India-China Relations at 75: Strategy Over Sentiment

India-China Relations at 75: Strategy Over Sentiment

Syllabus:

GS-2:

India and its Neighbourhood, Important International Institutions , Groupings & Agreements Involving India and/or Affecting India’s Interests , International Treaties & Agreements , Effect of Policies & Politics of Countries on India’s Interests

Focus:

India and China mark 75 years of diplomatic ties, a significant milestone in their complex relationship. Amid rising tensions, strategic rivalry, and economic interdependence, India seeks to balance competition with cooperation, focusing on long-term regional stability and a strategic approach to managing challenges with China.

A Pivotal Moment in Bilateral Relations:

• As India and China commemorate 75 years of diplomatic relations, it marks not just a historical milestone but a critical juncture in Asian and global geopolitics.
• Once envisioned as a partnership of Asian solidarity, the relationship now reflects a complex mix of contested borders, strategic rivalry, and mistrust.
• Despite these challenges, there are significant opportunities for cooperation, economic interdependence, and shared responsibility for regional stability.

The “China Lens”: Strategic Challenges

China’s Influence on India’s Foreign Policy

• China has become the most influential external factor in shaping India’s foreign policy, affecting decisions on borders, trade, defense, and regional relations.
• Nearly all of India’s strategic decisions are filtered through the “China lens“, making it a structural challenge.
• India must balance deterrence with dialogue, sovereignty with economic interdependence, and competition with coexistence.

The Legacy of Historical Conflicts

• The 1962 India-China war remains a traumatic marker in bilateral history.
• The 2020 Galwan Valley clash reopened old wounds, forcing India to recalibrate its China policy.
• The Line of Actual Control (LAC) remains tense, militarized, and vulnerable to miscalculation, with over 60,000 troops stationed in Eastern Ladakh.
• While military vigilance is crucial, economic interdependence complicates matters, particularly given India’s trade imbalance with China, which reached nearly $100 billion in 2024-25.

Economic Interdependence vs. Military Tension

• Despite efforts to reduce dependence on China, India continues to rely heavily on Chinese components, especially in sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics.
• This creates a paradox: India seeks military deterrence at the border but remains entangled in economic dependencies.
• Complete decoupling from China is neither feasible nor desirable in the short term, leading to a policy of “competitive coexistence.”

Competitive Coexistence: India’s Evolving Strategy:

Balancing Competition and Engagement

• India seeks to compete with China in defense, infrastructure, and regional influence while engaging economically to manage mutual dependencies.
• Platforms like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) provide opportunities for India and China to engage as equals.
• India’s partnership with like-minded democracies in the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, the U.S.) aims to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific, ensuring that India retains agency in regional security.

Challenges in India’s Neighborhood

• China’s growing presence in South Asia, including investments in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port, Nepal’s Pokhara Airport, and the Maldives’ infrastructure, has challenged India’s traditional role as a regional anchor.
• While India has responded with development aid, defense cooperation, and first-responder effectiveness during crises, it must now shift from reactive to proactive diplomacy.
• India must strengthen its engagement with regional neighbors, focusing on both tangible and intangible forms of influence, to maintain its role as the region’s anchor.

Influence Through Narrative and Infrastructure

• Influence today is not only about physical infrastructure but also about narratives that shape perceptions.
• Bangladesh’s remarks about India’s northeast, though geographically accurate, were diplomatically charged, reinforcing China’s strategic framing.
• India must work on building stronger relationships with its neighbors, focusing on both hard and soft power, to maintain its role as the region’s anchor.

The America Factor: Navigating Strategic Autonomy:

The U.S.-China Rivalry and Its Impact on India

• The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency has escalated S.-China rivalry, leading to increased pressure on India to align with the U.S. in defense and Indo-Pacific security.
• However, India must remain cautious and prioritize strategic autonomy, balancing deeper ties with the S. against the need to manage its relationship with China.
• Prime Minister Modi’s remarks in March 2025 emphasized dialogue and competition, signaling that India aims to maintain an independent stance in its foreign policy, fostering strategic storytelling that appeals to both Beijing and Washington.

India’s Strategic Response to U.S. Pressure

• Modi’s approach is one of pragmatic diplomacy, not aimed at conciliating but ensuring India’s independent judgment.
• China’s positive response to Modi’s outreach is a rare moment of diplomatic alignment, suggesting both nations are testing waters for limited rapprochement.
• Key developments, such as resuming verification patrolling along the LAC and hydrological data-sharing on the Brahmaputra River, signal steps toward de-escalation.
• However, risks persist, especially with China’s planned dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra), raising concerns about ecological security and water weaponization.

The Framework for India’s China Policy:

Pillars of India’s China Policy

• India’s China policy must be anchored in four key pillars: military readiness, economic diversification, diplomatic engagement, and narrative control.
• India must deter Chinese aggression without provoking escalation, diversify trade to reduce dependency, and engage diplomatically to safeguard national interests.
• Strategic communication must be sharper, with a focus on executing regional projects quickly and adopting a long-term foreign policy mindset that looks beyond short-term headlines.

The Need for Guardrails: Military, Diplomatic, and Economic

• India and China must establish robust guardrails—military, diplomatic, and economic—to prevent friction from escalating into conflict.
• The concept of “competitive coexistence” suggests managing rivalry responsibly while cooperating on areas of mutual interest, such as regional stability.
• India and China need to build a regional security architecture, with both countries acting as custodians of stability, in a post-S.-led world order.

Strategic Considerations for the Future

• As India and China celebrate 75 years of ties, the focus must shift from sentimentality to strategy.
• India’s goal is to navigate the changing global order, define its place amidst shifting alliances, and confront its own capabilities and ambitions through this relationship.
• The China challenge is structural, but it also offers an opportunity for India to lead—by embracing strategic competition and constructive engagement.

Conclusion:

India’s approach to China must evolve from sentiment to strategy, balancing military readiness, economic diversification, and diplomatic engagement. The relationship remains pivotal in shaping regional and global geopolitics. By embracing competitive coexistence, India can safeguard its interests while fostering stability in an increasingly volatile global landscape.

Source: TH

Mains Practice Question:

Critically examine India’s evolving approach to China in the context of its economic dependence, military tensions, and regional competition. How can India manage its relationship with China while ensuring national security and regional stability? Discuss in light of current geopolitical dynamics.