• UGI USER
  • Dec 01, 2023
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SHIFTING DYNAMICS IN MYANMAR’S CIVIL WAR

Why in the News?

The Tatmadaw faces unprecedented challenges since the February 2021 coup, with recent events indicating a potential shift in the civil war dynamics.

Source: CRSREPORT

The Current Scenario:

  • Since staging a coup on February 1, 2021, the Myanmar military has carried out a brutal nationwide crackdown on millions of people opposed to its rule.
  • The junta security forces have carried out mass killings, arbitrary arrests, torture, sexual violence, and other abuses that amount to crimes against humanity.

Three Brotherhood Alliance’s Coordinated Attacks:

  • Coordinated attacks by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (TBA) since late October have led to significant losses for the ruling junta.
  • Scores of bases have been lost, and the Tatmadaw finds itself stretched thin as it battles opposition militias, particularly in rural areas.

Peoples’ Defense Forces and Ethnic Armed Forces:

  • In response to the junta’s crackdowns, the National Unity Government (NUG) and its allies formed the Peoples’ Defense Forces, challenging the Tatmadaw.
  • Ethnic armed forces, including Karen, Kachin, Chin, and Karenni, engage in hostilities, contributing to the junta’s weakening hold.

Ceasefire Groups Joining the Civil War:

  • Ceasefire groups like the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and the Arakan Army shift from ceasefire status to active involvement in the civil war.
  • The junta faces challenges in the northern Shan State and heightened hostilities in Rakhine State.

International Response and India’s Dilemma:

  • While most international actors condemn the coup, only the European Parliament recognizes the NUG as Myanmar’s legitimate government.
  • India, cautious about countering China’s influence, maintains ties with the junta but faces dilemmas amid the Tatmadaw’s tyrannical actions and growing resistance.

Reviewing Ties with the Junta:

  • As the NUG gains legitimacy and envisions a federal, democratic Myanmar, India is urged to reassess its ties with the junta.

The Tatmadaw’s violent approaches against civilians and the rising resistance call for a reconsideration of India’s stance in the evolving Myanmar scenario.