Geopolitical Conflict in the Arctic

Syllabus

GS 2: India and its neighbourhood

Why in the News?

Recently, rising geopolitical tensions in the Arctic have drawn global attention. Increasing military activities, resource competition, and territorial disputes among major powers highlight the urgent need for diplomatic interventions to ensure regional stability and cooperation.

Geopolitical Conflict in the Arctic

Rising Tensions in the Arctic

  • The Arctic, a region long regarded as a remote and frozen expanse, is rapidly transforming into a zone of strategic competition.
  • As climate change accelerates ice melting, new trade routes and vast untapped resources are becoming accessible.
  • However, this has also escalated territorial disputes and military posturing among global powers.
  • The absence of a comprehensive international treaty to regulate the Arctic, similar to the Antarctic Treaty, has further complicated the situation.

Strategic Importance of the Arctic

Resource-Rich Region

  • The Arctic is estimated to hold 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of its untapped natural gas resources, making it a highly coveted region.
  • Additionally, it contains rare earth elements, copper, phosphates, and lucrative fishing zones that could be exploited as the ice recedes.
  • Greenland has some of the world’s richest rare earth deposits, drawing global investment interest.

Emerging Trade Routes

  • The Northeast Passage along Russia’s Arctic coast could significantly reduce the maritime distance between East Asia and Europe by 8,000 km compared to the Suez Canal route.
  • China has expressed interest in the Polar Silk Road, but Russia controls key Arctic ports and has been cautious in granting full access.
  • The Northwest Passage through Canada’s Arctic Archipelago remains a contested route between Canada and the U.S.

Lack of a Comprehensive Legal Framework

  • Unlike the Antarctic, which is protected by an international treaty, the Arctic is governed primarily by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
  • UNCLOS allows nations to claim seabed territories beyond their 200-nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) if they can prove it is a natural extension of their continental shelf.
  • Canada, Denmark (via Greenland), and Russia have all submitted overlapping claims to the UN, leading to potential conflicts.

Key Players and Their Interests

Arctic Council and Its Role

  • Arctic Council comprises eight nations: Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the U.S.
  • It focuses on environmental protection, scientific research, and indigenous rights but lacks a binding security framework.
  • The Council has been strained since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with cooperation declining.

Russia’s Arctic Expansion

  • Russia maintains the largest fleet of Arctic icebreakers, including nuclear-powered ones, giving it a strategic advantage.
  • It has increased military infrastructure in the region, including bases from the Soviet era.
  • In 2007, Russia planted a flag on the Arctic seabed, symbolizing its territorial ambitions.
  • Russian officials have suggested that Norway’s Svalbard Island should fall under Russian control.

United States and Canada

  • The S. has shown renewed interest in Greenland, with former President Donald Trump controversially suggesting its acquisition from Denmark.
  • The Northwest Passage is a key point of contention: Canada claims it as internal waters, while the U.S. insists it is an international waterway.
  • The U.S. Pituffik military base in Greenland underscores Washington’s strategic interests.

NATO’s Growing Role

  • Sweden and Finland’s recent NATO membership has intensified military activities near the Russian border.
  • NATO has conducted large-scale exercises in Finland, strengthening its presence in the Arctic.
  • The GIUK (Greenland-Iceland-U.K.) gap is a critical choke point for NATO’s naval defences against potential Russian threats.

China’s Expanding Influence

  • Declared itself a “Near-Arctic State” in 2018, signalling its strategic interests.
  • Plans to build its first nuclear-powered icebreaker to enhance Arctic access.
  • Invested in Greenland’s rare earth mining projects, though some were halted due to environmental and political concerns.

Rising Tensions and Potential Conflicts

Overlapping Territorial Claims

  • Canada, Denmark, and Russia have submitted claims to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf.
  • With no clear resolution, these claims could lead to diplomatic or military confrontations.

Militarization of the Arctic

  • Russia has reactivated Soviet-era Arctic bases and increased patrols.
  • NATO has ramped up Arctic exercises, particularly after Sweden and Finland joined the alliance.
  • The K. has emphasized the GIUK gap as a key strategic point for NATO’s defence.

U.S.-Denmark-Greenland Dispute

  • Former U.S. President Trump’s interest in purchasing Greenland sparked tensions with Denmark.
  • Denmark has since increased security in Greenland, seeking European allies’ support.
  • Greenland’s indigenous population has mixed views, with some supporting greater autonomy and others preferring continued Danish governance.

Russia-China Nexus

  • Russia and China conducted joint naval exercises in the East China Sea in 2022, signalling strategic cooperation.
  • Beijing’s interest in Arctic shipping and resource extraction aligns with Moscow’s goals but could lead to future disagreements.
  • Russia remains cautious about granting China extensive access to its Arctic ports.

Environmental and Indigenous Concerns

  • Melting ice threatens indigenous communities that rely on traditional hunting and fishing practices.
  • Increased industrial activity could further disrupt fragile ecosystems and accelerate climate change.
  • Arctic states must balance economic opportunities with environmental preservation.

Future Scenarios

Increased International Cooperation

  • Nations may negotiate a new Arctic treaty similar to the Antarctic Treaty to prevent conflicts.
  • Strengthened Arctic Council mechanisms could help mediate disputes and promote environmental protection.

Continued Military Build-up

  • The Arctic could become a militarized zone if nations continue to expand their military presence.
  • Russia’s geopolitical actions, coupled with NATO’s response, could escalate tensions.

Economic Race for Resources

  • Countries may focus on Arctic oil, gas, and mineral extraction, leading to increased foreign investments.
  • China may push for greater Arctic access, potentially straining relations with Russia.

Climate Change as a Catalyst

  • The Arctic will continue to warm at twice the global average, accelerating ice loss.
  • Climate-driven geopolitical shifts could force nations to redefine their Arctic strategies.

Conclusion

Arctic’s transformation into a strategic hotspot has intensified global tensions. Resource competition and territorial disputes could trigger conflicts. Urgent diplomatic action is needed to ensure sustainable development, environmental protection, and long-term stability in the region.

Source

The Hindu

Mains Practice Question

Discuss the environmental and economic implications of Arctic resource exploration. How can global governance frameworks balance development with ecological preservation?