• UGI USER
  • Jan 04, 2024
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UNRAVELLING THE DYNAMICS: INDIA-MALDIVES

( Hydrography Pact and Strategic Shifts )

 

Syllabus:

GS2 : 

  • India and its Neighborhood- Relations.
  • Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries on India’s interests

Why in the News?

  • The recent decision by the Maldives to terminate its joint hydrographic survey agreement with India has sparked concern and signified strained relations between the two nations.
  • This move, coupled with the Maldives’ request for the withdrawal of Indian military presence, highlights a shifting geopolitical landscape.
Source: UGI

Evolution Of India Maldives Relations:

  • 1965: Independence and Diplomatic Relations
  • With Maldives’ independence in 1965 India promptly established diplomatic ties, opening its mission in Male in 1972.
  • 1978: Strengthening Ties under President Gayoom
  • Numerous visits to India during his tenure contributed to stronger India-Maldives relations.
  • 1988: Indian Intervention
  • In 1988, Indian troops and ships assisted in quelling a coup attempt, reinforcing ties.
  • 2008: Closer Security Cooperation
  • India provided helicopters, aircraft, and patrol boats for maritime operations.
  • 2013: Strains and Pro-China Shift
  • Abdulla Yameen’s 2013 presidency strained India-Maldives ties.
  • Pro-China policies, FTA with China, and threats to evict Indian personnel marked this period.
  • 2018: India-First Policy
  • Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s 2018 win ushered in the India-First Policy.
  • Infrastructure projects, including the Greater Male connectivity and Uthuru Thilafalhu, strengthened ties.
  • 2021 : India Out Campaign
  • The 2021 Uthuru Thilafalhu project aimed at a coast guard harbour base sparked the “India Out” campaign.

Significance of Maldives for India:

  • Geo-Economic Importance:
  • Strategically located at key trade routes in the Indian Ocean.
  • Critical for India’s external trade, with 50% passing through its sea lanes.
  • Geo-Political Cooperation:
  • Active partnership in regional groupings like Colombo Security Conclave, IORA, SAARC, SASEC, and SAGAR.
  • Supports India’s bid for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council.
  • Security Alliance:
  • Acts as the first line of defence for India against terrorism, piracy, drug trafficking, and maritime crime.
  • Geographical position crucial for monitoring choke points in the western and eastern Indian Ocean.
  • Indian Diaspora Presence:
  • Hosts a significant Indian Diaspora.
  • Indians contribute to various sectors like education, healthcare, tourism, and hospitality in Maldives.

Background of the Hydrography Pact:

  • The agreement was initiated during the Indian Prime Minister’s 2019 visit, symbolizing strengthened India-Maldives defence ties.
  • The pact’s abrupt termination by the Maldives aligns with a broader pattern of distancing from India since President Mohamed Muizzu’s election in November 2023.
Source: ToI

The Trust Deficit:

  • Trust levels between India and the Maldives have visibly diminished.
  • Muizzu’s administration asserts autonomy but appears to align more closely with China, impacting its strategic decisions.
  • The hydrography pact’s cancellation seems driven by a desire to facilitate China’s marine surveys, emphasizing the geopolitical implications.

Factors Contributing to Trust Deficit :

  • The Maldives expresses apprehensions about India’s hydrographic activity being perceived as intelligence collection.
  • Legal frameworks governing hydrography and military surveys share similarities, contributing to Maldives’ concerns.
  • The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) does not explicitly authorize coastal states to regulate hydrographic surveys outside their territorial sea.
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)

·  The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is an international treaty that defines the rights and responsibilities of nations regarding the use of the world’s oceans.

·  It establishes guidelines for maritime boundaries, territorial waters, and exclusive economic zones, promoting international cooperation in ocean governance.

·  UNCLOS, adopted in 1982, provides a comprehensive framework for managing resources and resolving disputes related to the seas.

India’s Hydrographic Contributions:

  • India has a commendable track record in hydrographic surveys, assisting nations like Mauritius in capacity building.
  • The Maldives, aiming to enhance maritime awareness and security, would benefit more from partnering with India rather than opting for strategic alignment with China.

Benefits of Hydrographic Survey :

  • Hydrographic data serves both civilian and military purposes.
  • Helps in navigational safety, marine research, and in environmental monitoring.

The China Factor:

  • Benefits of Ocean Mapping for China:
  • China’s ocean surveys significantly enhance its anti-submarine warfare capabilities.
  • Mapping ocean features aids in improving sonar performance, detecting enemy submarines, and refining tactics for coastal combat.
  • Chinese Naval Base Speculation: 
  • There are conjectures in New Delhi hinting at China’s potential plans to establish a naval base in the Maldives, heightening strategic apprehensions.
  • India’s Impact on China’s Strategy: 
  • Presence of Indian hydrographic vessels in Maldivian waters potentially disrupts China’s strategic goals in the Indian Ocean.

Challenges in India-Maldives Relations:

Domestic Political Grievances:

  • Weakening democratic institutions.
  • Fragile democracy susceptible to radical ideologies without effective governance.

Hub of Terrorism:

  • Political and socio-economic instability fueling the rise of Islamist radicalism.
  • Maldives being radicalized, accounting for a high number of ISIS terrorists per capita.
  • Radicalization influenced by Saudi Arabia.

Chinese Factor:

  • Growing Chinese influence through Beijing-led investment projects.
  • Maldives is part of China’s “String of Pearls” construct in South Asia.

Economic Factors:

  • Extremely low bilateral trade with no Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Maldives and India.

Anti-India Sentiments – ‘India Out’ Campaign:

  • Controversy over Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopters gifted by India.
  • Some portray India’s military presence through the helicopters.
  • Lack of transparency in agreements signed between Solih government and India.
INDIA OUT Campaign

The “India Out” campaign, initiated by the opposition coalition PPM and PNC, calls for the removal of Indian military personnel from the Maldives, both through street demonstrations and on social media. Reports circulating in the Maldivian media claim that the current government is allegedly permitting India to establish a covert military base in exchange for financial support or other advantages.

Way Forward:

Perception Management:

  • Address concerns raised by the ‘India Out’ campaign.
  • Work on improving India’s image among ordinary citizens in the Maldives.

Collaboration on Climate Change:

  • Explore potential for joint efforts against maritime impacts of climate change.
  • Implement policies with cultural, geo-economic, and geostrategic sensitivity.

SAGAR Vision:

  • Leverage India’s Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) vision for regional cooperation.

Vigilance Regarding China:

  • Acknowledge inability to control China’s presence in the Maldives.
  • Exercise vigilance to monitor and respond to Chinese activities.
  • Addressing these challenges requires proactive measures, including improved communication, cooperation on shared concerns, and strategic policy implementation.

The Maldives’ decision to terminate the hydrography pact reflects deeper geopolitical shifts, aligning more closely with China. While India’s hydrographic activities may be perceived as a point of contention, the strategic consequences of a closer partnership with Beijing should be carefully considered by the Maldives’ leadership.

 

Source: 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/an-india-out-plan-that-could-impact-the-maldives/article67699297.ece/amp/

Mains Practice Question:

Critically analyze the India-Maldives relations, focusing on the termination of the hydrographic survey agreement. Discuss the factors contributing to the strained relationship and suggest potential ways to rebuild trust.