testing his diplomatic acumen.
- Historical precedent shows the possibility of leveraging tensions between Moscow and Beijing.
India’s Perspective to the Challenges that lies Ahead:
- India prefers a reconciliation between Moscow and Washington, as it could facilitate a “multipolar Asia.”
- Conversely, India is wary of a US-China deal that could lead to a “bipolar Asia,” limiting India’s strategic autonomy.
- Complex issues must be resolved for any US deal with Russia or China.
- While Delhi has limited influence over US efforts, the outcomes will have significant regional implications.
Associated article
https://universalinstitutions.com/trumps-2024-victory-global-shifts-and-implications/
https://universalinstitutions.com/tag/trump/
Mains Question:
Examine the evolving dynamics of the Sino-Russian alliance and assess the implications of US strategies to fracture their partnership on global power structures and India’s strategic interests. (250 words)
