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AFTER THE THREE KILLINGS

Syllabus:

GS 3:

• India and its Neighborhood- Relations.

• Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries on India’s interests, Indian Diaspora.

Why in the News?

The targeted killings of top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders by Israel have significantly heightened tensions in West Asia. These actions, following the devastating October 7 attacks, threaten to escalate into an all-out war, prompting global concern and diplomatic efforts to prevent a broader regional conflict.

Source: Indepedent

What is the Issue in focus?

• Escalating Tensions: The targeted killings of top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders have heightened the risk of all-out war in West Asia, marking a significant escalation since the October 7 attacks on Israel.
• Hamas Attack: On October 7, 2023, Hamas killed around 1,200 Israelis and took 250 hostages, prompting Israel’s aggressive air strikes and ground operations in Gaza, resulting in over 40,000 deaths.
• Key Deaths: The killings of Fuad Shukr, Ismail Haniyeh, and Mohammed Deif, all high-ranking leaders in Hamas and Hezbollah, have become pivotal, overshadowing even the vast casualties in Gaza.
• Fuad Shukr: An Israeli airstrike in Beirut on July 30 killed Fuad Shukr, a top Hezbollah commander, who was allegedly behind a rocket attack on Israeli-controlled Golan Heights that killed 12 young people.
• Ismail Haniyeh: On July 31, Ismail Haniyeh, the political bureau head of Hamas, was killed in Tehran during the inauguration of Iran’s new reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian.
• Mohammed Deif: Mohammed Deif, the mastermind behind the October 7 Hamas attacks, was reportedly killed in an Israeli strike in Gaza on July 13, marking a significant blow to Hamas.

About Israeli Intent

• Revenge: These targeted killings represent a significant victory for Israel, which had vowed revenge for the October 7 attacks, aiming to neutralize Hamas and rescue hostages through its Swords of Iron military offensive.
• Message to Hamas: By eliminating Haniyeh and Deif, Israel sends a strong message to Hamas’ remaining leaders, demonstrating its capability to target and decapitate the group at will.
• Mossad’s Redemption: The successful strikes help restore the reputation of Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, after the perceived failures during the October 7 attacks.
• Strategic Targeting: The high-profile killings are seen as a strategic move to weaken Hamas and signal Israel’s intent and capacity to eliminate key militant leaders.
• Military Objectives: Israel aims to destroy Hamas’ infrastructure and leadership, with these assassinations being a crucial step towards achieving its broader military and political goals.
• Political Signal: The strikes also serve as a political signal to both allies and adversaries, reinforcing Israel’s determination to secure its interests and protect its citizens.

Message for Iran

• Red Lines: By targeting leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas, groups supported by Iran, Israel has effectively redrawn the conflict’s red lines in West Asia, escalating the potential for regional warfare.
• Iranian Retaliation: Previous attacks on Iranian military officials in Syria and the recent targeted killing of Haniyeh in Tehran expose vulnerabilities in Iran’s security and intelligence apparatus.
• Strategic Strikes: The highly targeted assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran demonstrates Israel’s capability to strike within Iran, signaling a significant breach of Iranian security.
• Exposing Vulnerabilities: The killings highlight Iran’s security weaknesses, much like the October 7 attacks exposed Israel’s vulnerabilities, intensifying the regional power struggle.
• Diplomatic Message: By executing the strike in Tehran, Israel sends a clear message about its ability to bypass Iran’s security umbrella, challenging Iranian dominance in the region.
• Impact on Diplomacy: The assassination during a diplomatic event underscores the severe strain on Iran’s international relations and its standing among regional allies and adversaries.

Options Before Tehran

• Target Israeli Soil: Iran could consider retaliating with direct attacks on Israeli soil, similar to the aerial strikes in April, risking escalation into a broader conflict.
• Axis of Resistance: Iran might coordinate with its allies in the ‘Axis of Resistance’—Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis—to launch coordinated attacks against Israeli targets.
• Third-Country Targets: Tehran could target Israeli officials or interests in third countries, biding its time for strategic advantage and minimizing immediate backlash.
• Retaliatory Scenarios: Each of these retaliatory scenarios carries significant risks, potentially drawing Iran into a larger regional conflict with far-reaching consequences.
• Strategic Calculations: Iran’s response will be carefully calculated to balance retaliation with the need to avoid a full-scale war that could destabilize the entire region.
• Diplomatic Maneuvering: Tehran’s diplomatic engagements and alliances will play a crucial role in shaping its response, as it seeks to navigate the complex regional power dynamics.

Impact on India: 

• Regional Concerns: The potential escalation of conflict in West Asia presents significant concerns for India, given its substantial economic and human interests in the region.
• Indian Nationals: About 9 million Indian nationals live and work in West Asia, and their safety would be at risk in the event of a broader regional conflict.
• Energy Security: India’s energy security is heavily dependent on West Asia, with two-thirds of its crude oil and natural gas imports coming from the region, making stability crucial.
• Diplomatic Challenges: India has previously faced diplomatic challenges from similar conflicts, such as the 2012 attack on an Israeli diplomat’s wife in New Delhi.
• Non-Intervention: New Delhi has refrained from making statements on the volatile situation, aiming to maintain neutrality and avoid being drawn into regional rivalries.
• De-Escalation Efforts: India supports regional efforts to de-escalate tensions, aligning with initiatives by countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman to stabilize the situation.

Immediate Diplomatic Challenge

• Hostages and Ceasefire: The assassinations have likely derailed ongoing efforts for a deal on hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza, prolonging the conflict and complicating diplomatic resolutions.
• Netanyahu’s Position: Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, facing domestic criticism, gains time from the prolonged conflict to address leadership challenges and consolidate support.
• Avoiding War: The immediate diplomatic challenge is to prevent the conflict from escalating into a full-scale regional war, which would have devastating consequences.
• Khamenei’s Response: Much depends on how Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Pezeshkian decide to respond to the recent provocations and killings.
• Diplomatic Pressure: International diplomatic pressure and negotiations will be critical in averting a broader war, requiring coordinated efforts from major global and regional powers.
• Focus on Peace: The priority remains on de-escalating the conflict, ensuring regional stability, and protecting the interests and safety of millions affected by the ongoing tensions.

Way forward: What India’s next step should be?

1. Enhance Diplomacy: Intensify diplomatic efforts to mediate and de-escalate tensions in West Asia, leveraging relationships with all key regional players to foster dialogue.
2. Protect Citizens: Prioritize the safety of the 9 million Indian nationals in West Asia by issuing timely travel advisories, establishing evacuation plans, and coordinating with host countries.
3. Energy Security: Secure alternative energy sources and increase strategic oil reserves to mitigate potential disruptions in crude oil and natural gas imports from the region.
4. Strengthen Intelligence: Bolster intelligence capabilities to monitor developments in West Asia, ensuring rapid response to any threats against Indian interests or nationals.
5. International Collaboration: Collaborate with global powers and regional stakeholders to support initiatives aimed at maintaining stability and preventing further escalation.
6. Humanitarian Aid: Provide humanitarian assistance to affected populations in Gaza, showcasing India’s commitment to peace and humanitarian values.
7. Economic Measures: Prepare for economic contingencies by stabilizing the rupee and securing essential commodities, anticipating market volatility due to regional conflicts.
8. Defense Preparedness: Enhance defense readiness to protect Indian diplomats and interests abroad, ensuring swift action against any threats stemming from the conflict.

Conclusion

The targeted assassinations have intensified the already volatile situation in West Asia, posing significant risks for regional stability and international peace. India’s strategic response must balance diplomatic mediation, citizen safety, and energy security to navigate the complexities of this escalating conflict.

Source:Indian Express

Mains Practice Question:

Discuss the implications of the recent targeted killings of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders by Israel on regional stability in West Asia. How should India navigate its foreign policy in light of these developments?

Associated Article:

https://universalinstitutions.com/on-reservations-and-the-obc-creamy-layer/