Bangladesh’s Political Turmoil: Elections, Economic Crisis, and Instability

Syllabus:

GS-2:

India and its Neighbourhood , Bilateral Groupings & Agreements

Focus:

Bangladesh is facing political unrest, economic decline, and rising Islamist influence following the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina’s government. The interim government under Muhammad Yunus has failed to curb violence, leading to public frustration and calls for early elections, while geopolitical tensions with India increase.

Bangladesh’s Political Turmoil: Elections, Economic Crisis, and Instability

Political Unrest and Delayed Elections:

Rise of Lawlessness and Violence

  • Bangladesh’s political landscape is experiencing instability, with lawlessness, mob violence, and economic turmoil.
  • Banned Islamist groups like Hizb ut Tahrir (HuT) and other radical organizations are openly defying security forces.
  • A student leader associated with interim government (IG) leader Muhammad Yunus has made controversial remarks about annexing parts of India.

Emergence of New Political Forces

  • Student leaders have formed a new political party, the Nagarik Citizens Party (NCP), advocating for a new constitution and political reforms.
  • The NCP’s vision of a “new liberation” appears unrealistic, given historical failures of similar political experiments.
  • Yunus’ past political attempt, Nagarik Shakti (2007), had also failed due to lack of public support.

Understanding the Significance of Bangladesh for India:

Strategic Trade and Connectivity

  • Acts as a crucial corridor linking India’s Northeast with the rest of the country.
  • Facilitates seamless trade and transit to international markets via ports like Chittagong and Mongla.
  • Strengthens India’s Act East Policy by providing connectivity to Southeast Asia.

Regional Security and Stability

  • A stable and friendly Bangladesh is vital for peace in South Asia.
  • Cooperation on counter-terrorism and border security helps prevent illegal activities, including smuggling and human trafficking.
  • Prevents radicalization and extremist influences from affecting India’s internal security.

Economic and Trade Relations

  • Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in South Asia with bilateral trade exceeding $18 billion.
  • India is the second-largest trade partner of Bangladesh in Asia after China.
  • Strengthening economic ties aligns with India’s goal of becoming a USD 5 trillion economy.

Regional Cooperation and Diplomacy

  • Bangladesh’s support is essential for the success of BIMSTEC and SAARC.
  • Enhances regional integration by fostering cooperation in trade, infrastructure, and development projects.

Economic Decline and Public Discontent:

Worsening Economic Conditions

  • Rising inflation, factory closures, and declining investments have led to mass unemployment and economic distress.
  • Foreign investors have withdrawn support, and credit volume has decreased, worsening the economic crisis.
  • Violence has paralyzed industries, leading to increased frustration among citizens.

Loss of Confidence in the Interim Government

  • Yunus’ government has failed to control violence, instead justifying radical actions and allowing Islamist groups to expand influence.
  • The public has lost patience, as promised reforms and stability have not materialized.
  • The failure to deliver economic benefits has made the government increasingly unpopular.

Military Intervention and Electoral Uncertainty:

Army’s Warning Against Violence

  • In an unprecedented move, the Bangladeshi army chief publicly warned that infighting and political violence threatened national sovereignty.
  • The army condemned the demolition of Mujib’s house, a historical landmark, highlighting government inaction in preventing such acts.
  • The army supports holding early elections, countering student leaders’ attempts to delay the process.

Unclear Roadmap for Elections

  • Yunus announced that elections will be held between December 2025 and March 2026, 17-20 months after Sheikh Hasina’s removal.
  • However, there is no definitive election schedule, and procrastination remains the government’s strategy.
  • The delay benefits radical groups, which are pushing for local elections before national ones to consolidate power.

Opposition, Islamist Influence, and Regional Implications:

Opposition to Political Repression

  • Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen expressed concern over Bangladesh’s turmoil and opposed any attempts to ban the Awami League (AL).
  • The student-led government’s plan to remove the AL was seen as an attempt to eliminate the strongest political force from elections.
  • Key political parties, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), have demanded early elections, challenging the government’s delays.

Radical Islamist Influence on Governance

  • Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and Hefazat-e-Islam oppose early elections, favoring a more Islamist political system.
  • The goal of radical groups is to establish a strict Islamic state, posing a threat to Bangladesh’s secular fabric.

Geopolitical Consequences and India’s Strategic Concerns:

Deterioration in India-Bangladesh Relations

  • India-Bangladesh ties have worsened due to anti-India rhetoric from the interim government.
  • The Yunus administration’s shift towards Pakistan and China has created strategic concerns for India.
  • Islamists in Bangladesh view Pakistan as a “lost brother,” influencing the government’s foreign policy realignment.

Rising Anti-India Sentiments in Bangladesh

  • India’s decision to reduce visa issuance for Bangladeshis has led to public outrage, which is being directed at the interim government.
  • Bangladeshis rely on India for medical treatment and tourism, increasing frustration with the government’s inability to maintain relations.

The Rohingya Refugee Crisis and External Pressures

  • Bangladesh faces growing financial pressure over hosting over a million Rohingya refugees.
  • The UN has reduced food aid, worsening the humanitarian crisis.
  • Despite support for India, Bangladesh has upgraded ties with Pakistan, while China actively engages with Islamist factions to counter India’s regional influence.

Challenges in Bangladesh’s Current Scenario:

Political Instability

  • The interim government under Muhammad Yunus lacks political legitimacy and public support.
  • Delayed elections have led to widespread protests and a growing demand for democratic restoration.
  • Rise of Islamist groups like Hizb ut-Tahrir threatens secular governance and stability.

Economic Crisis

  • Declining foreign investments and factory closures due to persistent violence.
  • Rising inflation and unemployment are fueling public dissatisfaction.
  • Reduced international aid for Rohingya refugees, worsening humanitarian conditions.

Security and Geopolitical Tensions

  • Tensions with India over past political rhetoric and visa restrictions.
  • Strengthening ties with Pakistan and China, impacting regional power balance.
  • Internal radicalization and Islamist influence pose security threats.

Way Forward:

Political Resolution

  • Holding free and fair elections at the earliest to restore democracy.
  • Ensuring inclusive governance with participation from all political factions.

Economic Stabilization

  • Restoring investor confidence through political stability and security measures.
  • Reviving trade ties with neighboring countries, especially India.

Strengthening Regional Cooperation

  • Enhancing diplomatic engagement with India to resolve bilateral tensions.
  • Containing Islamist extremism through strict law enforcement and deradicalization programs.

Conclusion:

  • Bangladesh’s political instability, delayed elections, and radical Islamist influence are threatening national sovereignty and economic stability.
  • The military’s growing role in politics signals a potential shift toward stabilizing governance through early elections.
  • India’s strategic concerns over radicalization, anti-India policies, and shifting alliances remain critical for regional security.
  • The Yunus-led interim government has failed to deliver on its promises, and public frustration is mounting.
  • The future of Bangladesh hinges on restoring political stability, holding fair elections, and preventing extremist influence in governance.

Source: IE

Mains Practice Question:

Discuss the political and economic challenges facing Bangladesh in the wake of its interim government. How do these developments impact regional stability and India’s strategic interests? Suggest measures India can adopt to safeguard its geopolitical and economic interests.