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Harnessing India’s Demographic Dividend Crisis

Syllabus:

GS 1:

Population and associated issues

Why in the News?

India is at the peak of its demographic advantage with 67.3% of its population in the working age group (15-59 years). However, poor education, health, and nutrition threaten to derail this advantage, raising concerns about a future crisis with a skill-deficient, ageing population.

India’s Demographic Dividend: A Double-Edged Sword

• Demographic opportunity: By 2030, 9% of India’s population will be in the working age group, with a median age of 28.4 years and a dependency ratio of 31.2%. This could make India the world’s largest workforce, a potential driver of global economic growth.
• Skill and productivity gap: High productivity, essential for wealth creation and India’s $7 trillion GDP target, requires education, cognitive skills, and health. However, gaps in nutrition and schooling hinder the ability to meet contemporary job market requirements.
• Inadequate education levels: NFHS-5 highlights that only 41% of women and 2% of men in the 15-49 age group have 10+ years of schooling, leading to low employability. Skilling programs fail to bridge this gap effectively.
• Health deficiencies: Alarmingly, 57% of women and 25% of men are anaemic, while BMI below normal affects 18.7% of women and 16.2% of men. These factors negatively impact their physical and mental productivity.
• Adolescent workforce challenges: Among adolescents aged 15-19, only 34% of girls and 9% of boys complete 12 years of education, with high anaemia rates (59% girls, 31% boys). This generation will form India’s workforce for the next three decades.

The Growing Burden of an Ageing Population

• Post-2030 challenge: India’s ageing population will rise sharply, requiring healthcare infrastructure, pension systems, and policies to support an asset-less generation.
• Dependency concerns: With a shrinking workforce, an increased dependency ratio will slow economic growth and burden families, especially in the lower income
• Workforce shrinkage: A declining workforce without adequate skills will prevent India from realizing its economic potential, limiting its global competitiveness.
• Health expenditure: A population in poor health will significantly increase public healthcare costs, diverting resources from developmental priorities.
• Consumption limitations: Poor economic prospects will lead to low disposable incomes, limiting India’s ability to drive economic growth through domestic consumption.

Nutritional Crisis and Future Workforce

• Early foundation deficits: NFHS-5 data reveals that 5% of children below 5 are stunted, 32.1% are underweight, and 67.1% are anaemic. Only 11.3% of children aged 6-23 months receive a minimal adequate diet, severely impacting early brain and physical development.
• Impact on brain development: 90% of a child’s brain develops before the age of 5. Poor nutrition during this stage causes lifelong cognitive and physical deficits, affecting learning ability and future employability.
• Learning crisis: ASER (Rural) 2023 highlights that only 77% of 17-18-year-olds can read Class 2 textbooks, and just 35% can perform basic division. Flat learning trajectories in middle school grades indicate systemic educational failures.
• Long-term implications: The nutritional and educational crisis among children today will weaken India’s future demographic dividend, creating a workforce unable to capitalize on high-end economic opportunities.
• Health and morbidity burden: Routine under-nutrition and poor healthcare prevent children and adolescents from reaching their physical potential, worsening morbidity and reducing workforce productivity.

Challenges in Demographic Utilization

• Skill deficiency: Despite skilling initiatives, a lack of quality education leaves the youth unemployable for high-tech, innovative sectors, exacerbating educated unemployment.
• Ageing population burden: After 2030, India’s workforce will shrink while the ageing population A skill-less, asset-less, and unhealthy ageing population will strain healthcare systems and the economy.
• Rural-urban disparity: Rural populations face greater nutritional and educational deficiencies, limiting their access to job-market opportunities in urban economies.
• Economic inequality: The poorest sections experience 50% higher malnutrition rates, leading to intergenerational poverty and economic stagnation.
• Human capital flight: A lack of domestic opportunities forces skilled youth to migrate abroad, benefiting foreign economies at India’s expense.

Way Forward

• Strengthen nutrition programs: Focus on improving early childhood nutrition through schemes like POSHAN Abhiyaan to ensure children receive a minimum adequate diet for cognitive and physical development.
• Enhance education quality: Improve learning outcomes through curriculum reforms, teacher training, and strengthening foundational literacy and numeracy skills, especially in rural areas.
• Invest in healthcare: Increase investments in public healthcare infrastructure to tackle anaemia, undernutrition, and ensure adolescent health programs target vulnerable groups effectively.
• Skill development reform: Align skilling programs with emerging job market demands, focusing on technology, R&D, and high-end services to improve workforce employability.
• Policy redesign: Conduct a real-time demographic analysis to create a lifecycle approach addressing health, nutrition, education, and skilling at every stage of an individual’s growth.

Conclusion

India’s demographic advantage can only translate into economic dividends with investments in nutrition, education, and healthcare. Urgent action is required to address foundational deficits, or India risks facing a crisis of an unproductive, ageing population burdened with poor health and limited skills.

Mains Practice Question

India’s demographic advantage presents significant opportunities but also challenges. Discuss the importance of nutrition, education, and health in harnessing this dividend. Suggest policy measures to address the risks of a skill-less, ageing population.