Declining Fertility and AI Regulation Demand Attention

Declining Fertility and AI Regulation Demand Attention

Why in the News ?

Sanjeev Sanyal, Member of the PM’s Economic Advisory Council, highlighted the threat of falling fertility rates impacting education infrastructure and proposed an India-specific AI regulation model that balances innovation and safety, diverging from US and EU frameworks.

Declining Fertility and AI Regulation Demand Attention

Falling Fertility Rate and Its Consequences:

  • India’s fertility rate has dropped to 9, below the replacement level of 2.1 (UNFPA data).
  • Many regions face shrinking classrooms, making schools unviable due to a shortage of children.
  • This demographic trend threatens resource distribution, long-term economic stability, and workforce replenishment.

Global AI Regulation Models: US vs EU

  • Two dominant global AI regulation models are emerging:
    • US Model: Focuses on self-regulation with state intervention only after problems arise—faster innovation, market adaptability.
    • EU Model: Emphasises preemptive regulation, bureaucratic forecasting of harms, and strict safeguards—potentially stifling innovation.
  • Sanyal criticises blanket global AI regulations, calling them counterproductive for developing countries.

India’s Balanced AI Regulation Approach

  • Sanyal proposes compartmentalising AI systems into strict silos (e.g., banking AI separate from satellite or grid AI).
  • Recommends a flexible framework with:
    • A specialist AI regulator,
    • A national algorithm registry,
    • A central repository to promote responsible innovation.
  • Advocates for an India-centric model ensuring safety without stifling growth.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) – Key Points

●      Definition: TFR is the average number of children a woman would have if she experiences current age-specific fertility rates throughout her reproductive years (15–49 years).

●      Indicator: It reflects the reproductive behaviour of a population and is a key demographic indicator.

●      Replacement Level: A TFR of 2.1 children per woman is considered the replacement rate—enough to replace the parents without increasing population.

●      Below 2.1: Indicates a declining population in the long term, unless offset by migration.

●      Use in Planning: Essential for population policy, health, and economic planning.