• UGI USER
  • Jun 15, 2024
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ABRUPTLY ENDING FOSSIL FUELS WILL IMPACT LIVES BADLY

Syllabus:

GS-3:

Renewable Energy, Environmental pollution and degradation, Issues Related to development.

Focus:

  • The debate on abruptly ending fossil fuels has gained prominence due to increasing climate change impacts and the push for rapid carbon emission reductions.
  • Discussions highlight the potential economic and social consequences, emphasizing the need for a balanced and sustainable transition to renewable energy.
source:wikipedia

Understanding Misconceptions about Abrupt Fossil Fuel Termination:

  • Flawed Assertions: The common narrative that climate change necessitates an immediate end to fossil fuels is oversimplified and misleading.
  • Political Convenience: Politicians favoring swift carbon cuts often use this narrative to sidestep the significant costs and downsides associated with abrupt climate policies.
  • Climate Science vs. Climate Policy: There is a critical difference between the scientific understanding of climate impacts and the economic and social realities of implementing climate policy.
  • Economic Costs Ignored: The real economic and social costs of ending fossil fuel use abruptly are often overlooked by climate activists and politicians.
  • Policy Must be Democratic: Effective climate policy should result from a balanced consideration of both the benefits of emission reductions and their costs, guided by climate economics.
Understanding Fossil Fuels:

  • Unabated Fossil Fuels: Refers to burning coal, oil, and natural gas without any efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
  • GHG Emissions: Significant release of carbon dioxide and other pollutants into the atmosphere.
  • Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): Technology capturing emissions and storing underground.
  • COP28 Agreement: Calls for reducing unabated coal power to mitigate climate impacts.
  • IPCC Perspective: Emphasizes reducing emissions from unabated fossil fuels to combat climate change.

About Renewable Energy:

  • Renewable Energy: Energy from natural processes, continually replenished.
  • Examples: Solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass.
  • Global Impact: Reduces pollution, enhances economic benefits, improves energy security.
  • Investment: Significant investments in biofuels, solar, wind, and hydro sectors globally.

Types of Renewable Energy:

  • Solar Energy: Captures sunlight using photovoltaics or concentrated solar power (CSP) for electricity and heating.
  • Wind Energy: Uses wind turbines to generate electricity from natural airflow on land or offshore.
  • Hydroelectricity: Generates power from flowing water through dams, reservoirs, tidal, and wave sources.
  • Geothermal Energy: Extracts heat stored in the earth from hot springs or volcanic activity.
  • Biomass Energy: Converts organic materials into biofuels like ethanol or uses combustion for direct heat generation.

What is Carbon Capture and Storage(CCS)?

  • CCS : Captures CO2 from industrial processes to prevent atmospheric release.
  • Storage Objective: Stores CO2 underground indefinitely.
  • Bridge Technology: Facilitates fossil fuel use until low-carbon alternatives are feasible.
  • Operations: Includes capture at source, transport to storage, and injection into subsurface for permanent containment.
  • Capture Methods: Utilizes precombustion chemical conversion or post-combustion adsorption from flue gas.

Key Initiatives towards climate change:

  • EV30@30 Campaign: India supports the global initiative aiming for 30% new vehicle sales to be electric by 2030.
  • Panchamrit at COP26: India advocates five key elements for climate action at UNFCCC COP26.
  • National Green Hydrogen Mission: Aims to promote commercial production and export of green hydrogen.
  • Global Biofuel Alliance: Launched under India’s G20 presidency to enhance global biofuel trade.
  • PM-KUSUM: Enables installation of off-grid solar pumps in rural areas and promotes solar power generation by farmers.

What is the Paris Agreement?

  • Objective: Reduce global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to limit global temperature rise well below 2°C, aiming for 1.5°C.
  • Cycle: Operates on a five-year cycle for countries to submit updated climate action plans (NDCs).
  • Implementation: Aims to mobilize financing for climate mitigation, resilience, and adaptation in developing countries.

About Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:

  • Establishment: IPCC formed in 1988 by  World Meteorological Organization(WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP) to assess climate science.
  • Objective: Assess scientific, technical, and socio-economic aspects of climate change.
  • Structure: Comprises Working Group I (climate science), II (impacts/adaptation), and III (mitigation), whose reports inform global climate negotiations.

About  Pradhan Mantri Suryodaya Yojana:

  • Initiative: Pradhan Mantri Suryodaya Yojana aims to install rooftop solar systems in one crore households nationwide.
  • Benefits: Reduces grid electricity consumption, saves costs, allows surplus power export to the grid, and offers monetary benefits for exported power.
  • Objective: Part of the larger Rooftop Solar Programme to achieve 40 GW capacity by 2026.

About Panchamrit Initiatives:

  • India articulated five key climate action elements (Panchamrit) at COP26, including 500GW non-fossil energy by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2070.
  • Emphasized equitable climate finance and technology transfer for developing countries.
  • Advocated for lifestyle changes to combat climate change, promoting mindful consumption over destructive practices.
  • Stressed equity and differentiated responsibilities among nations for global carbon budget allocation.
  • Urged developed countries to accelerate emission reductions to achieve net zero earlier, supporting climate justice and global climate goals.

Historical Benefits of Fossil Fuels:

  • Dramatic Improvements: The past century has seen significant improvements in global living standards, largely due to the increased availability of energy from fossil fuels.
  • Extended Life Spans: Life expectancy has more than doubled, correlating with increased energy access.
  • Economic Growth: The use of fossil fuels has been a major driver of economic growth, with global incomes increasing ten-fold.
  • Reduction in Climate-related Deaths: Despite climate change, deaths from extreme weather events have dramatically declined by over 97% in the past century.
  • Resilience through Wealth: A wealthier world, enabled by fossil fuels, is more resilient and better equipped to handle extreme weather.

The Costs of Abrupt Transition:

  • Dependency on Fossil Fuels: Currently, almost 80% of the world’s energy comes from fossil fuels. Abruptly ending this would be catastrophic.
  • Food Production: Half of the world’s population relies on food grown with synthetic fertilizers produced using natural gas. Eliminating fossil fuels would threaten global food security.
  • Heating and Infrastructure: Billions depend on fossil fuels for heating, steel, cement, plastics, and transportation.
  • Massive Death Toll: A sudden end to fossil fuels could lead to the deaths of 6 billion people within a year due to these dependencies.
  • Overlooked by Climate Science: These potential downsides are not adequately considered in the current climate science focus on emissions and models.

The Need for a Gradual Transition:

  • Proposed Timelines: Many politicians suggest a phased end to fossil fuels by 2060 to mitigate immediate catastrophic impacts.
  • Economic Feasibility: Even with a slower transition, the costs are staggering, with estimates reaching $27 trillion annually, or one-quarter of global GDP.
  • Limited Benefits: The anticipated benefits of reaching net-zero emissions are a small fraction of the costs, making such policies economically prohibitive.
  • Comparison with Traffic Policies: Drastic measures, like reducing speed limits to eliminate traffic deaths, are analogous to abrupt fossil fuel cuts—they would save lives but cripple economies.
  • Realistic Policy Making: Sensible policies should balance the need to reduce emissions with maintaining economic stability and growth.

Strategies for Sustainable Transition:

  • Short-term Adaptation: Focus on building resilience against climate impacts through adaptation measures in the short term.
  • Investment in R&D: Long-term investments in research and development of renewable energy technologies are crucial.
  • Innovation and Cost Reduction: Driving down the cost of reliable green energy below that of fossil fuels is essential for a sustainable transition.
  • Gradual Shift: Ensure a gradual shift to low-carbon alternatives to avoid severe economic and social disruptions.
  • Holistic Approach: Addressing climate change requires integrating climate science with economic realities and practical policy solutions to avoid an abrupt and harmful end to fossil fuel use.

Challenges:

  • Economic Disruption: Abruptly ending fossil fuel use could cause severe economic disruptions, leading to job losses and economic instability.
  • Energy Dependency: The world heavily depends on fossil fuels for energy, heating, and industrial processes, making a rapid transition difficult.
  • Food Security: Eliminating fossil fuels quickly would disrupt the production of synthetic fertilizers, threatening global food security.
  • Infrastructure Transformation: Transitioning to renewable energy requires massive infrastructure changes, which are costly and time-consuming.
  • Technological Readiness: Current renewable energy technologies may not yet be sufficient to fully replace fossil fuels, leading to potential energy shortages.
  • Public Resistance: Sudden policy changes can lead to public resistance and political backlash, complicating the implementation of climate strategies.

Way Forward:

  • Gradual Transition: Implement a phased approach to reduce fossil fuel dependency, ensuring economic stability and minimal disruption.
  • Invest in R&D: Prioritize investment in research and development to advance renewable energy technologies and make them more affordable and reliable.
  • Enhance Resilience: Focus on building resilience to climate impacts through adaptation measures and strengthening infrastructure.
  • Policy Integration: Develop integrated policies that balance climate goals with economic growth and social stability.
  • Public Engagement: Engage with the public to build support for climate policies and ensure a smooth transition to sustainable energy sources.
  • Global Cooperation: Foster international cooperation to share technology, resources, and strategies for an effective global response to climate change.

Conclusion:

Addressing climate change requires a nuanced approach that balances emission reductions with economic stability and resilience. A phased transition, investment in renewable energy technologies, and global cooperation are essential to mitigate climate impacts without causing severe disruptions to economies and livelihoods.

Source:https://m.economictimes.com/opinion/et-commentary/turn-the-tap-off-slowly-abruptly-ending-fossil-fuels-will-impact-lives-badly-heres-what-to-do-instead/articleshow/111004955.cms#:~:text=If%20we%20quickly%20ended%20our,to%20feed%20four%20billion%20people.

Mains Practice Question:

Discuss the potential economic and social challenges of abruptly ending fossil fuel use and suggest a balanced approach to transitioning towards renewable energy. How can policy integration and public engagement play a role in ensuring a smooth transition?

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