• UGI USER
  • Jul 20, 2024
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NAVIGATING THE GAZA CONFLICT: INDIA’S ROLE AND GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS

Syllabus:

GS 3:

  • India and its Neighborhood- Relations.
  • Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries on India’s interests.

Why in the News?

The Gaza conflict’s escalating violence and international responses, including criticisms of Israel’s tactics and internal US political debates, underscore its global significance. The potential impacts on Middle Eastern stability, Israel’s political landscape, and broader international relations make it a critical issue for global diplomacy and security.

Source: Abhipedia

Overview

  • Uncertain Conflict: The Gaza war’s resolution remains unclear as Israel’s aggressive tactics target Hamas. Ongoing violence and civilian casualties obstruct peace efforts.
  • Hamas’s Role: Hamas, controlling Gaza and funded by Iran and Qatar, plays a key role in the Palestinian movement, influencing Israeli responses.
  • Global Reaction: International support for Israel has waned due to harsh attacks and high civilian deaths, attracting criticism from the US, Europe, and others.
  • Netanyahu’s Challenges: Israeli PM Netanyahu faces legal and political hurdles. His avoidance of a ceasefire is driven by personal and political survival.
  • India’s Concern: Middle East instability impacts India’s regional security. India must diplomatically engage to support peace and safeguard its interests.
  • US Politics: While the US supports Israel, rising Gaza casualties have sparked domestic debates. Upcoming elections and geopolitical changes will shape future US policies..

Gaza War Dynamics

  • Unpredictable Path: The Gaza conflict is evolving, with Israel’s aggressive tactics causing extensive destruction and civilian suffering, complicating post-conflict planning.
  • Internal Disputes: Israeli leaders, including Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and Benny Gantz, are divided on war objectives and strategies, creating uncertainty about a ceasefire.
  • Hamas’s Role: Hamas, an Islamist group with both political and military arms, controls Gaza and benefits from international funding, impacting the ongoing conflict.
  • Strategic Timing: Hamas’s October 7 attack was influenced by a weakened Palestinian Authority and provocative Israeli right-wing actions, intensifying the conflict.
  • Global Sympathy: Initial international support for Israel has diminished due to excessive civilian casualties and perceived humanitarian law violations.
  • South African Action: South Africa’s legal action alleging genocide against Israel reflects global discontent and Israel’s declining international standing.

Effects on Global Relations

  • International Backlash: Israel’s heavy-handed tactics in Gaza have damaged its global reputation, with increasing recognition of Palestine and criticism from global powers.
  • Diplomatic Strain: Varied international responses to conflicts like Ukraine versus Gaza highlight disparities in global reactions, adding to Israel’s diplomatic challenges.
  • US and Europe: Support for Israel faces internal challenges in the US and Europe, with rising protests and divisions impacting diplomatic relations.
  • Global South Discontent: The Global South views Western responses to international conflicts as biased, affecting Israel’s diplomatic relations and global image.
  • Legal and Humanitarian Critiques: Accusations of genocide and humanitarian law violations have led to international legal and moral critiques, isolating Israel diplomatically.
  • Israel’s Diplomatic Isolation: Legal challenges and shifting global alliances have significantly diminished Israel’s diplomatic influence and support.

Impact on India

  • Regional Instability: Middle East instability, including conflicts between Israel and Iran, affects India’s regional security and economic interests, necessitating diplomatic engagement.
  • Strategic Interests: India must address its interests by contributing to peace efforts and maintaining open diplomatic channels with all involved parties in the Middle East.
  • Security Concerns: Increased regional conflict impacts India’s security, including potential disruptions to shipping routes and broader geopolitical stability affecting its interests.
  • Diplomatic Role: India’s role in promoting peace and stability in the Middle East involves balancing relationships with key stakeholders and advocating for conflict resolution.
  • Regional Impact: Middle East instability influences global oil markets and security dynamics, impacting India’s economic and strategic interests in the region.
  • Long-Term Engagement: India must adopt a proactive and sustained diplomatic approach to address ongoing conflicts and contribute to regional peace and stability.
Analyzing India-Middle East Relations

Foreign Policy Shift:

  • Strategic Alliance: India’s foreign policy has pivoted to enhance ties with the Gulf. Notable is the formation of I2U2 in October 2021, linking India with the US, Israel, and the UAE.
  • Balanced Approach: India maintains a nuanced stance, fostering strong relations with both Israel and Arab nations, defying previous constraints.
  • Solid Partnerships: Relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE have evolved from uneasy to robust strategic partnerships.
  • Diversified Diplomacy: India is actively balancing ties with both Western and Middle Eastern powers, adapting its diplomacy to regional realities.

Significance of India-Middle East Ties:

  • Counterterrorism: Strengthening ties helps counter terrorism and challenges Pakistan’s influence, addressing security concerns more effectively.
  • Energy Security: The Gulf is vital for India’s energy needs, being a major oil and gas supplier. This partnership ensures a steady energy supply and supports India’s economic growth.
  • Economic Growth: Enhanced economic cooperation opens avenues for trade, investment, and infrastructure development, benefiting Indian businesses.
  • Increased Investments: Investment from Gulf nations to India has surged, and ongoing FTA negotiations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) aim to boost this trend.
  • Remittances: Millions of Indians in the Gulf contribute significantly to India’s economy through remittances, enhancing welfare and employment opportunities.
  • Geostrategic Influence: The Gulf’s strategic location boosts India’s regional influence, engaging in key organizations like GCC, Arab League, and IORA.
  • Cultural Links: Historical and cultural ties foster people-to-people exchanges, promoting mutual understanding and preserving shared heritage.

Evolution of India-UAE Bilateral Relations

  • Diplomatic Milestones: Diplomatic ties began in 1972; elevated to a comprehensive strategic partnership with India’s PM visit in 2017.
  • Economic Ties: Bilateral trade reached USD 85 billion in 2022-23. UAE is India’s third-largest trading partner. Targets include USD 100 billion trade and USD 15 billion in services in five years.
  • Business Investments: Indian firms operate in UAE’s diverse sectors. UAE is key to India’s FTA strategy, with an interim trade agreement planned.
  • Cultural Connection: Over 3.3 million Indians live in the UAE. Indian cinema and culture are influential, with active participation in cultural and yoga events.
  • Fintech Collaboration: RuPay card acceptance and Rupee-Dirham settlement system boost digital payments and local currency transactions.
  • Energy Security: UAE supports India’s energy needs with strategic oil reserves.
  • Regional Engagement: Both countries participate in regional initiatives like I2U2 and IMEC, showcasing strategic alignment.

US Politics and War Dynamics

  • Biden’s Support: President Biden’s backing of Israel includes military aid and diplomatic support, but rising civilian casualties in Gaza fuel domestic debate.
  • Trump’s Potential Return: A return of Trump could disrupt policies with his unpredictable stance on Netanyahu and the Israel-Palestine conflict, leading to further instability.
  • Domestic Debate: Growing civilian toll in Gaza intensifies US domestic and international scrutiny of Biden’s Israel support, reflecting broader concerns.
  • Election Impact: Upcoming US elections will crucially determine future policies on Israel and Palestine, influencing the conflict’s trajectory.
  • Policy Uncertainty: Trump’s potential comeback may alter established policies and alliances, adding unpredictability to US involvement in the Middle East.
  • Strategic Shifts: Diverging policies of Biden and Trump will impact US-Israel relations and the geopolitical landscape, affecting conflict resolution efforts.

Future of Two-State Solution

  • Diminished Prospects: The feasibility of the two-state solution is reduced by internal Palestinian divisions and expanding Israeli settlements.
  • Historical Challenges: Previous attempts, such as the Peel Commission and Oslo Process, illustrate persistent difficulties in achieving a two-state solution.
  • Political Obstacles: Rising Israeli right-wing influence and a weakened Palestinian Authority complicate progress towards a two-state solution.
  • Current Dynamics: Resistance from Israelis to a Palestinian state and Palestinian skepticism about achieving a viable two-state solution hinder progress.
  • Long-Term Aspiration: Despite its potential, the two-state solution remains a distant goal due to current political and territorial challenges.
  • Future Uncertainty: Ongoing political and territorial issues will shape the viability and future of the two-state solution.

Way Forward

  1. Facilitate Negotiations: Promote inclusive talks between Israeli and Palestinian representatives to secure a ceasefire and long-term peace.
  2. Support Mediation: Back international and regional mediation efforts to address humanitarian and political issues in peace talks.
  3. Increase Aid: Enhance humanitarian assistance for Gaza, focusing on both immediate relief and sustainable recovery.
  4. Foster Regional Cooperation: Encourage Middle Eastern nations to work together to stabilize the region and reduce conflict.
  5. Reaffirm Two-State Commitment: Support negotiations aimed at resolving key issues like borders, security, and refugees for a two-state solution.
  6. Resolve Political Divides: Address internal political divisions in Israel and Palestine to enable a unified approach to peace.
  7. Ensure Compliance: Implement and monitor mechanisms to enforce ceasefire agreements and peace deals, addressing violations effectively.

Conclusion

The Gaza conflict’s complexity highlights urgent needs for diplomatic solutions and international cooperation. While the two-state solution faces significant hurdles, the ongoing global debate and shifting geopolitical dynamics emphasize the necessity for renewed efforts towards peace and stability in the Middle East.

Source:Indian Express

Mains Practice Question:

Discuss the implications of the Gaza conflict on international diplomatic relations and global security. How should India navigate its role in promoting peace while addressing its own strategic interests? Evaluate the potential for a two-state solution in the current geopolitical context.

Associated Article:

https://universalinstitutions.com/indias-evolving-stance-on-gaza-israel-conflict/