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INDIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC JOURNEY OF HITS AND MISSES
Relevance: GS 1 – Population and Associated Issues
Why in the News?
- World Population Day is observed on July 11, established by the United Nations in 1989.
- The concept was proposed by K.C. Zachariah, a renowned demographer.
- As of now, the global population is estimated to be around 8.1 billion, with India being the most populous nation at approximately 1.44 billion, slightly surpassing China’s population.
- India’s demographic journey includes:
- Pulling back from the brink of a demographic disaster.
- Striving to reach the target year of 2030 for the Sustainable Development Goals.
Population Trends in the 1970s and beyond
- Global population growth rate was at 2% per year.
- Predicted doom for India with widespread poverty, hunger, and deaths anticipated.
- Contrary to predictions, subsequent decades revealed different outcomes.
- Improvements in Global and Indian Demographics
- Rapid decline in global fertility rates.
- Increased life expectancy due to better living conditions and medical infrastructure.
- India’s fertility rates began to fall since the 1970s, currently below the replacement level.
- Significant progress in health parameters in India: Reductions in maternal mortality, Reductions in child mortality.
UPSC Topic : INDIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC JOURNEY OF HITS AND MISSES
India’s Population Dynamics
| Key Components
Fertility
Mortality
Migration: Rapid rural-to-urban migration posing challenges to urban infrastructure. |
Implications of Changing Dynamics
-
- Fertility Reduction:
- Transition towards smaller family norms.
- Potential for a demographic dividend with a larger working-age population than dependent population.
- Need to create employment for the young workforce.
- Mortality Decline and Increased Life Expectancy
- Average life expectancy has increased from 61 years to 70 years in the year 1997 to 2024.
- Reflect robust healthcare system and improved living standards.
- Long-term plans needed for population ageing, focusing on geriatric care and social security benefits.
- Economic Growth:
- Per capita GDP has increased sixfold, from $400 to $2,400.
- This indicates substantial economic growth and development over the years.
- Regional Disparities:
- Poverty is not evenly distributed across the country.
- Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Jharkhand account for 83% of the national total of people below the poverty line, despite comprising only 34% of India’s total population.
- Addressing these disparities is a priority for both central and state governments.
- Fertility Reduction:
Impact on Climate change
The impact of climate change presents a significant challenge for India, affecting its population disproportionately compared to developed nations. Here are some key points to consider:
Per Capita Consumption Disparity:
- OECD countries, with a per capita income of $40,000 and a population of 1.39 billion, consume $55.6 trillion worth of natural resources and goods.
- In contrast, India, with a per capita GDP of $2,400 and a population of 1.44 billion, consumes only $3.5 trillion worth.
- This disparity in consumption patterns is a major contributor to global warming and adverse climate effects.
Impact on Developing Nations:
- Climate change exacerbates unpredictable weather patterns, disproportionately affecting poorer populations in developing countries.
- These populations often lack adequate housing and infrastructure to withstand extreme weather events, leading to more severe impacts.
Economic Priorities vs. Climate Change Mitigation:
- With 11% of its population still below the poverty line, India prioritizes economic growth to alleviate poverty.
- Mitigating climate change, while crucial, competes with immediate economic development needs for resources and attention.
Global Responsibility and Negotiations:
- India advocates at global forums for its right to pursue economic growth to uplift its population from poverty.
- The responsibility to mitigate climate change is increasingly seen as shared among OECD countries and emerging economies like China.
India’s SDG Journey – No Poverty, Zero Hunger, and Good Health
Addressing economic inequality, malnutrition, and the dual disease burden are critical for achieving the SDGs by 2030.
- No Poverty
- Poverty rate reduced from 48% in 1990 to 10% in 2019.
- Despite the significant reduction, 10% of 144 crore still represents a large number of 16 crore people living in poverty.
- Key initiatives:
- Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) in 2006.
- Janani Suraksha Yojana of 2005 for cash benefits to pregnant women.
- Zero Hunger
- Self-sufficiency in crop production achieved through the Green Revolution.
- Hunger rate reduced from 18.3% in 2001 to 16.6% in 2021.
- Challenges:
- India contributes a third of the global malnutrition burden.
- POSHAN Abhiyaan launched in 2018, but the Zero Hunger target by 2030 remains challenging.
- Good Health
- Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) decreased from 384.4 in 2000 to 102.7 in 2020.
- Under-five mortality rate and infant mortality rate have also seen significant declines.
- Progress attributed to improved healthcare quality and coverage.
- Road to 2030
- Population dynamics intersect with development goals.
- Addressing gender equality and socio-cultural divides essential for sustainable development.
- Comprehensive understanding of population issues crucial for achieving true sustainable development by 2030.
Sustainable development requires a holistic approach that ensures equitable distribution of development benefits and addresses socio-economic disparities.
Challenges to Population Dynamics
While India has made notable progress in poverty reduction, self-sufficiency in food production, and healthcare improvements, significant challenges remain.
- Urbanisation
- Need for sustainable urban infrastructure to accommodate rapid migration.
- Gender Inequality
- Importance of women’s labor force participation.
- Addressing women’s political representation and societal challenges.
- Gender equality critical for achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
- Economic Inequality
- Top 10% of the population holds 77% of the national wealth.
- Top 1% holds 40% of the total wealth.
- Equitable distribution of development benefits is crucial for sustainable development.
- Hunger and Nutrition
- India ranked 111 out of 125 countries in the Global Hunger Index (2023).
- High rates of stunting, wasting, and underweight among children below five years.
- High prevalence of anemia among women.
- Health Sector Challenges
- Double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCDs).
- Early onset of NCDs and rising health needs of the elderly.
Key Areas for India to Focus On to Achieve the SDGs
- Acknowledge Changing Population Dynamics in Policy Formation: Integrate population changes into policy development.
- Address Income Inequality
- Implement measures to reduce the wealth gap.
- Ensure equitable distribution of development benefits.
- Harness the Demographic Dividend
- Create job opportunities for the youth.
- Invest in education and skill development programs.
- Address Changing Health Needs
- Tackle the rise of non-communicable diseases (NCDs).
- Provide a stronger safety net to protect families from high out-of-pocket medical expenses.
- Strengthen healthcare infrastructure and services.
- Improve Nutrition Programs
- Enhance and expand existing nutrition initiatives.
- Increase budgetary allocation for health and nutrition sectors.
- Promote Gender Equality
- Empower vulnerable women and ensure gender equality in all sectors.
- Implement gender-sensitive policies and programs.
- Ensure Multi-sectoral Collaboration and Political Will
- Foster collaboration between different sectors and stakeholders.
- Demonstrate strong political commitment to achieving the SDGs.
Associate articles
https://universalinstitutions.com/elderly-population-in-india/
https://universalinstitutions.com/charting-a-path-for-the-population-committee/
https://universalinstitutions.com/preparation-for-an-aging-population/U
Mains question
“Discuss the evolving dynamics of population in India, focusing on demographic shifts, socio-economic implications, and policy measures needed to address challenges and harness opportunities. (250 words)”
