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AS RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT REACHES TWO YEAR MARK, IT IS ADVANTAGE PUTIN
Relevance: GS 2 – Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.
Why in the News?
- Earlier this month, Avdiivka, a crucial city on the Ukrainian defensive line in the Donetsk region, was seized by Russian forces.
- The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, now in its third year, remains at a stalemate.
- The tide of the war appears to be gradually shifting in Russia’s favor.
- While it’s premature to forecast a definitive outcome, significant changes may occur incrementally before reaching a tipping point.
Transition from Maneuver Warfare to War of Attrition
- Initially characterized by maneuver warfare, the conflict has evolved into a war of attrition.
- The shift in strategy aims to exhaust the opponent’s political will, economic strength, and military capacity.
- Russia, as the larger country with superior resources, benefits from this approach.
- Russian leadership, supported by its General Staff, has developed and implemented a strategy focused on grinding down Ukrainian capabilities.
Current Military Dynamics
- The Russian military has adapted its tactics on the battlefield to align with the new strategy. These adjustments contribute to the success of the attrition-based approach.
- The primary objective is to deplete the opponent’s political resolve, economic resources, and military capabilities through attrition.
- An expanded defence industry has provided Russia with the necessary tools to execute its strategy
- The availability of resources from the defence sector enhances Russia’s capacity to sustain the war of attrition.
- Prolonged wars, such as the one in Ukraine, are inherently messy and complex.
- While Russia holds a military advantage, it’s not yet insurmountable.
- The Russian Black Sea fleet remains docked to avoid potential unmanned marine vehicle attacks, indicating a defensive posture.
- Ukraine maintains substantial military potential, evidenced by the reinforcement of fighting units around Kramatorsk and towards Zaporizhzhia.
Naval Strategy and International Support
- The Russian Black Sea fleet remains docked to avoid potential attacks by unmanned marine vehicles.
- Ukraine continues to receive significant NATO support, potentially expanding to include long-range missiles, air defense, and electronic warfare capabilities.
- These areas are critical as Russia gains ground in terms of military capabilities.
- The conflict underscores valuable lessons, particularly regarding the risks of dependence on external support.
- Rapid shifts in the international context have progressively weakened Ukraine’s position, highlighting the dangers of being treated as proxies in conflicts involving major powers.
Challenges and Shifting Priorities
- Securing Aid from US: Ukraine faces challenges in securing aid, as evidenced by delays in a substantial assistance package from the US Congress but a $60 billion assistance package for Ukraine remains stalled in the US Congress.
- The debate has exposed significant domestic divisions regarding America’s international priorities.
- In 2022, Ukraine held an undisputed top position in these priorities.
- However, it now shares this spotlight with other issues such as Israel, Gaza, Taiwan, and securing the US’s southern border.
- Assistance Package from EU: The EU has approved a multi-year assistance package totaling $54 billion.
- West’s Stance on War: Despite a stalemate on the battlefield and leadership changes, Western capitals maintain a determined stance on war aims, including the vacation of Ukrainian territory and accountability for alleged war crimes.
- Ukraine’s war aims are rooted in the expectation of eventual victory, though whether this is realistic remains uncertain.
Strategic Timing of Putin’s Interview
- President Putin strategically chose the timing of his interview with American journalist Tucker Carlson to align with shifting sentiments in Western capitals, notably Washington.
- During the interview, Putin reiterated Russia’s historical and current perspectives on the Ukraine conflict.
- Russian War Aims and Long-Term Strategy While Russian war aims may not be limitless, a potential peace settlement for Ukraine is expected to extend beyond the country’s borders.
- Putin’s strategic move is oriented towards the long game, with the ultimate goal of establishing a new understanding with the US, considering a decisive breakthrough in Ukrainian resistance as a prerequisite.
NATO Deficiencies and Ukraine’s Immediate Needs
- Sharp deficiencies in NATO defense stockpiles and industrial capacities have been exposed, requiring a considerable amount of time to address.
- The uneven defense spending among NATO states does not provide immediate relief to Ukraine, which urgently requires support.
- Security Agreements and Analogies: In response to immediate defense needs, the UK, Germany, and France have entered agreements committing security support in the event of future Russian aggression.
- These agreements are likened to medical insurance packages that, similar to healthcare coverage, may not be applicable to existing challenges.
Global Impact of the Conflict
- The ongoing conflict between the West and Russia creates a state of semi-permanent tension, leading to a fraying of deterrence equations among major powers.
- This imbalance in Eurasia’s equilibrium primarily benefits China, given its strategic interests in the region.
- What began as a European conflict has reverberated globally, affecting energy, food, and financial linkages.
- Russia’s actions, including undercutting French influence in the Sahel region of Africa, demonstrate the conflict’s broader reach.
- The Russia-North Korea relationship has strengthened in response to the Ukraine conflict, contributing to North Korea’s assertive nuclear posture.
- Other crises in the region, such as Iran’s proto-nuclear capability, are overshadowed, leaving critical issues unaddressed.
Challenges to Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
- Russia’s de-ratification of the CTBT and the stagnation of traditional arms control mechanisms signal a broader malaise in the non-proliferation regime.
- US talks with China on arms control face significant challenges amid the escalating global tensions.
Consequences for Eurasian Security
- The semi-permanent conflict between the West and Russia destabilizes the Eurasian continent, creating a sense of disequilibrium.
- This situation primarily benefits China, which capitalizes on the confusion surrounding America’s global strategy and resource allocation.
Impact on India’s Interests
- A prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict undermines Russia, compromises European security, and complicates US global rebalancing efforts, which are not in India’s interests.
- Need for Constructive Engagement and Negotiation
- Partial battlefield gains do not translate into significant gains at the negotiating table, emphasizing the importance of constructive engagement.
- A lasting settlement requires the inclusion of Russia in efforts to reconstruct European security, as trans-Atlantic security cannot be built on global insecurity.
- Overcoming this crisis requires a combination of competence in grand strategy and common sense.
Mains question
In light of the global ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, discuss its impact on arms control and India’s interests, emphasizing the need for constructive engagement. (250 marks)
