The Ministry of Statistics has released a revised draft policy on official statistics.
Reforming India’s Statistical System: A Call for Transformation
In the midst of growing scrutiny and criticism of India’s statistical system, the Ministry of Statistics has released a revised draft policy on official statistics.
However, this draft policy falls short of expectations, lacking a comprehensive roadmap for revitalizing the nation’s statistical infrastructure.
While it raises noteworthy points about administrative statistics, the policy’s overall impact remains disappointing.
A Diluted Draft Policy and its Historical Context
The current draft policy appears diluted compared to its predecessor from 2018.
This previous version emerged two years after India adopted the UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics, aimed at safeguarding statistical integrity and impartiality while respecting citizen privacy.
The 2018 draft held the promise of insulating statistical activities from political pressures and promoting greater autonomy for the National Statistical Commission (NSC), which has languished without statutory backing for almost two decades.
The Consequences of Absent Oversight
The absence of an effective statistical regulator has profound consequences. Quality assessments and audits for Indian statistics are irregular, leaving data users to navigate a landscape of varying data quality with limited guidance.
Disputes over statistical outputs often linger unresolved for extended periods and can become politically charged.
The absence of an empowered statistical regulator has stymied the growth of India’s statistical system.
Empowerment of the National Statistical Commission
The 2018 draft identified the critical need to empower the NSC, a sentiment shared even by the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (Mospi).
The ministry acknowledged that despite the NSC’s efforts to enhance the statistical system through its Annual Reports, substantial structural changes remained unaddressed.
The ministry’s vision document for 2019-24 emphasized the necessity of reinforcing the NSC’s professional autonomy to make effective and implementable recommendations.
However, the current draft policy fails to address this need for NSC empowerment and omits a proposed code of statistical practice that would have enhanced transparency in data releases.
Administrative Data’s Potential and Challenges
The current draft policy acknowledges the potential of harnessing administrative data sets generated through routine functions like vehicle registration and taxation.
These data sources are relatively inexpensive but are hindered by inconsistent quality, varying definitions across departments, and frequent changes in administrative rules.
Incorporating these data sets into regular statistical products requires careful consideration of these challenges.
Misconception about Surveys and Administrative Data
The draft policy erroneously suggests that greater use of administrative data could replace the need for surveys.
This notion is flawed, as even countries with robust administrative data sets like the US and UK continue to rely on household and business surveys.
Administrative data might reduce reliance on certain types of surveys, but surveys remain indispensable for tracking changes in various economic parameters, especially in sectors with incomplete administrative records or large informal economies.
Complementary Role of Surveys and Administrative Records
Surveys and administrative records often complement each other. Improving administrative records can enhance survey quality, and vice versa.
For instance, better coverage of factories by factory inspectors can enhance the quality of the Annual Survey of Industries, which relies on these lists.
Surveys also play a crucial role in verifying the coverage of administrative data sets, as demonstrated by the Registrar General of India’s reliance on surveys to validate birth and death registrations.
The Need for a Comprehensive Reforms Commission
In light of the shortcomings of the current draft policy, there is a pressing need to establish a high-level statistical reforms commission led by an impartial statistician or technocrat.
This commission should collaboratively develop a comprehensive statistical strategy document, involving key stakeholders including non-official data users.
Such an effort is essential to meet the informational needs of citizens, policymakers, and investors, ensuring the robustness and transparency of India’s statistical framework.
The Draft National Policy on Official Statistics, 2018
Classification of Statistical Products
The official statistical system will categorize statistical products into two groups: core statistics and other official statistics.
Core Statistics Definition and Importance
Core statistics encompass data of national significance and critical relevance to the economy. For example, National Income is a core statistical indicator.
Constitutional Amendments for Expanded Censuses
Constitutional amendments will be pursued to enable censuses on subjects beyond population and to designate specific statistics as nationally significant through legislation enacted by the Parliament.
Separation of Production and Regulatory Functions
While the government will continue to oversee the production of official statistics, regulatory and advisory functions will be established outside the governmental framework.
Centralised Decision-Making Tendency
The policy statement suggests a trend towards centralising authority and decision-making within structured entities like the National Statistical Commission (NSC), as observed by Sociologist Sonalde Desai.
Establishment of Registered Society under MOSPI
A registered society under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) will be established to oversee all government data collection and analysis activities.
Committee-Based Identification of Statistical Products
Committees will be formed to identify and designate specific statistical products for inclusion in the official statistical system.
Tailored Quality Assurance Frameworks
Product-specific Quality Assurance Frameworks aligned with the NQAF will be developed and enforced to ensure product-specific quality standards.
Incentives for NQAF Compliance
Incentives and awards will be introduced to encourage compliance with the National Quality Assurance Framework (NQAF).
Periodic Statistical Audits
Independent agencies will conduct regular statistical audits of major statistical products to uphold their integrity and accuracy.
Confidentiality Standards
Stringent standards for protecting confidentiality will be established to safeguard sensitive data.
Mandatory Implementation of Statistical Practice Code
The Code of Statistical Practice will be obligatory for implementation to ensure consistency and ethical conduct in statistical operations.
Transparency in Dataset Sharing
Details about shareable and non-shareable official statistical datasets will be periodically published, accompanied by reasons for such classifications.
Evaluate the impact of the new draft policy on official statistics in India. Assess how these reforms can address challenges and enhance the credibility and applicability of India’s statistical system. 250words.
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