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AT THE HEART OF IRAN-ISRAEL

Syllabus:

GS-II:

Governance, Constitution, Polity, Social Justice and International Relations

Why in the news?

Recent escalations between Israel and Iran underscore the pivotal role of resolving Palestinian statehood for peace in West Asia.

source:medium

About The Iran-Israel Conflict:

• Recent escalations between Israel and Iran underscore the pivotal role of resolving the

Palestinian statehood issue for peace in the West Asia region.

• Both countries have engaged in direct military actions, signalling a departure from their historical reliance on proxy militias.

Understanding The Escalating Conflict Between Iran and Israel: Implications for Peace in West Asia:

Escalation of Conflict:

• In ecent weeks, Israel and Iran have escalated their long-standing shadow war, crossing previously established red lines.
• Israel’s bombing of an Iranian consular building in Damascus on April 1 resulted in the death of several high-ranking Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers.
• Iran retaliated on April 13 by launching a direct attack on Israel from its mainland, marking a departure from its previous reliance on proxy militias.
• This direct confrontation has brought the conflict into the open, raising concerns about the potential for a broader war in West Asia involving the United States and other Arab countries.

Military Actions and Retaliation:

• Both Israel and Iran have engaged in military actions, including missile and drone attacks on each other’s military bases.
• Israel’s advanced air force and anti-missile defence systems, with support from the U.S., Britain, France, and Jordan, successfully intercepted Iran’s projectiles.
• Despite Iran’s intention to inflict harm on Israel, its failure to do so represents a setback and a humiliation.
• The U.S. advised Israel to refrain from retaliation and instead perceive the successful interception as a victory. However, Israel’s government opted for a direct attack on Iran to re-establish deterrence.

Nuclear Weapons Program Concerns:

• Israel’s recent attack is likely to accelerate Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which is nearing breakout time.
• The immediate question is whether Iran will retaliate promptly or take a longer time to respond, with mixed messages emerging from Tehran.
• Regardless of the timing, the escalating conflict raises concerns about the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region and its global ramifications.

Motivations Behind High-Risk Actions:

• The leaders of Israel and Iran are driven by existential fears, radical politics, and arrogance, despite their ideological differences.
• Iran’s history, scarred by the eight-year war with Iraq, fuels its desire to project influence and defend itself through revolutionary ideology.
• Israel’s right-wing government seeks to eliminate the possibility of a future Palestinian state, leading to repression and expropriation of Palestinian land, thereby fueling radicalization and violence.

Role of Regional Dynamics:

• The conflict between Israel and Iran exacerbates tensions in the region and undermines efforts for peace and stability.
• Spoilers like Iran and the right-wing government in Israel take advantage of the instability to pursue their maximalist goals.
• Regional actors, including theS., Jordan, Egypt, and the Arab Gulf states, advocate for a two-state solution and urge Israel to commit to binding agreements for the creation of a Palestinian state.

Key Events Leading to Iran’s Attack on Israel:

• US Withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Deal (2018):

• Israel celebrates US withdrawal from Iran’s nuclear deal, denouncing the agreement and labelling Trump’s decision as historic.

• Assassination of Iran’s Army General (2020):
  • Israel welcomes the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, prompting Iran to retaliate with missile attacks on American bases in Iraq.
• Hamas Missile Attack (October 2023):
  • Hamas launches a missile attack on Israel, triggering Israeli airstrikes on Gaza in response to the Iran-backed terrorist group’s aggression.
• Israel Raids and Attacks Medical Facilities (November 2023):
  • Israel conducts raids and attacks medical facilities in Gaza, citing Hamas’ use of hospitals for military purposes.
• Houthi Group’s Red Sea Incident (November 2023):
  • Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen seize a cargo vessel in the Red Sea, initiating the ‘Red Sea Crisis’ and causing supply chain disruptions.
• Escalation of Israel’s Ground Offences (December 2023):
  • Israel intensifies ground offensives in Gaza, resulting in a rise in casualties and refugees, prompting international calls for a resolution.
• Airstrike on Iranian Embassy (Date unspecified):
  • Suspected Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus kills senior Revolutionary Guard officers, escalating tensions further.
• Iran’s Missile Attack on Israel (April 2024):
  • Iran launches a direct missile attack on Israel from its domestic territory, allegedly in response to a suspected Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in
• Israel’s Multi-layered Air Defence (April 2024):
  • Israel claims its air defence system intercepted 99% of incoming projectiles from Iran, with support from the US, UK, France, and Middle Eastern allies.

Impact of the Iran-Israel War World:

• Israeli retaliation likely due to perceived threat from Iran’s nuclear capability.
• Disruption of global oil supplies is possible, impacting India’s economy as a major importer.
• Geopolitical tensions may drive inflation and capital outflow, affecting bond prices and stock markets.
• Trade and travel disruptions expected, particularly in the aviation and shipping sectors.
• India faces a strategic dilemma balancing relationships with Iran and Israel for stability in the Middle East.

Possible Solutions to De-escalate the Iran – Israel Conflict:

1. Implement sustainable ceasefire in Gaza, open borders for humanitarian aid, and pursue UN-backed two-state solution.
2. Facilitate dialogue and diplomacy with international mediation and direct talks between Iran and Israel.
3. Address nuclear proliferation concerns through adherence to JCPOA and recognition of Iran’s peaceful nuclear energy rights.
4. Promote regional cooperation within the Arab League or Gulf Cooperation Council to address shared security concerns.
5. Establish comprehensive Middle East security architecture, addressing historical grievances and promoting normalisation of diplomatic relations.

Conclusion:

• The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran highlights the urgent need to address the issue of Palestine’s statehood for achieving peace and stability in West Asia.
• Without progress on this front, the region faces continued instability and the risk of broader wars with dire consequences for all involved parties.
• International community must advocate for non-violence, prioritise diplomacy, and adopt responsible policies to prevent instability and address the Middle East crisis.

Source: Indian Express

Mains Practice Question:

1.  “Discuss the implications of the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel on peace and stability in West Asia, with a focus on the role of unresolved issues related to Palestine’s statehood. Evaluate potential strategies for de-escalation and the importance of international cooperation in addressing the crisis.”

2.  Discuss the concept of India’s demographic dividend as outlined in the article, highlighting its potential benefits and challenges. Evaluate how the clash of aspirations between entrepreneurs and workers affects India’s economic growth and employment scenario. Suggest policy measures to harness the demographic dividend effectively while addressing the mismatch in aspirations.