Global Warming and Its Impact on Forecasting

Why in the news?

Global warming has intensified in 2023-2024, leading to unpredictable weather patterns. Current climate models are struggling to accurately predict events like monsoons, hurricanes, and El Niño due to accelerated warming effects.

Global Warning

Unexpected Trends in 2023-2024:

  • Meteorologists predicted the 2023 El Niño but were surprised by the extreme warming in 2023-2024.
  • Factors such as the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption and CO₂ emissions from wildfires intensified warming.
  • The 2023 monsoon was erratic, with some regions experiencing droughts while others faced floods and landslides.

Challenges in Weather Forecasting:

  • Global warming has led to unpredictable weather patterns, making forecasts more difficult.
  • Current models fail to reproduce monsoon trends over the last 50 years and are considered unreliable for the future.
  • Major climate events like El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are harder to predict due to the accelerated warming.

Global Warming and Temperature Rise:

  • Global warming is driven by greenhouse gases (GHGs) like CO2 and CH4.
  • GHGs trap heat, leading to higher global temperatures.
  • Earth’s average temperature has risen by 1°C since the late 19th century.
  • 2023-2024 witnessed unprecedented temperature increases, with global temperatures 61°C above pre-industrial levels.

India’s Warming:

  • India’s warming is below the global average.
  • Indian temperatures increased by7°C since 1900, while global land temperatures rose by 1.59°C.

Heatwaves and Regional Variability:

  • Heatwaves are becoming more severe in India, especially in northern regions.
    • Factors influencing warming: polar amplification, land vs. water differences, elevation, and urban heat islands (UHIs).
    • UHIs intensify heatwaves, raising health risks.

    Associated Article:

    https://universalinstitutions.com/the-global-way-out/