MYANMAR'S ARMED CONFLICT AND REGIONAL DYNAMICS

Why in the News?

The Myanmar military’s 2021 coup has led to significant political upheaval, with resistance movements gaining strength against the military regime.
Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and groups like the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) have made considerable territorial gains, challenging the military’s control and highlighting the need for a new political framework based on federalism and democracy.

Source: Researchgate

The Military Coup and Its Aftermath

The 2021 coup by the Myanmar military removed civilian leaders like Aung San Suu Kyi, leading to persistent violent resistance.
The military’s indiscriminate use of force has eroded its legitimacy, resulting in the loss of control over large parts of the country to EAOs and PDFs.

Territorial Gains by EAOs

The Brotherhood Alliance, including the Arakan Army and other groups, has made significant territorial advances, capturing key towns and military posts.
The Arakan Army has gained control of large areas in the Rakhine province and strategic locations along the Bay of Bengal, impacting regional projects like China’s Belt and Road Initiative and India’s Kaladan project.

China’s Influence and Strategic Interests

China has engaged with both the Myanmar military and various EAOs, balancing its economic interests and security concerns.
Despite supporting ceasefires, China has also supplied military equipment to both the military and EAOs, maintaining leverage in Myanmar’s fragmented sovereignty.

India’s Role and Potential Contributions

India can offer its federalism expertise, financial frameworks, and peace agreements like the Mizoram Peace Accord to help stabilize Myanmar.
India’s successful infrastructure projects in conflict zones, like Afghanistan, suggest it can contribute significantly to regional peace and development in Myanmar.
India can facilitate dialogue among Myanmar’s stakeholders, drawing from its experience in conflict resolution and fostering democratic institutions.

Myanmar’s Geography

Location: Myanmar, situated in Southeast Asia, borders India, Bangladesh, China, Laos, and Thailand.
Topography: Characterized by diverse landscapes, including the rugged Shan Plateau in the east, the central dry zone, and the fertile delta regions in the south.
Rivers: Major rivers include the Irrawaddy, Salween, and Chindwin, which are crucial for transportation and agriculture.
Coastline: The western coast is along the Bay of Bengal, while the southern coast is along the Andaman Sea.

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