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A Year of War in West Asia
Relevance: GS 2 – Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests
Why in the news?
- Anniversary of October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel – One year since the Hamas terrorist assault on Israel, marking a significant date in the ongoing West Asia conflict.
- Over 41,000 deaths from Israel’s ground and aerial operations in Gaza and Lebanon, with large-scale destruction, especially in Gaza.
- Hamas is believed to still hold 97 hostages, out of the 251 taken initially.
- Israel has expanded its retaliation to include Hezbollah, further intensifying the conflict.
- Risk of all-out war in West Asia: The conflict threatens to escalate into a broader regional war involving multiple players.
ISRAEL
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vow: Netanyahu, whose popularity was low before the October 2023 attacks, pledged to eliminate Hamas. Since then, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) operations in Gaza have caused a disproportionately high death toll.
Expansion of operations against Iran-backed groups:
- Israel has targeted other Iran-backed “axis of resistance” groups, especially Hezbollah (Lebanon) and Houthis (Yemen).
- Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged rocket and missile attacks since late 2023.
- Houthi attacks disrupted international shipping in the Red Sea, causing global economic impacts.
Israel’s military retaliation:
- Israel has conducted airstrikes in Syria and Yemen, and launched fresh operations in Lebanon.
- Ground operations in Gaza continue despite calls for a ceasefire from the UN Security Council and restraint advice from the US.
- Israel responded to an Iranian missile and drone attack in April, and vowed retaliation for further attacks on October 1, 2024.
International opinion on Palestine:
- Support for Palestinian statehood has increased, backed by an International Court of Justice opinion deeming Israel’s occupation illegal.
- Israel has moved further away from the two-state solution, with the Israeli Knesset passing a resolution in July rejecting Palestinian sovereignty.
Domestic political consolidation:
- Israeli political opinion has hardened against Palestine, reflected in Netanyahu’s alignment with the far-right coalition that sustains his government.
- Extremist figures like Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir advocate harsh measures against Palestinians, including blocking humanitarian aid to Gaza.
Hostage situation and political criticism:
- Netanyahu faced protests over the failure to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas.
- Initial criticism of Israel’s security failure during the October 7, 2023, attacks has subsided but may resurface in the future.
- Netanyahu’s political position: Though Netanyahu’s standing has improved due to recent military successes, his reliance on the far-right has cemented his hold on power. This broader shift in Israeli politics goes beyond Netanyahu himself.
ARAB STATES
Major Arab powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue their focus on geopolitical and economic diversification, a process that began before October 2023 and persists despite Israel’s expanding war.
Palestinian sovereignty as a priority:
- The war has brought the issue of Palestinian sovereignty to the forefront. Many Arab states see resolving this as essential for long-term peace.
- Rather than halting normalization with Israel, these states seem to use the process to push for a solution to the Palestine question.
Sustenance of the Abraham Accords:
- The 2020 Abraham Accords between Israel and some Arab states remain intact despite the high death toll in Gaza.
- Even Saudi Arabia, once firmly opposed to Israel, now frames normalization as a means to advance the two-state solution.
Economic and regional stability:
- Arab nations are keen on economic development, which requires peace with both Israel and Iran.
- The détente between Riyadh and Tehran has persisted, similar to the survival of the Abraham Accords.
Avoiding long-term conflict:
- Arab states are wary of another prolonged conflict. Saudi Arabia’s call for US restraint in Yemen and its reluctance to join the naval coalition against the Houthis highlight this.
- Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE had started disengaging from Yemen before the war shifted the Houthis’ priorities.
Public and political reactions:
- There is rising demand from the Arab public for Israel to stop its assault on Gaza.
- Middle Eastern powers are either mediating or confronting Israel.
- Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan has intensified anti-Israel rhetoric.
- Qatar has tried to mediate between Israel and Hamas, with limited success.
Bordering states and refugee concerns:
- Egypt and Jordan strongly oppose any refugee influx from Gaza and the West Bank, respectively.
- Egypt has been sparring with Israel over the push of Gazans toward the southern border and opposes Israeli control over the Philadelphi Corridor, which straddles the Gaza-Egypt border.
US & THE WEST
US-Israel relationship:
- The US has an unwavering commitment to Israel, supporting its defence while providing humanitarian aid to Gaza.
- Despite frustrations with Prime Minister Netanyahu, especially over ceasefire issues, the US continues to back Israel even when it crosses perceived red lines.
Diplomatic efforts:
- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has made multiple visits to the Middle East in the past year, but efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza have been unsuccessful.
- The US also mediated between Iran and Israel in April 2024, preventing further escalation at that time.
US political dynamics:
- The upcoming US presidential election affects the country’s stance on the conflict. Netanyahu is likely waiting to see if the next administration under Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will either empower or restrain Israel’s military actions.
European reaction:
- Europe has seen public outcry over the war. The European Union’s foreign policy chief even suggested sanctions against Israel.
- Major European states, however, have aligned with the US position—advocating for controlled escalation and emphasizing Israel’s right to self-defence.
- Concerns about the war in Ukraine also play a role in Europe’s approach to Middle Eastern events.
- For example, after French President Emmanuel Macron implicitly suggested an arms embargo on Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly rebuked him
- This prompted the Élysée Palace to reaffirm France’s “steadfast” friendship with Israel, highlighting the diplomatic pressures at play in maintaining strong ties while navigating tensions over the conflict.
Russia’s involvement:
- Russia’s focus on the Ukraine conflict limits its ability to influence events in the Middle East, despite some interest, such as hosting Hamas and Iranian leaders in 2023.
China’s role:
- China has made diplomatic gains in the region, including brokering a Fatah-Hamas reconciliation in July 2024.
- China criticizes Israel but avoids deep military involvement, continuing its long-standing approach of focusing on economic and strategic relations in the Gulf.
VIEW FROM NEW DELHI
Diplomatic outreach:
- Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed concern and solidarity with Israel during phone calls with Prime Minister Netanyahu in both October 2023 and 2024.
- Modi also spoke to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, reiterating India’s support for the two-state solution.
Balanced approach to the conflict:
- While India has deepened its relationship with Israel, New Delhi has not fully aligned with Israel’s stance on Gaza or Lebanon.
- India distinguishes terrorism, which it condemns, from the broader political issue of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This allows India to show support for Israel after the October 7 attacks, while still advocating for Palestinian sovereignty.
Commitment to the two-state solution:
- External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has emphasized that lasting peace is tied to the recognition of Palestine’s legitimate aspirations for sovereignty.
- India has consistently supported UNGA resolutions calling for Israel to withdraw from occupied territories, though it recently abstained from a resolution that imposed a 12-month deadline for withdrawal, preferring a negotiated settlement.
India’s regional strategy:
- Before the recent conflict, India was looking to play a leading role in regional connectivity through the planned India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor.
- The future of this initiative now depends on a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as how Arab states navigate the post-war scenario.
Long-term perspective on peace:
- India views Israeli recognition of a Palestinian state as a key step toward neutralizing Iran’s influence and stabilizing Arab-Israeli relations.
- However, Israel has shifted away from the two-state solution, focusing instead on expanding settlements in the West Bank, which remains a major point of international criticism.
Challenges to peace:
- If Israel continues its settlement expansion, the prospects for lasting peace in the Middle East are under threat, despite short-term stability in Arab-Israeli relations. India sees these actions as undermining the long-term stability of the region.
Associated articles
https://universalinstitutions.com/tag/iranisraelconflict/
https://universalinstitutions.com/indias-evolving-stance-on-gaza-israel-conflict/
Mains question
Discuss India’s diplomatic approach toward the Israel-Palestine conflict in light of its growing ties with Israel and commitment to the two-state solution. How does this stance align with regional geopolitical dynamics? (250 words)
