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HOW A ‘NEW’ JAPAN PROMISES TO TRANSFORM ASIAN GEOPOLITICS
Relevance: GS 2 – Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.
Why in the news?
- Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s recent address to the United States Congress and summit meeting with President Joe Biden heralded Japan’s assertive new stance on the global stage.
About the News
- Japan has abandoned its post-war pacifism and is striving to become a major military power, marking a historic shift.
- This transformation is poised to reshape the geopolitics of Asia and the world.
- A politically resolute and militarily strong Japan aligns with India’s objective of fostering a multipolar Asia within a multipolar world.
- The significance lies in Japan’s evolving role and its potential impact on global dynamics.
Japan’s Post-World War II Pacifism
After World War II, Japan embraced pacifism, refraining from significant military buildup, defense spending, or involvement in conflicts.
- This stance aimed to atone for pre-War militarism and imperialism, emphasizing reconciliation and peace.
- Bilateral Alliance with the US:
- Compensating for its pacifist policy, Japan formed a close military alliance with the United States, relying on American protection in Asia.
- This partnership allowed Japan to focus on economic recovery, leading to becoming a global economic and technological powerhouse by the late 1960s.
- Shift Towards Military Power:
- Presently, Japan is undergoing a transformation into a major military power, transitioning its civilian industrial prowess into a military-industrial complex.
- This shift signifies a departure from being solely under US protection to becoming a significant contributor to Asian and Indo-Pacific security.
- Geopolitical Strategy:
- In the mid-2000s, Japan initiated discussions on a new security architecture in Asia, introducing the concept of the Indo-Pacific.
- The concept gained traction and support from various nations, including Australia, Indonesia, India, and the United States.
- Active Regional Reshaping:
- In the current transition, Japan is aligning its strategic vision with military capabilities and political determination to actively shape the regional security order.
- Prime Minister Kishida’s visit to Washington DC symbolized Japan’s emergence as a new geopolitical player, emphasizing its role in reshaping regional dynamics.
Reason for radical change
- External Factors:
- Rise of China and Military Assertion: China’s increasing assertiveness, particularly in territorial disputes with Japan, has raised concerns and prompted a reassessment of Japan’s security posture.
- Deepening Military Bonds Between Beijing and Moscow: The strengthening military cooperation between China and Russia, particularly in Northeast Asia, has created new security challenges for Japan.
- Growing Military Capabilities of North Korea: North Korea’s advancements in military capabilities, including nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, have heightened security anxieties in the region.
- Uncertainty from the Trump Administration: Concerns over the Trump Administration’s unpredictable foreign policy and the possibility of US withdrawal of security protection for Japan and other Asian allies have prompted Japan to reconsider its security strategy.
- Internal Factors:
- Conservative Influence in Tokyo: Conservatives in Japan, advocating for a more proactive security role, have gained strength amid the changing geopolitical landscape.
- Desire to Become a ‘Normal Power’: There’s a growing sentiment among conservatives that Japan has fulfilled its obligations as a responsible global actor and should now assert its sovereignty and contribute more significantly to regional security.
Japan – As geopolitical power
- Increase in Defense Expenditure: Japan has abandoned its historical cap on defense spending, with expenditures reaching 1% of GDP for the first time in six decades in 2020 and rising to 1% in 2022.
- The current government under Kishida has committed to doubling annual defense spending to approximately 10 trillion yen ($68 billion) by 2027, positioning Japan as the world’s third-largest military spender after the US and China.
- Development of Counter-Strike Capability: Japan is acquiring and expanding its own counter-strike capability, notably through the procurement of Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US, capable of reaching deep into China and North Korea.
- This shift represents a departure from relying solely on the US for defense and underscores Japan’s efforts to enhance its deterrence capabilities.
- Easing of Restrictions on Weapon Exports: Japan’s cabinet has relaxed self-imposed bans on exports of lethal weapons to friendly nations, enabling Japan to leverage its advanced manufacturing and technological capabilities to support allies.
- This includes the approval of Japanese-made Patriot missile shipments to the US and leadership in initiatives like the Global Combat Air Programme for the development of next-generation stealth fighters.
- Enhanced Military Cooperation with the US: Japan and the US are revising their command-and-control framework to significantly integrate defense forces, with plans to establish a joint operations command in Japan.
- This move aims to streamline coordination and enhance interoperability between the two nations’ defense capabilities, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.
Changes in Japan’s diplomatic posture
- Efforts to Resolve Disputes with South Korea: Japan has taken steps to address historical disputes stemming from its occupation of the Korean peninsula from 1910 to 1945.
- Reconciliation with South Korea has facilitated greater regional security coordination and contributed to the evolution of a regional security network, where US allies collaborate more closely with each other.
- Support for Ukraine: Japan has emerged as one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters in its conflict with Russia, offering significant aid for reconstruction and supplying weapons.
- Japan’s vocal advocacy for defending Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty, even in the face of opposition, highlights its commitment to upholding international norms and principles.
- Engagement in US Domestic Debate on Ukraine: Prime Minister Kishida’s address to the US Congress included a pointed message regarding support for Ukraine, indicating Japan’s willingness to engage in the US domestic discourse on the issue.
- Kishida’s statement underscored Japan’s alignment with Ukraine and its readiness to influence US policymakers, particularly in encouraging Republicans to reconsider their opposition to providing more military assistance to Kyiv.
Implications of this ‘new’ Japan
- Shift in Regional Security Calculus: Japan’s newfound assertiveness will likely reshape the regional security landscape, influencing the balance of power and strategic calculations among neighboring countries.
- The presence of a more proactive Japan could potentially introduce new dynamics and complexities to regional geopolitics, particularly in East Asia.
- Concerns over Policy Sustainability: There are concerns regarding the sustainability of Japan’s new policies, particularly given potential domestic political dynamics and shifts in leadership.
- The decline in political stature of leaders like Kishida at home raises questions about the continuity of current initiatives and whether subsequent administrations will maintain the same level of engagement and assertiveness.
- Insurance against US Isolationism: Japan’s efforts to bolster its military capabilities and assert its geopolitical influence may also be driven by concerns over potential shifts in US foreign policy, such as a return to isolationism under a future administration led by figures like Donald Trump.
- Tokyo’s desire to hedge against such uncertainties in US policy could serve as a driving force behind Japan’s continued pursuit of a more independent and assertive foreign and security posture.
India reacted to change in Japanese policy
- Historical Relations: India has a historical connection with Japan, with figures like Subhas Chandra Bose seeking support from Imperial Japan during India’s struggle for independence from British colonial rule.
- Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru advocated for both China and Japan to play significant roles in shaping post-war Asia, reflecting India’s historical perspective on Japan’s role in the region.
- Bilateral Relationship:
- Over the past two decades, India-Japan relations have developed a strong political dimension, with mutual cooperation in various fields.
- However, military cooperation between India and Japan has not reached its full potential, suggesting opportunities for further collaboration, particularly in the realm of military-industrial cooperation.
- Strategic Perspective:
- India views a politically resolute and militarily strong Japan as a positive development that contributes to stability and equilibrium in Asia.
- Japan’s emergence as a major regional power aligns with India’s objective of promoting a multipolar Asia within a multipolar world order.
Mains question
Discuss the implications of Japan’s evolving foreign and defense policies on regional security dynamics in Asia. Evaluate India’s response and its strategic implications for regional stability and India’s broader foreign policy objectives. (Word limit: 250)
