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Ukraine War: Three Years Later, A Trump-Led Peace Deal?

Syllabus:

GS-2:

Bilateral Groupings & Agreements , Effect of Policies & Politics of Countries on India’s Interests , India and its Neighbourhood

Focus:

Three years into the Russia-Ukraine war, a possible resolution is emerging, with former U.S. President Donald Trump pushing for direct negotiations with Russia. Talks have begun in Riyadh without Ukraine’s participation, signaling a major geopolitical shift in conflict resolution and global power dynamics.

Background and Current Status of the War:

Russia’s Initial Invasion and Objectives

• Russia launched a “special military operation” in Ukraine in February 2022, aiming for a quick victory and a strategic reminder of its red lines to the West.
• The invasion failed to achieve a swift victory, leading to a prolonged war of attrition.
• Ukraine, with Western military and financial support, managed to stall Russia’s advances and reclaim some territory.

Three Years Later: No Clear Winners

• Ukraine is devastated: Heavy infrastructure damage, economic downturn, and human losses.
• Russia is weakened: Facing heavy military losses, economic sanctions, and diplomatic isolation.
• Europe is fragmented: Divisions over how to handle the war, energy crises, and increased military spending.
• The U.S. is frustrated: Growing war fatigue, financial strain, and shifting geopolitical priorities.
• Global economy affected: Rising food and energy prices due to disruptions in trade and supply chains.

Challenges in Achieving Peace:

Lack of Serious Peace Efforts

• Despite massive destruction, serious diplomatic efforts to end the war have been largely absent.
• European leaders failed to activate the Minsk Accords (2014-15), which could have provided a peace framework.
• Various peace initiatives by Switzerland, Turkey, China, and India were limited in ambition and impact.
• The West saw the war as an opportunity to weaken Russia, delaying effective negotiations.

Geopolitical Stalemate

• Russia holds significant Ukrainian territory and uses its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent against escalation.
• Ukraine is heavily dependent on Western military aid, making independent decision-making difficult.
• The U.S. remains key to any resolution, as peace efforts require American support alongside Russian cooperation.

The Role of the U.S. and Trump’s Intervention:

Trump’s Approach to the War

• Former U.S. President Donald Trump has taken a direct interest in ending the war and reshaping global geopolitics.
• Trump’s “America First” approach emphasizes economic deals over military interventions.
• Unlike previous administrations, he seeks direct negotiations with Russia rather than involving NATO or European allies.
• His preference for quick deals is evident in his past negotiations on Afghanistan and trade deals.

Shift in U.S. Policy Under Trump 2.0

• The new S. administration acknowledges NATO expansion as a key factor in provoking Russia.
• Washington signals willingness to compromise, including:
  • Ukraine not joining NATO (a major Russian demand).
  • Accepting Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
  • Negotiating Russia’s control over four eastern Ukrainian regions.
• In return, Russia may receive sanctions relief and Western acceptance of its influence in Ukraine.

Emerging Peace Framework and Its Implications:

Key Elements of a Possible Peace Deal

• A ceasefire agreement is likely the first step before formal negotiations.
• The U.S. and Russia will directly negotiate rather than involving Ukraine or European nations initially.
• Ukraine’s territorial integrity remains uncertain, as negotiations will determine how much land remains under Russian control.
• Security guarantees for Ukraine remain a complex issue, with Russia opposing any NATO-backed peacekeeping forces.

Peace Talks in Riyadh: A Strategic Move

• Peace discussions started on February 18, 2025, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
• Saudi Arabia was chosen over traditional European venues like Geneva, signaling a geopolitical shift in mediation efforts.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, but no Ukrainian representatives were present.
• A possible Trump-Putin summit in Riyadh may finalize the terms of peace.

Broader Geopolitical and Economic Impacts:

European Disarray and Diplomatic Fallout

• Europe faces a double crisis:
  • Russian aggression on one side.
  • American unpredictability on the other.
• European leaders are divided on how to respond, leading to emergency summits in Paris and Berlin.
• French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer plan to visit Washington to influence U.S. policy.

Ukraine’s Uncertain Future

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is under increasing pressure due to battlefield losses.
• Trump has mocked and sidelined Zelensky, calling him a “moderately successful comedian” with no real influence in peace talks.
• The U.S. demands financial repayment for its $350 billion aid to Ukraine, possibly through access to Ukraine’s strategic mineral reserves.

U.S.-Russia Relations and the China Factor

• Ending the war aligns with Trump’s broader strategy of countering China’s rise.
• Russia has grown closer to China, but a peace deal could weaken that alliance.
• Trump may attempt a Nixon-style diplomatic maneuver, using Russia as a counterweight to China.

Economic Relief and Stability

• Peace in Ukraine would stabilize:
  • Energy supplies (reducing oil and gas price volatility).
  • Global food markets (restoring grain exports from Ukraine and Russia).
  • Inflationary pressures (particularly in Europe and developing economies).
• Lifting sanctions on Russia could ease global trade tensions and allow a return to pre-war economic relations.

Conclusion: A Controversial but Pragmatic Peace?

• Trump’s strategy may bring an end to the war, but at the cost of significant territorial concessions to Russia.
• While this approach may stop the fighting, it may not ensure long-term stability.
• The absence of European and Ukrainian input raises concerns over the legitimacy and sustainability of the deal.
• The global order is shifting, with the U.S. recalibrating its foreign policy towards China, while Russia and Europe navigate a new geopolitical reality.
• Whether this resolution prevents future conflicts or creates another frozen war will depend on the long-term enforcement of the agreement and Russia’s future ambitions.

Source: IE

Mains Practice Question:

Discuss the geopolitical and economic implications of a U.S.-led peace initiative in the Russia-Ukraine war. How could this shift impact global power dynamics, Europe’s security, and U.S.-Russia-China relations? Suggest measures to ensure a just and sustainable peace agreement. (250 words)